Friday, October 5, 2007

Technical or Fundamental Analysis (Forecasting)

In this article I compare these two methods of forecasting in the stock market. I give the reasoning that why technical analysis is superior to fundamental analysis.

As you know, technical analysis concentrates on the study of market action, and fundamental analysis concentrates on the economic forces of supply and demand that cause price movements.

Fundamentalists try to determine the intrinsic value of the stocks. They examine all factors that affect on price. If the intrinsic value is under the current price, fundamentalist sells the stock because stock is over priced. If price is below the intrinsic value then market is undervalued and should be bought.

Fundamentalists study the cause of market movements, but reasons of movements aren't important for technicians. Technicians believe that the price reflects the effect of all events that make change in price. Therefore study of price action is all that they require.

Most people use both technical and fundamental analysis to trade. Many technicians have basic knowledge on fundamental approach and many fundamentalists have basic knowledge on technical analysis. But, most people have more interest on one method.

Why Technical Analysis

Fundamentalists must find the reasons of price movement. Sometimes this act is very complicated; there are so many factors that make change on price such as political, psychotically events and so on. To trade the fundamentalist must study and research tremendous amount of data that takes so much time and effort.

Technical analysis is Flexible and Adaptable

You can apply technical rules to every market either stocks or futures or any other market. The technician easily can follow many markets in the same time. This is a great strength because you can catch big movements in each market.

Trading in different Time Dimensions

You can use technical rules for daytrading, swingtrading, long term trading and etc. rules are the same you only change time of charts. Some people say technical analysis is only suitable for short term trading, but it is not true. Using weekly and monthly charts that refer to several years has proven the strength of technical analysis for long term trading.

By Mostafa Soleimanzadeh. Stock Market Tips, Learn Stock Market Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis in his website.