In the Eye of the Beholder

In July of 2005, the Road Traffic Management Corporation reported that, during the 2003-2004 crash statistics reporting period, more people died on South African roads each day (one every 48 minutes) than people were killed in Iraq, an acknowledged war zone.

Historically, bad road conditions have only been responsible for roughly 5% of our accidents; human error, irresponsible and drunken driving have been said to cause far more bodily annihilation than poor road conditions.

The percentage of accidents for which bad road conditions are directly responsible, has leapt through 10% and is heading for 15%, Gary Ronald of the AASA, reported. As a result, the AA has begun a campaign to encourage road users to SMS the AA with information about poor road conditions. Potholes, missing traffic signs and flooding are notable concerns.

Theirs is not the only campaign of this nature. Whether they succeed in galvanising municipalities, provinces and highway management consultants into speedier and more competent repair action, is debatable.

The authorities must accept that poor road conditions not only affect crashes, but also cause considerable congestion, poor public-transport access and contribute significantly to the cost of vehicle maintenance. All of which directly affects people in all economic categories; their lives and their deaths.

Strategic objective (Department of Transports 2000 2005 The Road to Safety document)

In order to realise the mission, an equally clear and simple strategic objective is required. We have set this objective as being:"To reduce crashes, deaths and injuries on South Africas roads by 5% year-on-year until the year 2005 at a saving to the economy of R770 million per annum and then, based on the strengthened institutional platform created, by at least 10% year-on-year until the year 2009."The targets have been set in carefully separated stages to take realistic account of the constraints still facing us in the current phase of fundamental restructuring of road traffic safety management. This restructuring work lies at the heart of The Road to Safety.In 2005 we will thoroughly review the emerging statistical trends and, if these trends are as positive as we hope, recommit ourselves to the more ambitious target of 10% (or, if justified by progress, consider setting a higher target).

Ouch! Eina! And Eish! Enough said

Even the Minister of Transport had the grace to mention, in a message on the DoT website, ironically headed: Taking the road to Safety that there are serious disparities in road conditions, nationally.

Management and delivery

It is commonly considered politically correct to blame the previous regime for the state of our roads. Over a decade has passed since the newly victorious entered (left, through ballot box) with full knowledge that service delivery had not addressed the entire population for over a century and had been seriously diminished during the prior decade, as the ruling party non-comrades redirected their focus towards the more personal issue of coping on reduced income.

This is underscored by the state of the inherited rail system. Where once the rail service was quite phenomenal (envisioned by Rhodes in his dream of a monopoly from Cape to Cairo) branch lines and outlying stations were closed down in the late 80s declared unprofitable in a country where an independent public transport/taxi industry was becoming a noticeable force.

Assets that are not adequately maintained will very soon become liabilities a rule of life just as first-time homeowners discover that their bond payments are negligible when compared to the cost of maintaining and improving their home over the life of its bond. And like bond interest, negligence compounds, until renovation becomes virtually unaffordable. It follows that the budget necessary to maintain and expand South Africas once-excellent road structure is now exorbitant.

Other factors, like the refusal by many, to pay for services, tax evasion of many working in informal-sector industries (crime and drug dealing, for instance), the migration of people to our cities (and a hybridised shack-dwelling lifestyle) and the high rate of unemployment, have made it even more difficult to restore what has now been neglected for at least two decades.

Now that the penny seems to have dropped, so has its value and maintenance costs have soared.

Public evolution

Moreover, as jobs have become more available to a wider market and the economy develops, so those who once might never have expected to travel further from home than their closest town, have become frequent and seasoned travellers. Large numbers have afforded their own vehicles and enjoy complete freedom of movement.

Sanctions ensured that instruments of industry, such as ports, freight transport and the other trappings of healthy economies, became fairly unprofitable. Not only those aboard the previous gravy train paid the price of sanctions. Despite surges in the economy, the technological era, an ultra-just constitution and definitive labour laws have marginalized ordinary people.

It was no secret that virtually every sphere of public business was bound to need urgent regeneration, come 1994. It is hardly surprising that our roads have taken such a beating, now that more vehicles are pounding past us, more times, on a daily basis.

First prize will surely go to a plan that incorporates most of what South Africa urgently needs to set her people free.

Ditches to nowhere

Across the sea, America has a similar history to ours vast tracts of land colonised by pasty, white foreigners, who credited the native Americans and their own slaves, with debatably fewer rights than those awarded to their South African counterparts.

There, Franklin D Roosevelt, is famed for his Five Year Plan. On the return of many thousand troops from World War I, unemployment and hardship were rife as America sank into a post-war recession. His plan ensured that jobs, mainly requiring unskilled labour, were available for returning troops.

They didnt pay much, but they did prevent families from starving and labourers moved to outlying and eventually, rural areas, as they followed the projects initiated, creating a magnificent infrastructure for the USA.

Roosevelts Five Year Plan opened up areas where no thinking person would previously have chosen to live and presented new, unforeseen opportunities for necessary service industries and businesses.

As projects were completed, so the state was slowly relieved of the salary burden. Individuals bought land and established entire communities.

Gold rush

South Africans will see the similarity to our colonial past, with gold and diamonds the local incentive. Despite the fact that the colonial and Apartheid eras are so criticised, they did achieve for South Africa many of those features that modern society considers essential to well being up to a point.

There appears to be an incentive to repeat the American strategy in South Africa. It has, in fact, been introduced in at least one province already, to a lesser degree. In KZN, rural people, many female breadwinners, are employed by the state to keep rural roads passable: fill in potholes, cut grass and alert the authorities to essential, urgent, major repairs after extreme weather conditions.

This presently only ensures that some rural families have regular, if meagre, income. But it works! To complete bigger projects, it only needs to work better. The more jobs that are made available in rural areas, the more incentive there is for city squatters to return to those areas.

The strategy could provide countless benefits, in the shape of thriving communities that would need more shops, services and facilities.

Funding

South Africa has, altogether, a road network of some 65 000km. The South African National Roads Agency Limited (SANRAL) is mandated is to develop, maintain and manage South Africa's 7 200 km national road network comprising over R30 billion in assets, excluding land.

In September 2005, SANRAL reported a spend of R1.2 billion for maintaining the national road network during the 2004/2005 financial year. Revenue had grown from R1.3 billion to R2.2 billion profit stood at R406 million. SANRALs annual report stated that the road network had grown by 1 560km (77% of which were non-toll roads) during that period, to a total of 10 880km.

When the agency was formed in 1998, the intention of DoT was to decrease its annual Treasury subsidy until it became self-supporting; the entire point being that it should function as a private entity, despite its responsibility to report to the Minister of Transport, its owner and sole shareholder.

In July 2006, Minister Radebe quoted (in reply to a parliamentary question) that public funds for national roads will almost triple (from the R1.2-billion allocated for 2002/2003) to R3.5-billion by the 2008/2009 financial year. Over the same period, provincial road allocations will grow from R5.2 billion to R11.8 billion. The private sector has apparently contributed more than R9 billion via concession contracts for national roads, since 1998 (iafrica, 24/7/06).

Although we are regularly told that government is unable to budget sufficient to keep roads maintained and that plans are afoot to surtax the driving public in some provinces, supplementary to the fuel levy, no mention was made as to whether the above amounts included the levy or not.

Question time

Pertinent questions occur:

Does SANRAL still benefit from a government subsidy, despite its 2004/2005 R406 million profit?

Does Treasury release the fuel levy to DoT in Pretoria, to provincial government, municipalities or to SANRAL? And how regularly does this happen?

Which specific projects have been funded from the levy during the years of its existence? (Do we know how it has been spent?)

How do we know that there really is insufficient funding for road maintenance?

How are the funds that are collected from traffic notices, provincially and municipally, used?

Although government policy dictates transparency, the public will only be told as much as it asks to know. In clichd terms: if we dont know the answers, were asking the wrong questions.

As those working within public service structures are aware, the transport discipline falls under various departments in different provinces: Transport, Public Works or Safety and Security. Thus, in different provinces, road engineering and maintenance are accorded different priorities. No wonder, service delivery standards are not constant.

Ball control

If hosting the 2010 World Cup galvanises Transport into action, it will have served a useful purpose. Should it result in an influx of buses, taxis and freight transport, the success of a few months bustling activity could turn into disaster for the future the road infrastructure being already inadequate for the amount of traffic using it.

In June 2006, Naamsa reported a total of 35 071 passenger vehicles were sold during May (a 16.6% increase on the same month in 2005). Business Day then reported, in July 2006, that the road infrastructure does not have sufficient capacity to carry current volumes.

Small wonder, then that congestion paranoia is heightened. It will take far more than a few jolly soccer matches, still four years ahead, for government to confront and conquer the backlog. Add into the equation: a shortage of engineers and it seems clear that the road environment in SA is unlikely to improve much, soon.

Supply chain

Eyefortransports view (6/7/05) that the local capacity crisis in the transportation industry is only a reflection of a similar, global situation where demand outstrips capacity and the reason for the speed at which our roads are deteriorating, becomes apparent, is not comforting.

Between the 2002/2003 and 2005/2006 financial years, Engineering News (14-20/7/06) reported an increase of 16.5% heavy trucks registered. This article also mentioned decreases in rail locomotives (33%) and rail wagons (28%) for the same period, so we should not expect, it seems, Spoornets rolling stock to be saving our socks any time soon!

Perhaps consideration should be given to whether our heavy transport toll fees are covering the cost of the resulting road damage. The perception is that rail prices itself out of the market, but it is possible that rail is only just covering costs that government transport budgets are actually subsidising in the freight transport industry, to the detriment of the bottomless pit of road maintenance.

The ratio of 1300 sedan to overloaded extra heavy in road damage just does not seem to be proportionate to the toll fees charged. Although it has been suggested that weighbridges should be installed at all toll plazas, to ensure that overload tolls are collected repeatedly over long trips (thus freeing up enforcement officials for other work) exercises of this nature are deemed too expensive.

Clearly, I havent done the arithmetic, but I do hope that someone has, because it appears to be an excellent long-term answer to a situation where fixing the roads is also considered too expensive!

Dedicated routes

A suggestion to build a dedicated freight transport highway between Johannesburg and Durban initially appeared to be innovative. The N3 presently carries immense loads and vehicle numbers, putting the safety of all who travel on it, at tremendous risk. Perhaps, though, we should pause to consider possible trends into the future:

Is the N3 likely to remain as congested by freight into the future?

Will the Richards Bay hub take some of the pressure off it in future years?

If so, would a dedicated freight transport highway duplicating the present N2 route, not prove a more sensible option?

If the present fuel depots in Durban are moved to Richards Bay or Coega, wouldnt a dedicated freight transport highway or pipeline from there to Gauteng be more worthwhile?

In fact, the amount of planned development reported for all South Africas ports, including Port Elizabeth and East London, is extensive. One wonders just how much coordination exists between one plan and another when bombarded by the numerous suggestions made in the press:

Cape Town Harbour, it seems, would like a bit of the Durban pie; Maputo provides easier harbour access for Gauteng (but has a problematic border post); the Eastern Cape expects a sharp increase in inland-moving road freight on a newly-built highway that will allow the province to compete with its more industrialised neighbours; 400-plus kilometres can be cut off the journey West, but for some reason isnt proving popular with freight transporters

We know that predictions made in the Moving South Africa report have already been outstripped. Has anyone in authority rehashed them? Have any statistical forecasts been done to establish where we will be in 5, 10 and 20 years? Does anyone really know which way we are heading and how we anticipate getting there? What logistical research capacity does Transport have?

Crystal gazing

After recent heavy rains and flooding, many roads, particularly those in the Eastern Cape, deteriorated significantly. Video clips on TV news programmes showed the N2 slipping seawards and dirt roads that were more crater than roadway. We could not but sympathise with anyone trusting vehicles to them. No driver with a loaded taxi would eagerly negotiate their terrors, even at walking pace. Only a yuppie intent on pushing his flashy, new SUV to its limits, could feel exhilaration.

We can all empathise with people in rural areas, subsisting on next to nothing, next to virtually nothing! Their lives have doubtless become far more lonely and difficult since so many of their neighbours joined the influx to the cities. Just as there is no logic in providing frequent public transport that may frequently travel empty, or almost empty, the fact is, that in under populated areas, keeping roads in tip-top condition is nigh impossible.

Few people are gainfully or regularly employed, few pay taxes and extreme poverty makes it tremendously difficult for people to find the fares for public transport. Retail therapy is simply not on their list of regular amusement. Yet, these people have as much need for reasonable roads as those of us whose health would vastly benefit from a quick walk to the shops.

The introduction of democratic community road safety forums encourages community participation in decisions about safety upgrades to township and rural roads. Based on the premise that some communities respond more positively to agreed changes and that those living in an area understand the prevailing conditions better than visiting professionals, the forums have proved extremely successful.

Whether urban or rural, whether in up-market or really poor areas, community road enhancement seems to have depended, latterly, quite heavily on a proliferation of one-way streets, speed humps, 4-way stops and traffic circles, all of which increase traffic congestion and totally negate a need for professional engineering abilities. Smooth traffic flow has been totally subjugated in favour of slowing traffic to a crawl.

Although these tactics were devoted to saving lives, interestingly, focus on congestion was limited until Trevor Manual complained publicly and bitterly about the amount of time it was taking him to get to work every morning. Have the decisions made by road safety forums reduced road deaths over the long term? Are road deaths in urban areas down? Now, that would be a really interesting piece of researchbecause, as far as we can calculate, the numbers are still climbing somewhere!

Warning bells

South Africa: home of the pothole, corrugations, blocked storm-water drains, washed-away craters, falling, thrown or strategically placed rocks and burning tyre barricades. There is little doubt that our road-user culture is one of a kind!

Road reports with up-to-date information on road conditions and ongoing road repairs are now available at the click of a mouse, through the press, radio and television. They even warn about hazardous weather conditions and recommend alternative routes. These general services to the public make pre-trip planning a pleasure and can also provide opportunities to avoid congestion.

But few of us would think to check, on a daily basis, that our route to work was not to be disrupted. Nor would potholes left by road workers the previous day, be mentioned there. Rush-hour traffic jams are often caused by unmarked, inner-city road works.

In February 2006, in a city downpour, several vehicles were immobilised and abandoned whilst negotiating a man-made trough that ran the entire width of Umgeni Road, in Durban. It had clearly remained unmarked the entire night. By 10:00, the area had still not been secured, nor was there any officer directing traffic.

Commuters battled the elements and various vehicle disabilities until noon, when sandbags were used to shore up the road. One wonders how many vehicles hit that hole (at the regulation 60kmph speed) in the dark the previous eveningno wonder our taxis are in such atrocious condition!

Last week, road workers in the next road to our home refilled holes to about ten centimetres below the surrounding road surface and left without marking the spot. The drivers who regularly use that road took a few days to remember, on approaching, to avoid itby moving into the oncoming lane.

Safe? Hardly; and then we wonder why our wheels are not balanced, our tyres wear quickly and our shock absorbers take strain. Yet, because we travel that road regularly, our perception remains that the road surface is reasonable.

Expect the worst

It is often said that the reason South Africans believe their roads are bad, is because they perceive them to be perfectwork that one out! In essence, because so many of our roads are actually excellent, we have an exceedingly low tolerance for those that are less than perfect. We are so spoilt rotten that we expect the impossible of the authorities whose function it is, to keep all our vehicles rolling along.

Its a point worth considering: even the most law-abiding citizens find it difficult to keep to the urban speed limit. Modern cars beg to hit 70kmph before reaching fourth and this makes the adage Dont fool yourself, speed kills, one that many drivers are pleased to disdain.

Back to basics

Speed for circumstanceif all the possible circumstances that could confront South African drivers are considered, bad road conditions should head the list. Do we have good cause for complaint? Indubitably, I believe! There is little doubt that, from municipalities to highway management consultancies, our roads are not checked, maintained or upgraded as well as they should be.

I believe it to be a management issue insufficient teams are detailed to perform checks regularly. Unless road workers alert road management to dubious conditions they have left behind, no follow up will occur. Extreme road damage is mostly a seasonal occurrence and can be anticipated. Seasonal workers can be employed to cope with it.

Heres a simple equation to get you going: no road maintenance = no sustainability = no benefits.

About the Author:

Moira Haarhoff

Initially completed a graphic design diploma and worked for 25 years in:

Print media e.g. Natal Mercury, Fair Lady and RP stable (Art Director of Darling magazine and of Style magazine).

Advertising e.g. Grey, Phillips, Bunton, Mundel & Blake, BBDO Health & Medical, Freedman & Rossi. Also freelanced for all major Johannesburg advertising

Design studios e.g. Grey Action. Also freelanced for Paton Tupper, Bates Direct, FCB Direct.

PR, promotions and experiential marketing Acuity Group.

After completing a bookkeeping and accountancy diploma, I worked for CIA International in the field of credit information, in sales, service and marketing. Strategy, planning, co-ordination and communication for the initial Arrive Alive campaign at the Department of Transport, in Pretoria, from 1997-2000. I opened my own business in 2002 and became an associate of the IIB in January 2006, as a business consultant to SMEs:

• marketing and communications
• writing commissioned articles
• editing and proof reading
• market research and social-science research and

Wall Street to Main Street: News, Views and Commentary: June 19, 2006

Its Monday June 19, 2006, and its the first day of the trading week and it should be an interesting one. Verizon (NYSE: VZ) has taken the bull by the horns as they struck a multiyear deal with PBS TV Stations to carry a wide array of PBS programming on the new Verizon TV Business. The lines are getting thinner and the war between phone companies and cable operators will begin to heat up this summer.

On the heels of that, the new FCC rules that would loosen the noose on major phone companies have been upheld by the U.S. Appeals court. Basically the large phone companies will not have to provide access to their networks in the residential arena. So smaller phone companies that are trying to grab market share from companies like AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon will have a tough time of it as the major carriers own the infrastructure that allows for service to a majority of the residential areas through out the country.

Political Front

In the Saddam Hussein trial prosecutors are pushing for the death penalty for Saddam Hussein and three of his former aides for crimes against humanity following a 1982 crackdown on Shi'ites in which hundreds were killed and tortured. So Hussein will rant and rave until the gavel comes down and his fate is sealed.

North Korea plans on testing a missile launch that, fully fueled, could reach as far as Alaska. So both the United States and Japan have warned North Korea against the launch. North Korea is taking advantage of the worlds attention that is diverted to Iraq and Iran to run this test. So this is a developing story.

Here in New York, city lawmakers are coming down hard on the Department of Homeland Security's decision to cut anti-terror funding. This comes on the heels of a report that came out over the weekend that showed that al-Qaida had a plan to attack the NYC subway system in 2003.

Tid Bits

To combat the mighty Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERICY) Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and Siemens (NYSE:SI) have both agreed to a joint venture that will merge their mobile network operations, creating a $20 billion entity. Now the new venture will be called Nokia Siemens Networks and is still subject to regulatory approval, but if this should go through two things will certainly happen, one is that Ericsson will be given a run for their money and two , close to 10,000 jobs will be eliminated. That is the casualty of this mobile network war. It is a smart move for both companies, as the mobile arena is getting tighter. So expect for these stocks to trade higher on this news.

After months of Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) creating historic lows in its trading history. UBS sees value in the company. The upgraded the stock from a Neutral to a Buy and gave the stock a target price of $23 and that is up from $21.Now the question is will the Institutional money begin to flow back into Intel or will the UBS upgrade just entice individual investors to jump on board. The stock closed at $18.30 on Friday.

Now lets take a look at the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) front, last week Bill Gates stated that he will be stepping down from the Day to Day duties of Microsoft. Now this is definitely getting mixed reactions as he was the visionary behind the company and at one point in time gave a helping hand to Apple Computer (NASDAQ: AAPL) when the company was down on its luck. But times do change, Microsoft, once being a vibrant young company that dared to be different, topping the one time juggernaut IBM (NYSE: IBM) seem to have gotten too big to have that burning desire and vision. With Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) looking to grab software market share from Mr. Softie by giving people what they want but for free seems to be just another nail being driven into the coffin of Microsoft. Now dont count them out just yet, Mr. Softie is coming out with guns blazing against Apples iPod success by launching its own MP3 player. Some think that its late in the game but technology is constantly changing so they still may have a shot, but 10 years or so ago would Mr. Softie have waited so long to be at the forefront of an evolution?, all that we can do at this point is wait and see what the reaction will be to the new product line, the shift in management and whether the software giant will consider splitting the company at some point down the road.

Movers and Shakers

Some major movers in yesterdays trading session included Focus Media Holdings (NASDAQ: FMCN) , we mentioned Focus Media when it hit a ceiling of $68 three times in a row and sent out an alert that it could pull back into the $51 range, which it did. We also alerted our readers that once it found a bottom that their next trip up to $68 would be fierce and create a base in that level. The stock traded up $6.28 on Friday to close at $60.78, the momentum has been building up in the company and you should see it try to reach that ceiling this week. We also mentioned that their United States based mirror image is a small little known company by the name of Impart Media Group (OTCBB: IMMGE), for those that have taken steps in researching and getting involved in the company should listen in on their analyst/investor conference call that is set up for this Thursday. Take a look at their latest press release for call-in details.

Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD) made nice movement on Friday, trading up $4.69 to close at $44.31. The company announced about a week ago that they have upped their stake in a ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Alaska offshore project called Cosmopolitan Unit, from 10% to 50%. So the stock moved up along with several other Natural Gas companies but investors had time this weekend to ponder many things that happened in the previous week and Pioneer Natural may be one of them.

Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) made moves on the upside on Friday after reports surfaced that the New York based Polo was on the road to striking a deal with JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) in the form of an exclusive partnership. This would give a big boost to Polo and definitely add to JC Penneys bottom line. Polo closed up $2.30 to close at $57.00 on Friday.

Other stocks that made nice moves on Thursday include Martek Biosciences (NASDAQ: MATK) which traded up $2.77 to close at $29.48, Cigna (NYSE: CI) traded up $2.25 to close at $93.45, Winnebago Industries (NYSE: WGO) traded up $2.21 to close at $30.64, Rockwell Automation (NYSE: ROK) traded up $1.71 to close at $67.39 and New Century Financial (NYSE: NEW) traded up $1.69 to close at $47.00.

Neurocrine (NASDAQ: NBIX) traded down on heavy volume on Friday, the stock tumbled $4.19 to close at $15.18 after stating that the company may have to supply the FDA with additional safety data to get the approval from them. This could lead to big delays, as they will undoubtedly need to conduct further clinical studies to get the FDA the information that they need.

After OmniVision Tech (NASDAQ: OVTI) announced great numbers analyst had a chance to review their quartley earnings and question the quality of those earnings. Analyst at both Piper Jaffray and Needham & Co questioned that as well as the companys outlook. So this drove the stock down $3.37 to close at $23.44 on Friday, this was on over 14 million shares traded. Their average volume has been approximately 1.8 million. So once the bleeding stops OmniVision may require a second look.

Under Ten

Some stocks that made moves on the upside under ten bucks include Britesmile (NASDAQ: BSML) for some odd reason closed up 90 cents to close at $3.23 on Friday. Initially the stock gained lots of interest on the heels of a fluff bid from one of their private competitors, which Britesmile graciously turned down. So you can expect the stock to slip back a bit over the coming days after the bump up last week. But who knows perhaps the fluff bid for the company may be backed up by a solid financial group, but that may not be likely just yet.

Orthovita (NASDAQ: VITA) traded up 41 cents on Friday when word got out that the Food and Drug Administration approved its product for controlling bleeding during surgeries. Now this may also pull back a bit even though the run wasnt tremendous it did hit a new 52 week high, which could cause for a pullback.

Wet Seal (NASDAQ: WTSLA) received an upgrade by Matrix Research from a Sell to A Hold, this morning and it should be a welcome upgrade which could give boost to investor confidence in Wet Seal. So look for a tad bit of movement in this one today.

Other stocks that moved higher yesterday under ten bucks included Catalyst Semiconductor (NASDAQ: CATS) which traded up 27 cents to close at $3.89, Memry corp (AMEX: MRY) traded up 23 cents to close at $2.90, Great Basin Gold (AMEX: GBN) traded up 20 cents to close at $1.85 and Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) traded up 19 cents to close at $4.71 on Friday.

Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades

Recent Analyst upgrades include aQuantive (NASDAQ: AQNT) was upgraded to a Buy from a Neutral by Merriman, Curhan Ford & Co and to an Outperform from a Market Perform by Piper Jaffray, Martin Marietta Materials (NYSE: MLM) was upgraded to an Outperform from an In-Line by Goldman Sachs, Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) was upgraded to an Overweight from an Equal Weight by Lehman Brothers, Vulcan Marterials (NYSE: VMC) was upgraded to an Outperform from an Inline by Goldman Sachs and Monster Worldwide (NASDAQ: MNST) was upgraded to a n Overweight from an Equal-Weight by Morgan Stanley.

Recent Analyst downgrades include Petsmart (NASDAQ: PETM) was downgraded to a Neutral from an Outperform by Credit Suisse, and Michaels Stores (NYSE: MIK) was downgraded to a Peer Perform from an Outperform by Thomas Weisel Partners.

Recent analyst coverage initiations include Vishay Intertechnology (NYSE: VSH) which was initiated with a Hold rating and a $16.50 price target by Citigroup Investment Research, Novacea Inc (NASDAQ: NOVC) was initiated with an Outperform rating by Cowen 7 Co, Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) was initiated with an Outperform rating and a $30 price target by Credit Suisse, RH Donnelley (NYSE: RHD) was initiated with an Overweight rating and a $64 price target by Lehman Brothers, the stock closed at $51.55 on Friday and Allscripts Healthcare Solution (NASDAQ: MDRX) was initiated with a Neutral rating by UBS.

FURIOUS FIVE

Today we are featuring Universal Truckload Services (NASDAQ: UCAL) as our Furious Five feature on the Investors Corner. As our subscribers already know, this will be sent out separately later today to subscribers only.

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Louis Victor is the host of the syndicated radio show and financial newsletter "Wall Street to Main Street" which is featured on the NAMC Newswire Radio. He has been involved in the financial industry for over two decades, on the retail and investment banking ends. He is also well versed in the advertising and marketing industries, which has given him insight into market trends and unqiue companies that may be under the radar.

Day Trading

Day trading is an integral part of the stock market. These traders are always looking to make some quick easy money, and they buy and sell stocks and options for a quick profit, they generally hold their position for short terms, usually less than a day, hence the name Day Trading. The trader buys shares not with an investment purpose but with a quick profit in mind.

The day traders keep buying and selling throughout the day with the intention of a short term profit. The value stock keeps fluctuating second to second throughout the day and as it does, the fortunes of the traders also fluctuate. It is high risk trading and not for the faint of heart.

Many day traders operate with borrowed money, they obtain money at high interest with the hope that their profits will cover the cost of the loan. This is a risky way to try and make a living, resulting in tremendous pressure to succeed. A person operating under this type of pressure seldom makes good decisions, resulting in terrible losses. Which in turn feeds the cycle, borrow more money, higher pressure to win, poor decisions.

Day trading is neither illegal nor is it unethical. But it is risky. You need to keep certain factors in mind before deciding to try your hand at day trading. An investor must be mentally prepared to suffer huge risks and he must be financially capable of making good his losses should the need arise. The trader should only invest only what they can afford to lose. They should not take the house payment and stick it into the stock market.

It has been said, if you can't drive down the road with your car windows rolled down and hundred dollar bills flying out the window and not get upset, then you shouldn't try day trading. Keep in mind, for most traders, day trading is not about investing, it is more like gambling, and is just as addictive. No one can predict how the stock market will react on a day to day basis, so a successful day trader must know how to lock in profits and cut his losses as soon as they can. Typically, this means not carrying their position overnight in the hope that the next day will bring better prices.

Day trading is not meant for the weak hearted, because it can be extremely stressful. It can take up your entire day with monitoring the stock prices. Just don't buy into the hype about easy money, and don't blindly follow any hot tips or leads. You need to do your research before you buy.

John Marston is a self taught trader who has traded online for over 15 years from his home in California. Here is the exclusive Forex Market Trading System that John uses; you can also go to his website at http://www.Trade-The-Stockmarket.com which has a wealth of information about various trading strategies. You can also read his Blog which describes some of his personal trading strategies.

Getting Started with Options Trading

If you are just getting started with options trading, you may feel a bit overwhelmed, since there is a wealth of available options and a multitude of ways to trade these same options. However, if you are determined, you can implement options trading as a successful investment strategy. You only need to realize what your ultimate goal is and what you hope to accomplish.

Since options trading can take on multiple roles in an investment portfolio, it is imperative that you have clear aim and focus before employing this particular method of investing. For example, your goal may be to protect your investment portfolio if the market takes a turn for the worst, or perhaps you have decided that you would like more income from your stocks. Whatever your goal or strategy is, it is essential to have one.

The next step, after deciding what you hope to achieve with options trading, is to begin learning about different options trading strategies so that you can implement a strategy or combination of strategies that will prove effective for your investment goals. There are a many strategies available for trading options, but the ones you implement will depend on what you hope to achieve.

After you have done your research, you are almost ready to begin trading options. Now you will need to choose a brokerage firm. The brokerage firm you choose will depend on the level of personalized service that you will require. If you are not yet quite comfortable with investing, you will do best to choose a firm that will guide you along as you master options trading. If you are pretty comfortable with your knowledge level, then you may choose to go with a discounted firm that does not offer the same level of personalization as the more expensive firms.

Before you begin trading options, you will be required by your brokerage firm to fill out and submit an options trading agreement. This form is used by the firm to ascertain your knowledge of options trading as well as your overall investment knowledge.

Your firm will approve you for a certain level of options trading based on the information you provide on the options trading agreement form. So if you are just getting started, it is probably safe to say that you will not be approved for certain strategies at first. This is because some of the strategies associated with options trading are pretty risky for an unknowledgeable person, and the firm uses this as sort of a built in protection feature, for both the client and itself.

Trading stock options can be a rewarding experience, both mentally and financially. However, in order to gain the most from your options trading experience, you must be diligent about your research and willing to continually expand your trading knowledge.

Daniel Beatty, DVM is an option trader that specializes in trading conservative strategies. He runs an informational website and blog providing details on how to trade these strategies along with reviews of the best option courses and books. To take advantage of this great information and more make sure you check out Dr. Dan's site at http://www.conservative-options.com

Surviving The Commodity Markets, PART 1 - Trading Guidelines For Different Account Sizes

Of all the important skills in trading, survival is number one. For unless we make it through the inevitable bad times, we won't be around to capitalize on the good. I've laid out some trading account guidelines that specify the account size required to conduct various commodity futures and option trading activities. Stick within these guidelines and you will have an edge on most of the commodity trading public.

The most important factor to success in commodity futures trading is our ability to survive the bad times. The second most important factor is our ability to identify and then take low risk, high probability commodity trades. Conquer these two and you are well on our way to trading success.

Yes, taking low risk, high probability commodity trade recommendations isn't enough. It's up to you to take the next step and follow the account survival guidelines discussed here. By surviving, you will be ready and able to participate in the favorable commodity trades that eventually come along, like buses in the night.

The commodity markets always change from trending to choppy and back again. There will be tough markets. You can count on this. We need to have several methods to cope with this uncertainty. We can never be sure of each individual trades outcome, so we need to put probability on our side to prepare for a losing string of trades.

One way is to have more chips at the table than our competition. A way to simulate this is by trading small breaking our account equity into ten to twenty parts (or more) and never risking more than 7.5% maximum on any one trade or idea. Many professionals with large accounts risk even less, like well under 5% a trade.

The problem with this plan is when we are dealing with smaller accounts. When the commodity trading account is under $20,000, to comply with 5% to 7.5% risk can mean taking on very small positions. Some commodity traders tend to get restless for bigger action and start breaking the rules. For example, with a $10,000 account, we should look to risk no more than $1,000 on each trade. (10%) Even this figure is too high.

If we risk less, like, 5% ($500), then the bad times are more survivable. The thing to remember is you can do all the in and out trading you want. You can grant options, spread options, hedge, buy dips, sell rallies day trade, etc - do whatever suits you. Just keep the risk for each trade down below 10% and preferably at 5% and you increase your chances of success markedly over the reckless plunger.

Next we will talk about actual account sizes and suggested activity.

Part Two of Six Parts - Next

There is substantial risk of loss trading futures and options and may not be suitable for all types of investors. Only risk capital should be used.

Thomas Cathey - 27-year trading veteran heads the managed futures division of Thomas Capital Management, LLC. View his TimeLine Trading market predictions and get his complete, free 44+ lesson, "Thomas Commodity Trading Course". http://www.thomascapitalmanagement.com/commodity/welcome.htm

Main site: http://www.ThomasCapitalManagement.com

Economic Survival in the 21st Century - the Three Key Questions to Ask

In this special report, I want to pose a few important philosophical questions to my readers. Firstly -- our Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, addressed the effects and implications of our aging population on things such as Social Security again in a speech that he made last Friday. Readers may remember that I also briefly mentioned this issue in my June 24th commentary. I urge you to keep this worldwide phenomenon of the aging population firmly on the back of your minds. If you are like most people, then you earn you living by producing a certain thing such as a consumer good, or a service that the masses want. Lets face it how many people really struck it rich by being pure traders or investment managers? The stock market and other financial markets are definitely very important to us investors/traders but this super secular trend of the aging of the worldwide population will impact every aspect of our lives, whether it is losing our relative competitiveness on the world arena, increasing pension and healthcare costs, or even a potential fundamental change of our political system.

The second question that I want my readers to think about is the potential end to the era of cheap energy prices an era which we have basically enjoyed for the last two decades without thinking of the long-term repercussions. The United States, with less than five percent of the worlds population, currently consume approximately 25% of the worlds energy each year. Supply is maturing while demand continues to surge as exemplified by the surging in demand from China and India. In the meantime, spare energy-producing capacity and inventory levels have been at all-time lows potential for a perfect storm?

Finally, I want to ask my readers the following question: What kind of investor are you? What investing style do you adopt and what investing style are you most comfortable with? Can you be a contrarian and buy when the crowd is selling or are you merely a follower who is only comfortable if you fit in? These are straightforward questions but these are questions that you really need to ask yourselves in order to truly make money in investing over the long run. If my readers take the time out to thinking about these three questions or issues and ultimately have a firm grasp of even just one of the issues then you will be in a much better economic situation than most Americans five to ten years from now.

To begin, what are the potential implications of the aging population phenomenon? Readers my recall that in my June 24th commentary, I stated: Assuming that the current level of benefits remain into the future and assuming the level of taxes is not raised, then public benefits to retirees would dramatically increase going forward. On the extreme end, Japan and Spain will see a more than 100% increase in their outlays to retirees. Clearly, this is not sustainable. Either things such as defense or education spending will need to be cut, or the above countries will need to raise their taxes. Neither of the two scenarios is optimal. Borrowing more of their funds is not a long-term solution. Cutting funding in defense and education will comprise a countrys future, and raising taxes will place a huge social and financial burden on the population of the developed world where taxes are already at a historically high level. Think about this: If you were a bright, young, French industrialist and you were forced to pay 60% of your income as taxes to support the elderly, what would you do? Why, you would vote with your feet and relocate to another country that is more tax-friendly and business-friendly and so will other great talent that may have been a great contribution to the French economy. The governments of the developed world recognize this but there are no easy solutions.

This picture gets grimmer when one takes note of a study that was done by the Bank Credit Analyst. In that study, the BCA predicts that by the year 2050, the percentage share of the developed countries of the global population will drop from over 30% in 1950 to less than 14% -- or about equal to the population of the Islamic nations of the world. Similarly, Yemen will be more populous than Germany in 2050; while Iraq will be 30% more populous than Italy (Iraq is less than 40% the size of Italy today). Russias population is projected to continue to decrease at a rate such that the population of Iran will be even higher to that of Russias in 2050. India will be the most populous nation in the world, and Pakistan will only lag the U.S. by approximately 50 million people. If the developed countries of today do not choose to work harder or become more efficient, then they will ultimately lose their comparative advantage, as the younger population of the world is inherently more hard-working, energetic, innovative, and creative. In todays globalized world, this will be a killer for the average worker in the developed countries the more so once the language barrier is eliminated (the successful commercialization of universal language translators is projected to happen in ten to fifteen years). I am generally more optimistic, as the elimination of the language barrier will greatly enhance business opportunities and efficiencies, but a person such as the average American worker will loss his or her comparative advantage in the global workforce. The availability of a huge supply of labor should also drive down wages in the global marketplace and most probably increase the maldistribution of wealth in todays developed countries.

Like I have mentioned before, there are no easy solutions. If the average American sees an increase of 10 years in his or her life expectancy, can he or she reasonably or logically retire at the current normal retirement age of 65 (which was determined during the Roosevelt administration during the 1930s) without placing an undue burden on the system? The answer is most probably no. Applying the same working-years-to-retirement-years ratio to his or her new life expectancy, then the average American should probably work around five to six years more thus giving a revised normal retirement age of 70 or so. Moreover, all this analysis is based on the outdated population distribution in the form of a pyramid where the younger and more able workers represent a majority of the population (and where the elderly represents only a small minority of the general population). The pyramid distribution has historically facilitated government support of the elderly as the monetary and social burdens have been shouldered by a relatively large younger population. The current experience of Europe and Japan suggests a more uniform distribution in the population of those countries going forward as the birthrate in those countries are now dismally below the replacement rate of the population. The situation in the United States is not currently as drastic (given our relatively lax immigration policy) but we are heading towards the same direction. Thus to maintain the current standard of living at retirement, my guess is that the general population will not only have to work longer, but work longer hours in the present (and save more) as well.

The situation is more alarming when one considers that the combined population of China and India makes up over 1/3 of the worlds population. The number of unemployed workers in China is greater than the entire labor force of the United States. The competition for relatively unskilled jobs will continue, and it promises to accelerate going forward. The average American who does not stay ahead of the curve or does not keep pace of the trend will find his or her job being outsourced not to mention the average wage being driven down by global competition. I, for one, believe that this continuing trend of globalization will make the world a better place, as hundreds of thousands of people will finally be empowered as they climb out of absolute poverty (again, over half of the worlds population currently live on less than two dollars a day) and as the prices of consumer goods are driven down still further. The average American will probably disagree, but the trend of globalization and offshoring will not stop. The last time the United States adopted economic and military isolationism we had a Great Depression and subsequently, World War II. I sincerely do not think that this was a coincidence.

The trend of the general aging population and globalization will have a profound impact on all Americans. Ultimately, I think all Americans will benefit although it may not be clear to people who are losing their jobs today. For the initiated and nimble, you will not only survive but thrive in these interesting new times. Imagine a market for your product that is over ten times the size of the population in the United States. China and India has historically disappointed as the citizens of those countries have historically been too poor to consume much U.S. goods and services. Globalization and offshoring will change all these. A world more equalized economically will also mean a much more secure and less conflictive world.

Now, I want to address a similar concern of all Americans as the era of cheap energy (basically the cheap energy prices as experienced by Americans for the last twenty years) comes to a close. While I think oil prices will decline in the short-term (i.e. for the next few months), I am longer-term bullish on both oil and natural gas prices (I will only discuss oil in this commentary). Consider the following:

• The world supply of oil is flattening out. Readers may not know this, but the United States today still produce enough oil to satisfy approximately 40% of total domestic demand. The United States also had 22.7 billion barrels of proved oil reserves as of January 1, 2004, eleventh highest in the world. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United States produced around 7.9 million barrels per day during 2003. This is down sharply from the 10.6 million barrels averaged in 1985. The peak of domestic oil supply occurred sometime during the 1970s. Today, total domestic production is at 50-year lows and still falling.
• While Saudi Arabia (the worlds top exporter and contains 25% of the worlds reported reserves) has claimed that there are and will be no supply problems for the next few decades, they have not been transparent with their reserves data. According to Simmons & Company International, five to seven key fields in Saudi Arabia produce 90% to 95% of its total oil output all but two fields are extremely old with the last major find reported in 1968. The last publicized reserves data was in 1975 when Saudi Aramco was still managed by Exxon, Mobil, Chevron and Texaco. In that report, the worlds best experts determined that all the key fields at that time contained 108 billion barrels of oil in recoverable reserves. If this holds true, then the peak of supply in Saudi Arabia will come soon. Moreover, if the report is correct, then there is really no plan B (unlike during the 1970s when the center of power shifted from the Texas Railroad Commission to OPEC due to the peaking of supply in the United States) crude oil prices will soar.
• The last frontier for the production of oil (namely the North Sea, Siberia, and Alaska) is now aging. Most companies are now struggling in order to even maintain their current production levels.
• World oil demand continues to grow. Oil demand in the early 1990s stayed relatively flat (at around 66 to 68 million barrels per day) but over the next ten years to today, world oil demand increased 14 million barrels per day. Today, total world oil demand is greater than 82 million barrels per day. The energy experts who in the early 1990s predicted a flattening of oil demand growth and who wrote off demand growth in developing countries were dead wrong.
• No new refineries have been built in the United States for the past two decades, even as refineries have been closing every year during that same time period. Refining capacity from 1981 to the mid 1990s also dropped drastically (this author estimates a drop of approximately 6 million barrels per day in refining capacity during that time period). Since 1994, however, an expansion in refining capacity at existing refineries has contributed to an increase in refining capacity from 15.0 million barrels per day to 16.7 million barrels per day (as of today). Despite this expansion, however, domestic refining capacity is still stretched to the limit, as utilization at U.S. refineries is now averaging nearly 90% -- leaving no cushion room if something unforeseen happens.

There are currently three factors at work which should contribute to a continued increase in the world oil price the maturing of supply, growing demand, and the lack of a cushion in refining capacity and low inventories. The culprit has usually been labeled as China, but it is interesting to note that the United States has had virtually no domestic energy policy (in terms of conservation and encouraging the development of alternative fuels) for the last twenty-something years. China demand, however, has soared over the last few years. It is now the second biggest oil consumer, having just surpassed Japan for the title. Demand for oil in China has more than doubled over the last 10 years (to todays 6 million barrels per day), and this amazing increase is projected to continue, especially given the fact that oil demand in China is still a lowly 2 barrels per person per year (compared to 25 barrels per person here in the United States). Furthermore, it is interesting to note that the number of cars in China only totaled 700,000 as late as 1993 and 1.8 million as late as 2001. Today, the number of cars in China totaled more than 7 million and this number could potentially have been much higher if not for the Chinese government intervention in limiting the number of cars that could be sold and driven each year. Now the most scary part: Current oil demand in India is only 0.7 barrels per person per year given this fact, oil demand in India could potentially explode over the next decade barring a huge worldwide economic recession or depression.

I believe my readers should be made aware of the current energy supply/demand situation. Given the above, what is the best course of action for the average American? How about the best course of action if you were the head of a motor company like GM or an airline pilot employed by a legacy airline like Delta? How about the best course of action for a mutual fund manager or a commodity fund manager? Since there are no easy solutions, there should be no easy answers either. In the short-run (three to five years), Americans will have to pay up if we want to drive gas-guzzling SUVs, and legacy airlines like Delta will have to continue to cut costs by probably further slashing labor costs as their first priority. A further improvement in extraction technology should help, but the serious development of alternative fuels will have to start now. I also believe that the next serious decline will be induced by a combination of an oil shock and a rise in interest rates. Readers may recall the relative strength chart that I developed in my August 15th commentary showing the AMEX Oil Index vs. the S&P 500 and the huge potential inverse heads and shoulders pattern in that chart. For now, the relative strength line should bounce around the neckline (the line drawn on that chart) possibly even for a few years but once the relative strength line convincingly breaks above the neckline, crude oil prices could rise to $80 or even $100 a barrel. I sure hope that my readers would not be taken by surprise if gas prices at the pump soars to $4.00 a gallon five to six years from now.

Finally, I want to pose to my readers the following question: Have you taken the time out to learn more about your psychological makeup and how it has affected your investment or trading decisions? What type of person are you when it comes to the market? Are you a so-called buy-and-holder, a swing trader, or a day trader? An independent thinker, a contrarian, a momentum investor or merely a follower? I am asking you these questions because of my following considerations:

• This author believes that we are currently in a secular bear market in domestic common stocks. While I believe that this current rally still have more room to go, I believe that a cyclical bear market will emerge in due time this upcoming cyclical bear market may even take us back or below the lows that we hit during October 2002. If this is true, then a buy-and-hold portfolio would definitely not work unless you were in natural resources or precious metals mining stocks.
• When this cyclical bull market tops out, all your friends, relatives, and the popular media will be telling you to buy more or to hold your common stocks. The bears and all bearish thoughts will be ostracized and frowned upon. This has happened in every bull market in everything in all human history. If you are in cash now, would you be able to remain in cash when the top finally comes or will you be unable to resist and buy in because you are afraid of the train leaving the station without you, so to speak?
• Most people are inherently not good day traders or even swing traders. To be good in even the latter, you need a huge amount of dedication and discipline.

Investing or trading has always been dominated by emotions and always will be. My thinking in starting www.marketthoughts.com has always been that that if I can get my readers to buy in now, it will be a much easier decision for them to sell and hold cash once the DJIA reaches 11,000 or 12,000 or so as opposed to being in cash and staying out for the rest of this secular bear market. 99% of Americans are just not disciplined or dedicated enough to stay in cash during a secular bear market not to mention staying in cash during the entirety of a secular bear market and buying and holding common stocks during the entirety of a subsequent secular bull market. The average human psyche is just not capable of doing this. Because of this, I sincerely believe that success in the stock market (for most people) during the next five to ten years would involve catching the swings at the right or near-right times. For readers who just cannot resist, I am also going to continue to recommend some common stocks at opportune times, but in no way should my readers take my recommendations as gospel and in no way should my readers put all their eggs in one basket. If you are a person who can stay in cash for the next ten years and wait until the Dow Industrials has a P/E below 10 and a dividend yield of over 5%, then more power to you you are either already rich who have no need to make money in the market anyway or you are a very disciplined and independent-thinking person. Most Americans just cannot do that but I am here to help.

Henry To, CFA, is co-founder and partner of the economic advisory firm, MarketThoughts LLC, an advisor to the hedge fund Independence Partners, LP. Marketthoughts.com is a service provided by MarkertThoughts LLC, and provides a twice-a-week commentary designed to educate subscribers about the stock market and the economy beyond the headlines. This commentary usually involves focusing on the fundamentals and technicals of the current stock market, but may also include individual sector and stock analyses - as well as more general investing topics such as the Dow Theory, investing psychology, and financial history.

Trend Trading or Counter Trend Trading - Which is Best?

When I first starting designing and testing trading systems, back in the early days of personal computers and trading software, I immediately gravitated toward counter trend trading. I would put up a stochastic, before I even knew what it was measuring, and my eye went right to all the divergences. A divergence is a basic counter trend pattern, where the price makes a new high, for example, and the indicator makes a corresponding lower high, thus forming a divergence with the price. The idea is that the new price high was not confirmed by momentum, which in this case was losing strength. When this pattern is seen, it is thought the market might have put in a high for the move, and it might turn around and go in the other direction.

I liked the idea of picking tops and bottoms. I was getting really good at it, at least on paper. I thought I had found the Holy Grail of trading. It all looked so easy. Almost every new high or new low on the chart was accompanied by a very clear divergence pattern. These patterns just jumped off the charts, screaming at me. I thought I had found the key to my trading plan, and it was going to be to be able to pick the point of a trend change. In other words, I was going to become an expert at picking tops and bottoms.

Then I started trying to trade all these easy patterns with real money. For some reason, whenever I would take a trade on one of these patterns the market didn't know it was supposed to reverse. It would just keep going in the direction it had been going. I would get several divergences and the results would be the same. That is, of course, until I got so burned out trying to catch the reversal and I would give up. Then, like magic, the perfect divergence pattern would appear, but I would not be in the trade.

I would caution anyone who thinks that they can pick the spot, with any accuracy, of a top or bottom in the market. I know many gurus and market timers claim to be able to do it. It can be quite gratifying to pick the top of a market, especially when all the media and analyst are on one side of the market, and you go the other direction and win. It gives you a very brief sense of superiority. You could see something that nobody else could, and you made a profit with this knowledge. However, after engaging in this activity for any length of time, one should review the account statements to really see if this has been a profitable way to trade.

It is remarkable how the eye can pick out major highs and lows on a chart, and to see many reasons why the top or bottom was so obvious. Maybe there was a classic three drives to a high pattern, or a head and shoulders pattern, along with diverging momentum or volume. It makes picking tops and bottoms look so easy. But if you analyze the chart more carefully, youll probably find two or three times as many set-ups that fail. The mind somehow glosses over the failed set-ups and goes right to the successful patterns.

After many frustrating attempts unsuccessfully using the stochastic indicator, I decided to study with the person who developed the indicator. I flew to Chicago to study with George Lane. Here was the guy who developed the indicator that almost everyone at that time was using to spot divergence patterns, and he talked me out of trading divergences, except in rare case. He only used the stochastic as a confirmation if many other conditions of trend change were present. I still like that indicator, but I use it in an entirely different way now. The time spent studying with him probably saved me years of frustration and a lot of money avoiding losses.

When thinking about trend change there are some things to keep in mind. First, trends tend to persist; often longer than you think is logical. When trends are up they often climb that wall of worry. Worry that the market will collapse without warning and take away your profit. Worry that the fundamentals don't justify the prices being traded. Logic might dictate taking profits, but there is worry of leaving money on the table. Uptrends tend to end more leisurely, at least in the stock market. For the public, it is easier to decide to enter a market or take profits in the calm of rising prices, where only greed is the factor. In down markets, traders often panic, and margin calls with fears of losing your home are often a motivator that results in more urgency. Therefore, bottoms can form quickly and sharply. Futures markets seem to be a bit more even regarding uptrends and downtrends, due to the nature of the mix of traders involved. A sideways trending market, or a market with a perceived lack of trend, will often lull traders into complacency, and with attention elsewhere, breakouts into a trend can be missed.

To summarize, I find the best strategy is to find the main, confirmed trend, whatever indicator or method used to determine that trend. Then trade only in the direction of that confirmed trend. Trading pullbacks, such as flag patterns, will usually offer the safest entry points. Trends have smaller cycles within the larger cycle. There are usually pullbacks within the longer term trend. One can still trade turning points of these smaller cycles, as long as they are in the direction of the longer-term trend. I will accept kicking myself for the few times I see major tops or bottoms that I will most certainly miss. This is a small price to pay for missing many losing trades resulting from trying to buck the trend. There are always trends somewhere, and in some timeframe. Going against the trend is like jumping into a river flowing rapidly in one direction, and trying to swim in the opposite direction. It is difficult and exhausting to do. It's much easier to float down the river in the direction that the current wants to go. The ego is more gratified in going the opposite way. The ego is also one of the most difficult aspects of trading to overcome.

Doug Tucker has a blog with daily commentary on stock indexes, precious metals, and other markets. There are many articles on technical analysis and indicator design and interpretation. To visit go to: http://tuckerreport.com/

Internet Marketing Basics: What Worked Years Ago Still Works Today!

Internet marketing can seem mystifying not only for beginners, but for moderately skilled internet marketers. With all the courses, forums, blogs, reports, seminars and teleconferences available to help people learn how to get traffic to their sites, it is one of the most overwhelmingly dense subjects on the internet.

Unfortunately, and this is perfectly true, most of the advice or "expert" tips are outdated or completely false. Since anyone can publish on the internet, you have a mixed bag of good information followed with much more bad information.

The mysticism of internet marketing is created largely by this glut of some good and mostly bad information. It makes the whole topic SEEM like rocket science when, in fact, much of what was true about internet marketing years ago is true today.

Most people think that since search engine marketing changes every five minutes, that ALL internet marketing tactics must have changed as much in the same amount of time. Not true.

The basics, like trading links, article syndication, testimonials, forum signatures, joint ventures, affiliate programs - most work as well today as they did years ago. That is, if you know how to value the work above for what it will truly do for your website traffic.

Funny thing is, no one places much value on the above tactics anymore because there is always some "new" tactic around the corner that claims the death of everything that came before it. And most people blindly follow that advice as if it were true.

Most of the time, this is to the detriment of their internet marketing efforts. The basics are what work all the time and what have always worked on the internet.

You can always experiment with new things, as long as you have not forgotten to do the basics. The basics proven to drive traffic, page rank, link popularity, and branding to your business.

Conservative, relevant reciprocal linking
Article syndication
Participation in your field and among your market (forums)
Blogging
Offline advertising
Non-reciprocal linking tactics
Press releases
...and many other proven methods.

Everything else is just a big experiment until proven to work over time. "Over time" being the operative words. Lots of flash in the pan crack pot schemes work for awhile. But most never stand the test of time.

Links from a widely syndicated article will never fade away, yet I see people chasing down fly-by-night linking pyramid schemes as if they truly believe something like that is a smart thing to base their internet business on!

Tens of thousands have walked away from their dreams, gone back to their depressing, predictable, slave-labor jobs never knowing how close they were to actually succeeding.

Good people have left this business proclaiming it an utter lie that any average person can make it with an internet business and an internet marketing plan.

I guess there is truth in that statement. Average people do in fact quit this business before they ever get started because average people fall for tricks and schemes that above average people avoid on their way to success.

If you have read this far, you are probably in the above average category. Why? Because average people would have take one look at the list of things I mentioned that are the bread and butter of internet marketing and saw nothing but hard work. And they'd be right!

Above average people don't shy away from work though. I don't know a single soul (and my rolodex has some of the biggest names in internet marketing in it) who got where they are today without a lot of hard work.

You can succeed in internet marketing if you are not afraid to work, and not constantly tempted by those who say you can succeed without it!

Focus on the basics of internet marketing and stay with them as you try new strategies. We all experiment. But successful internet marketers never leave their bread and butter tactics behind unless they cease to be effective.

Copyright 2005 Jack Humphrey

To learn bread and butter internet marketing tactics along with cutting-edge new internet marketing tactics, check out Jack Humphrey's all new Power Linking 2005. http://www.power-linking-profits.com

Top Ten Investment Mistakes

1. Lacking an investment plan a/k/a/ Don't take a trip without packing the map. A pre-planned asset allocation generates positive results and eliminates emotional panic selling.

2. Buying cheap stocks a/k/a Road crews erect "Dead End" signs for a reason. Most stocks with low share prices also arrive at the bottom for a reason. There must be institutional interest to influence price, and many won't even glance at stocks below $8 or $10.

3. Purchasing story stocks a/k/a A good fable lulls a child to sleep. Don't get taken by compelling story stocks. The plots include a cure for cancer, a big oil strike or a revolutionary invention. Such promising stories rarely prove true. If the story materializes, the company will still be a buy.

4. Selling your winners a/k/a You gotta know when to hold em. Don't sell your winners. These companies combine outstanding management, product and cash flow, creating steady growth for years. Holding these companies for the long run will compensate for other investing mistakes. In fact, one or two big winners can create real wealth.

5. Holding onto a peaked stock a/k/a Trees don't reach to the heavens, and companies don't continue growth beyond reason. Top companies peak for reasons such as attrition of top management or competition. Systematic pruning will help you avoid a rotting, unhealthy investment.

6. Under diversification a/k/a Ideas are good, but a mind full of them is better. Resist the urge to rely on a few stocks that you know. Lack of portfolio diversification leads to erratic and volatile returns, and owning several companies in the same industry also isn't diversification. The best investment results happen by investing in leading companies across various industries.

7. Over diversification a/k/a A portfolio stretched like an old T-shirt won't help an investor benefit from their insight. You don't create diversification by spreading yourself too thin. Although a mind full of ideas is good, ideas acted upon on a whim waste good thoughts.

8. Over trading a/k/a Replanting a garden every week won't produce high-quality tomatoes. Don't follow market noise and bounce from sector to sector or theme to theme. This prevents investors from enjoying the rewards of a long-term winner. Give stocks enough time to mature and compound.

9. Too much margin a/k/a Living on borrowed time brings a rush of excitement, but its a quick trip when time expires. Don't underestimate the damage margin can create. The relatively low cost and ease of obtaining leverage takes investors down a dangerous path. When a portfolio on margin declines rapidly, it can catch even experienced investors off guard.

10. Too many options a/k/a In life theres always options, (but timing makes the difference). When you buy options, you must be right and use impeccable timing. Options allow an investor to use leverage and control more shares but there are relatively high spreads involved in trading them. Many times investors lose money on their transaction even after they followed correct assumptions.

Mr. Kimmel is a private money manager and the author of Magnet Investing, build a portfolio and pick winning stocks using your home computer. His methodology was the subject of a Forbes Magazine article (June, 2004).

Barbara Kimmel is an award winning publisher and publicist at Next Decade, Inc. (http://www.nextdecade.com).

Wall Street to Main Street: News, Views and Commentary: December 13, 2005

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is without a doubt the 800 pound gorilla in the business world, from computer software to video games, they have dominated. For the past few years they pretty much sat on the sidelines in the Internet industry, not really making that their main focus, but all of that has changed.

The company is very much so focused on search engine technology and paid advertising, they have begun to go head to head with Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) on that level. They are now looking to rain on Yahoos(NASDAQ: YHOO) and eBays (NASDQ: EBAY) parade as they enter the Internet phone business. Being strategic, Microsoft has aligned themselves with MCI who soon will be under the umbrella of Verizon (NYSE:VZ).

So now that Microsoft has become a real player in the Internet game things should not only heat up but become more advanced. Google is still a great situation to be in and we are not diverting from that, 2006 should be a great year for the company as they add more services for their visitors, more options for their advertising clients and increase their reach.

Microsoft is becoming intriguing, they have their hands in all the right things. From expanding abroad to going after the Internet giants with new services and a potential deal with Time Warners (NYSE: TWX) America Online. So the growth for Microsoft has not hit a plateau, this looks to be a rebirth of sorts, look for 2006 to be very interesting in the Internet Industry.

I know that we touch on Seamless Wi-Fi (OTCBB: SLWF) in yesterdays segment but since we are on the subject of the Internet, we need to make mention of how this company fits into the overall picture.

Microsoft is not making their intentions a secret, they know where the money is. Its in search engine advertising, the more they enhance the services that they provide to their members and visitors the more visitors that will receive. More visitors equals higher advertising revenue and this goes for Yahoo and Google as well. Now as they do the 100 yard dash down the information super highway they are making Internet technology advance rapidly. Now why are we mentioning something that is a no brainer, well as they advance this technology it will make more businesses mobile. It has already begun to open the doors to global business, which means more people will be using the Internet to conduct business both in and out of the office. They are starting to move from cables to wireless, and that means these companies will need to provide a secure way for their employees to access both the Internet and their Intranet network.

Seamless has the technology that allows a business to be in a totally secure wireless environment, a person can walk around with their laptop from office to office without the worry of that information being hijacked. The price at this point does not reflect what the company has as of yet, they have not received the media attention because they have kept a relatively low profile. So we will continue to follow this stock as companies like Microsoft, Yahoo and Google make the advances in the Internet industry that will draw more interest to Wireless Internet/Intranet security.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) is just having a bad time, from downgrades to rumors of the company going bankrupt. All that needs to be said at this point is that GMs CEO Rick Wagoner needs to focus on the shareholders and not the board nor himself. The company needs someone involved that has a history of success in the automotive industry, Kerkorian offered that and as of now it has not happened. According to reports Wagoner has the board behind him but what does that do for the shareholders? , if they get thrown into bankruptcy it will be damaging to shareholder equity. So until GM puts someone in play that can turn the company around they will continue to spiral out of control. The street is brutal, as we have said time and time again, so they should expect to get kicked when they are down.

Yesterday, NAMC Newswire correspondent Peter Farrell reported that the biggest takeover in the Natural Gas industry could happen and it looks like it is. ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is lined up to acquire natural gas producer Burlington Resources Inc. (NYSE: BR) for a price tag of over $35 billion. This will make it the biggest deal in the Natural Gas industry since Chevron (NYSE: CVX) acquired Texaco.

Now, just today, Jonathan Jacoby of Banc of America downgraded Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) from a Neutral to a Sell while raising their price target for XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR). Jacoby is off target and I think that he is not looking at the big picture. Both companies have not even tap their potential, the satellite radio industry is just beginning to develop, similar to the internet industry when it was evolving and continues to evolve. The difference is that right now there are only two players in the game and one has locked up the automobile market while the other has the retail market wide open. Even though the arrival of Howard Stern is much anticipated, I really doubt that he is the end all of Sirius. He does add value but Mel Karmazin is a smart businessman and he is not solely banking on the success of Sirius on Stern. So we are ignoring Jacobys downgrade and do agree with his target on XM Satellite. As we stated 2006 will be the catapult year for the company. Keep it on your stock watch.

Information contained herein is the opinion of Louis Victor and is intended to be used strictly for informational purposes. You should be aware that Mr. Victor attempts to assure himself of the accuracy of the information contained in the analyses he publishes. None of the information contained in this opinion constitutes a recommendation by Mr. Victor, New Age Media Concepts nor the NAMC Newswire that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy mentioned on the program. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion Louis Victors past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Neither Mr. Victor, New Age Media Concepts nor the NAMC Newswire guarantees any specific outcome or profit, and you should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or Investments Opinion posted here. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The strategy or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value and you may get back less than you invested. Before acting on any information contained here, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment advisor. Louis Victor, New Age Media Concepts nor the NAMC Newswire are not licensed brokers, broker dealers, market makers, investment advisors, analyst or underwriters

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Louis Victor NAMC Newswire 888-463-9237

Buying a Bank Certificate of Deposit - The Advantages and Disadvantages of Certificate of Deposits

In the World of Finance, A CD does not mean a compact disc; it stands for a certificate of deposit. Thus, if you manage to buy a CD through savings and loans or through banks that is worth a certain amount of money, then the bank will be paying you in return a specific interest rate for a certain time. Consequently, if you buy a thirty-month CD, you may get a 3%, which is equivalent to $5000. Although a bank might not issue CDs for less than $1000, this is not the case all the time. Usually there are no requirements for issuing CDs.

You are free to choose when to get your interest, whether annually, quarterly or monthly, or even with the maturity of the CD. Just take care that whatever your interest is, it will never be added to your original amount of the CD. This stands in open contrast to a normal savings account. Nevertheless, you can choose to be paid by check or to have your earned interest deposited in a new account.

It is preferable not to redeem your CD before the maturity date agreed upon. If you cash earlier than agreed upon, you might lose 3 to 6 months of interest payments; such a penalty is known as the penalty for early withdrawal.

One of the advantages of CDs is their being insured by the government (usually the FDIC program) and this is because they are certificates issued by banks. In other words, buying CDs is a risk-free investment.

Another advantage is the freedom to buy and sell your CDs just like any bond or stock, for example, through a brokerage house. By selling your CD this way, you will avoid the penalty payment.

You should also put into your consideration that CDs usually come with a minimum, mostly $5000 and they must have round numbers (multiples of 1000).

Discover the secrets to the best certificate of deposit rate when you visit http://www.tradingsphere.com - the premiere online trading portal on stock market trading tips and resouces

Forex Trading - Forex - Foreign Currency Trading and Exchange with Confidence

Forex Trading System with a few hundred dollars allows you to make incredible returns and spend less than 8 hours per month in the market! One 8 hour day at your current job versus forex trading for 8 hours spread over one month and you could be on your way to a new life, financially speaking. What would you do with more money than you could ever make now at your present job?

Forex trading allows you to consistently predict which direction the market is heading on days when financial news is announced. Learn how banks and financial institutions always know and always profit from the currency market. Most individual traders play a dangerous guessing game often on the wrong side of making a profit!

The Institutional Forex System is designed to make money no matter what direction price moves. This is as close to a guarantee as you can get in the financial markets and it completely eliminates the greed and human emotion of trading. This is how large corporations, banks and financial institutions trade the forex.

Forex Trading with the right tools can show you that only 3 days a month, an individual currency trader can expect a 10 to 30 percent profit margin, every single month. Can you think of anywhere else on the planet, where you can expect and receive that type of profit regardless of how much or how little you invest? Institutional Forex is not found anywhere for free, so don't go do a research or review check on it. This is not guess work or high sales pitch stuff, this is the tools that thousands of successful currency traders use to always come out ahead. How many banks do you know that lose money?

With Forex Trading you have the ability to trade 24/7, the market is always open. We're talking about a market of global scale and business activity that never ceases. It's the Las Vegas on a world scale. The players are always ready to trade and make money, if you have what it takes and the right tools to assure yourself of the profits institutional forex provides. You will not find a more exciting and faster moving market than the FOREX market. The Forex market has become the world's largest financial market with over 1.5 trillion USD traded daily. Forex is part of the bank-to-bank currency market known as the 24 hour Interbank Market.

Until recently the forex trading was limited to those who could afford to place large amounts of money down, like the world banks, and trade currencies on the world market. Now it's available to the little guy to get the same returns on their money as well. Don't think for a minute that you can't improve your net worth with your smaller investment capabilities, you can.

Learn more about forex trading systems:

Jim is an online writer that has a level of follower readers eager to see what is current and profitable to their individual stakes in online and offline business ventures. Today he is discussing forex trading, a highly profitable market for those in the know.

http://justaskchip.com/forex-foreign-currency-trading-exchange.htm

Psychic? Use Your Most Important Life and Business Skill

Intuition is an inner knowing. The word intuition is derived from the Latin intueri which means to see within. Intuition is natural - everyone is born with it. It is a spiritual gift - that sometimes still, small voice of love and wisdom that guides YOU in the direction of your highest good. Intuition is your sixth sense and your most important one - It transcends your other senses and includes information from all of your senses, all you have ever learned, plus wisdom and guidance from sources you are not even be aware of.

Intuition is also an experience that almost always has a physical component to it. Sometimes intuition comes as a hunch, or a gut feeling about something. I get what I call "niggles," little niggles that are ever so gently pulling me toward something. Niggles tend to keep coming back for awhile, while a hunch may be of the moment. Other experiences may be a tickle in your throat or some sensation in your body - an inner knowing is felt. You might also notice your energy increasing or decreasing, feel as if you are opening up or shutting down. All of these experiences are telling you something, offering wisdom and guidance in some direction.

And intuition is a skill. It is a skill in that it gets stronger the more you use it. Using intuition means listening to it and following its guidance. This next statement is important: Intuition is not supposed to be reasonable. So it's really best to simply go with it, take some action on it without trying to figure it out. If the purpose is not immediately apparent, it will be. Developing a strong partnership between your intuition and your thinking mind will enrich your life and work beyond any current measure. When someone asked Einstein the secret to his success he said, "It is the result of intuition, an inner knowing."

USING INTUITION IN YOUR BUSINESS

Intuition is a highly evolved business skill that can greatly assist your success. Intuition is most powerful when you first notice it - that is most often the time to take action. Fast Company Magazine has called "acting on intuition" the number one trend that will change the way we work and live.

Making decisions is one key area in which entrepreneurs can benefit from intuition. Highly successful CEOs regularly use intuition when making major decisions. Entrepreneurs and business professionals are faced with making decisions every day, often without having all the facts. Intuition accesses an infinite supply of information and wisdom. Following the guidance and wisdom of your intuition can shift you from indecisiveness, uncertainty, or worry to confidence in making decisions that will enhance the quality of your services and products, your ease of operating and your profits.

Another key area where intuition can be effectively used is in connection with prospective clients. Most of you, in retrospect, can probably identify intuitive experiences when first meeting potential clients. You've probably had at least one experience of knowing right away that a prospective client was not right but took them on anyway. Or maybe you've unconsciously followed your intuition with such prospects by not returning their phone calls or following up leads. It takes courage to turn away clients, especially when you are in a building phase of your business. It also takes trust. Both courage and trusting your intuition will serve you, your business and the other person.

FITNESS AND RELATIONSHIP TRAINING FOR INTUITION

Intuition is an innate gift. However, if it doesn't feel natural to you just yet, take some time to get to know your intuition. There are a few simple ways you can create an intimate relationship with it. You'll think of more as you go along.

1.Relax - intuition happens. Relaxation creates an ideal condition for intuition.

2.Meditate - a meditative state is a very receptive state.

3.Ask for intuitive messages at highly receptive times such as a) before going to sleep, b) before meditation and c) before journaling.

4.Spend time in nature - nature flourishes from the guidance of its own inner wisdom and primes you to tap into your own.

5.Use your imagination consciously - it has been said to be the playground for intuition.

6.Pause for regular intuitive check-ins with yourself.

7.Develop an intimate relationship with your body - intuition most always has a physical component.

8.Keep an intuition journal - keep track of your hunches, nudges and intuitive awareness; also keep track of which ones you acted on and which ones you didn't and notice the results.

FORMULA FOR INTUITIVE SUCCESS

Decide! Expect! Trust! Act!

Make a decision to be intuitive - it's simply choosing to use a powerful gift that you already have! Expect intuition! When you expect intuition, you can relax and let it happen, and it will. Trust your intuition, even if you don't initially understand it. The more you trust your intuition, and that it is always in your best interest, the more it will come around. Act! Acting on your intuition is evidence of your trust. It's your part of the relationship. Over time, it becomes second nature. And you will come to see the benefits of following the guidance and wisdom of your intuition.

Your intuition is a delicious gift, a spiritual muscle, a skill, and it is the most natural thing in the world. Using your intuition as a way of life and as a way of business will transform both into rich and thriving experiences. When we rely on the guidance and wisdom of our intuition, life takes on an effortless quality, and we find ourselves in harmony with others and the circumstances and events in our lives - we are in the flow of life!

Reggie Odom LICSW, CPCC, PCC, founder of Inspired Works, is known as the Passion and Authenticity Coach. She is a lecturer at the Simmons College School of Social Work and faculty member of the National Institute of Whole Health. Reggie is considered a master teacher and unforgettable speaker. She inspires and empowers professionals and solopreneurs to create a passionate, authentic life and business! She can be contacted at (617)524-6153, reggie@reggieodom.com, or you can visit her web site at http://www.reggieodom.com

Forex Trading - The Untold Secrets Of Forex Trading

Forex trading is a system developed to allow people to trade currencies in the various markets. For example if you bet $100 on the Yen to go up and it does, you make money. It has become incredibly popular over the last few years not because of its tranquility but because of its volatile nature. Seems sort of strange, but there is a good reason for it.

A volatile market can only mean one thing a series of large spikes both up and down. This means the gains are much higher than in any other form of online trading and it's not strange to see traders making up to 100 times the amount they initially invested.

The forex trading market unlike options and stocks is greatly affected by a number of variables, one of them being the news. During news time when an issue arises, a stir is created in the market. This is a time when some of the largest spikes may occur and a great percentage of people make both huge profits and huge losses.

Sticking To A Strategy

Some of the most successful online traders would agree with this technique finding a strategy and sticking to it. There is nothing magical about forex trading, the prices go up and the prices go down. Whether or not you make money, completely depends on the predictions you make.

There is no room for gut instinct in forex trading. Emotions tend to get in the way of your desired outcome and is one of the biggest reasons why 90% of traders fail within the first 12 months. There are of course many scientific ways of helping to improve your odds when trading in forex.

The Simple Moving Average

One of these strategies is to use a simple-moving average. This is where we extract a set of averages from previous existing spikes. Once you have determined this average you can then make an assumption that whenever the price crosses this average in the future, it's a surefire signal to buy. There are of course programs out there that can do this for you as it can be a fairly time-consuming job.

Some Tips For Beginners

Before you even think about forex trading, spend at least a week reading from people who know what they are doing. Then once that week is over, go back and analyze the information you just read to determine whether or not it was dependable. Then go and read for another week!

If there is anything to say to a beginner to the forex market or any other form of trading, it's this - don't trust anyone but yourself! Sure ask for advice, but make sure the final decision on your trade investments is solely yours. Measure up the investment to also determine whether or not you can afford to lose what you are about to place in and don't ever go overboard!

Your goal if you don't have one, should be to find a strategy that works and stick too it. Don't go changing strategies just because you got a hot tip from some guy who fluked a trade and made a mint. Find a good strategy that works well and stick to it.

The Fox And The Hedgehog

We can say people are categorized as being one of two things - they are either a fox, or a hedgehog. A fox is a person that knows a little about a lot of things and therefore tends to jump from one strategy to another. In other words, they are very cunning and use a great deal of strategies to try and get the hedgehog. The hedgehog knows a lot about ONE thing. It knows that whatever the fox tries, all it has to do is crawl up into a ball and when the fox pounces, he gets a mouthful of spikes, and so the hedgehog survives.

Don't be a fox, be a hedgehog. Become an expert of one strategy in forex trading and I promise you will reap the rewards.

If you want to learn more about forex trading or anything else about the forex market then Forex-Trading-Platform.org is the place to go for all the best FREE information!

The Truth - Computerized Commodity Trading Systems, Part 4 - Include The Basic Human Fears!

To get a computerized system edge, you need to figure out the basic human trading weaknesses and include them in your software. Anyone can buy a trading system these days, but it will have little value unless it is unique and different from the crowd. Here's some easy-to-understand ideas I use that add in the human fears!

To develop a catastrophic exit plan, we need to look back over the history of trading for the e-mini futures contract market. A computer can easily do this. Figure out after the initial sell-off, over the last X period of time, what price swing has the futures very rarely reached? Is this ten points, fifteen points or what? You need to come up with a super panic number that will get touched maybe once every three months or so for day trading.

So whats this equate to in dollars? If you are trading small e-mini futures lots like you should be, it will be equivalent to a good day or twos day-trading profits. This is a small price to pay to enable you to survive many trades that start out real bad but end up to near break-even. The key here is that you need to be positioned in the market at a manageable risk for as long as possible. If fact, if you could be in the market ALL the time with probability on your side and tiny risk if wrong, that would be the ultimate.

In contrast, what happens when we get stopped out right away? We give up the opportunity to be positioned for the move. How many times have we said, If I only had my original position, or, I got stopped out at the exact low again! If we can train ourselves to be more humble and accept that we do NOT know where the exact bottom will be and that its OK to be wrong for a while, we will evolve to the next level.

Let the e-mini futures market be what it really is a roller coaster that keeps moving up and down. You want to keep buying this coaster on the dips and selling it on the peaks as it flows. Yes, try to stay with the main trend, but dont worry about your current profit and loss until the computer says to get out on the next favorable rally whether profitable or not.

Getting stopped out too early in panics will eventually eat up your commodity trading account, or make you a break-even trader at best. By scaling in and scaling out you will be doing the opposite of the crowd. When the crowd is getting stopped out you will be excited to see another opportunity to average for a better price. But always execute your uncle point after one or two averages and no rebound occurs.

You want to make the odds work for you by letting more bad market time work for you, while your competition only takes advantage of the more rare good times. Like any risky technique, averaging down must be used sparingly. Ideally, if you are an intuitive fuzzy logic e-mini futures trader rather than a rigid system player, you can make a choice to average more aggressively when high probability set ups appear. Profitable trading IS an art.

Remember that there are special times when the e-mini futures market can go one way for days at a time. If you are witnessing a huge move like this, give the market some time to play its energy out before standing in its way. Or simply stay with your one-way trending model on this big days.

After a couple of days these one-way markets end and the e-mini market gets back to its normal choppy self. These one-way moves can do a lot of damage if you fight them. Probability will allow the market to clean out every method known to man, given enough time. Scaling in and being humble also applies to your general trading methods. Know when to lay off for a while when your models stop working and then later start up - slowly.

Small improvements every day make huge differences at year end. Work hard to find new and unique ways to make your trading even better!

Good Trading!

There is substantial risk of loss trading futures and options and may not be suitable for all types of investors. Only risk capital should be used.

Thomas Cathey - 27-year trading veteran heads the managed futures division of Thomas Capital Management, LLC. View his TimeLine Trading market predictions and get his complete 44+ lesson, "Thomas Commodity Trading Course" - they're all free. http://www.thomascapitalmanagement.com/commodity/welcome.htm Main site: http://www.ThomasCapitalManagement.com