Economic Survival in the 21st Century - the Three Key Questions to Ask

In this special report, I want to pose a few important philosophical questions to my readers. Firstly -- our Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, addressed the effects and implications of our aging population on things such as Social Security again in a speech that he made last Friday. Readers may remember that I also briefly mentioned this issue in my June 24th commentary. I urge you to keep this worldwide phenomenon of the aging population firmly on the back of your minds. If you are like most people, then you earn you living by producing a certain thing such as a consumer good, or a service that the masses want. Lets face it how many people really struck it rich by being pure traders or investment managers? The stock market and other financial markets are definitely very important to us investors/traders but this super secular trend of the aging of the worldwide population will impact every aspect of our lives, whether it is losing our relative competitiveness on the world arena, increasing pension and healthcare costs, or even a potential fundamental change of our political system.

The second question that I want my readers to think about is the potential end to the era of cheap energy prices an era which we have basically enjoyed for the last two decades without thinking of the long-term repercussions. The United States, with less than five percent of the worlds population, currently consume approximately 25% of the worlds energy each year. Supply is maturing while demand continues to surge as exemplified by the surging in demand from China and India. In the meantime, spare energy-producing capacity and inventory levels have been at all-time lows potential for a perfect storm?

Finally, I want to ask my readers the following question: What kind of investor are you? What investing style do you adopt and what investing style are you most comfortable with? Can you be a contrarian and buy when the crowd is selling or are you merely a follower who is only comfortable if you fit in? These are straightforward questions but these are questions that you really need to ask yourselves in order to truly make money in investing over the long run. If my readers take the time out to thinking about these three questions or issues and ultimately have a firm grasp of even just one of the issues then you will be in a much better economic situation than most Americans five to ten years from now.

To begin, what are the potential implications of the aging population phenomenon? Readers my recall that in my June 24th commentary, I stated: Assuming that the current level of benefits remain into the future and assuming the level of taxes is not raised, then public benefits to retirees would dramatically increase going forward. On the extreme end, Japan and Spain will see a more than 100% increase in their outlays to retirees. Clearly, this is not sustainable. Either things such as defense or education spending will need to be cut, or the above countries will need to raise their taxes. Neither of the two scenarios is optimal. Borrowing more of their funds is not a long-term solution. Cutting funding in defense and education will comprise a countrys future, and raising taxes will place a huge social and financial burden on the population of the developed world where taxes are already at a historically high level. Think about this: If you were a bright, young, French industrialist and you were forced to pay 60% of your income as taxes to support the elderly, what would you do? Why, you would vote with your feet and relocate to another country that is more tax-friendly and business-friendly and so will other great talent that may have been a great contribution to the French economy. The governments of the developed world recognize this but there are no easy solutions.

This picture gets grimmer when one takes note of a study that was done by the Bank Credit Analyst. In that study, the BCA predicts that by the year 2050, the percentage share of the developed countries of the global population will drop from over 30% in 1950 to less than 14% -- or about equal to the population of the Islamic nations of the world. Similarly, Yemen will be more populous than Germany in 2050; while Iraq will be 30% more populous than Italy (Iraq is less than 40% the size of Italy today). Russias population is projected to continue to decrease at a rate such that the population of Iran will be even higher to that of Russias in 2050. India will be the most populous nation in the world, and Pakistan will only lag the U.S. by approximately 50 million people. If the developed countries of today do not choose to work harder or become more efficient, then they will ultimately lose their comparative advantage, as the younger population of the world is inherently more hard-working, energetic, innovative, and creative. In todays globalized world, this will be a killer for the average worker in the developed countries the more so once the language barrier is eliminated (the successful commercialization of universal language translators is projected to happen in ten to fifteen years). I am generally more optimistic, as the elimination of the language barrier will greatly enhance business opportunities and efficiencies, but a person such as the average American worker will loss his or her comparative advantage in the global workforce. The availability of a huge supply of labor should also drive down wages in the global marketplace and most probably increase the maldistribution of wealth in todays developed countries.

Like I have mentioned before, there are no easy solutions. If the average American sees an increase of 10 years in his or her life expectancy, can he or she reasonably or logically retire at the current normal retirement age of 65 (which was determined during the Roosevelt administration during the 1930s) without placing an undue burden on the system? The answer is most probably no. Applying the same working-years-to-retirement-years ratio to his or her new life expectancy, then the average American should probably work around five to six years more thus giving a revised normal retirement age of 70 or so. Moreover, all this analysis is based on the outdated population distribution in the form of a pyramid where the younger and more able workers represent a majority of the population (and where the elderly represents only a small minority of the general population). The pyramid distribution has historically facilitated government support of the elderly as the monetary and social burdens have been shouldered by a relatively large younger population. The current experience of Europe and Japan suggests a more uniform distribution in the population of those countries going forward as the birthrate in those countries are now dismally below the replacement rate of the population. The situation in the United States is not currently as drastic (given our relatively lax immigration policy) but we are heading towards the same direction. Thus to maintain the current standard of living at retirement, my guess is that the general population will not only have to work longer, but work longer hours in the present (and save more) as well.

The situation is more alarming when one considers that the combined population of China and India makes up over 1/3 of the worlds population. The number of unemployed workers in China is greater than the entire labor force of the United States. The competition for relatively unskilled jobs will continue, and it promises to accelerate going forward. The average American who does not stay ahead of the curve or does not keep pace of the trend will find his or her job being outsourced not to mention the average wage being driven down by global competition. I, for one, believe that this continuing trend of globalization will make the world a better place, as hundreds of thousands of people will finally be empowered as they climb out of absolute poverty (again, over half of the worlds population currently live on less than two dollars a day) and as the prices of consumer goods are driven down still further. The average American will probably disagree, but the trend of globalization and offshoring will not stop. The last time the United States adopted economic and military isolationism we had a Great Depression and subsequently, World War II. I sincerely do not think that this was a coincidence.

The trend of the general aging population and globalization will have a profound impact on all Americans. Ultimately, I think all Americans will benefit although it may not be clear to people who are losing their jobs today. For the initiated and nimble, you will not only survive but thrive in these interesting new times. Imagine a market for your product that is over ten times the size of the population in the United States. China and India has historically disappointed as the citizens of those countries have historically been too poor to consume much U.S. goods and services. Globalization and offshoring will change all these. A world more equalized economically will also mean a much more secure and less conflictive world.

Now, I want to address a similar concern of all Americans as the era of cheap energy (basically the cheap energy prices as experienced by Americans for the last twenty years) comes to a close. While I think oil prices will decline in the short-term (i.e. for the next few months), I am longer-term bullish on both oil and natural gas prices (I will only discuss oil in this commentary). Consider the following:

• The world supply of oil is flattening out. Readers may not know this, but the United States today still produce enough oil to satisfy approximately 40% of total domestic demand. The United States also had 22.7 billion barrels of proved oil reserves as of January 1, 2004, eleventh highest in the world. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United States produced around 7.9 million barrels per day during 2003. This is down sharply from the 10.6 million barrels averaged in 1985. The peak of domestic oil supply occurred sometime during the 1970s. Today, total domestic production is at 50-year lows and still falling.
• While Saudi Arabia (the worlds top exporter and contains 25% of the worlds reported reserves) has claimed that there are and will be no supply problems for the next few decades, they have not been transparent with their reserves data. According to Simmons & Company International, five to seven key fields in Saudi Arabia produce 90% to 95% of its total oil output all but two fields are extremely old with the last major find reported in 1968. The last publicized reserves data was in 1975 when Saudi Aramco was still managed by Exxon, Mobil, Chevron and Texaco. In that report, the worlds best experts determined that all the key fields at that time contained 108 billion barrels of oil in recoverable reserves. If this holds true, then the peak of supply in Saudi Arabia will come soon. Moreover, if the report is correct, then there is really no plan B (unlike during the 1970s when the center of power shifted from the Texas Railroad Commission to OPEC due to the peaking of supply in the United States) crude oil prices will soar.
• The last frontier for the production of oil (namely the North Sea, Siberia, and Alaska) is now aging. Most companies are now struggling in order to even maintain their current production levels.
• World oil demand continues to grow. Oil demand in the early 1990s stayed relatively flat (at around 66 to 68 million barrels per day) but over the next ten years to today, world oil demand increased 14 million barrels per day. Today, total world oil demand is greater than 82 million barrels per day. The energy experts who in the early 1990s predicted a flattening of oil demand growth and who wrote off demand growth in developing countries were dead wrong.
• No new refineries have been built in the United States for the past two decades, even as refineries have been closing every year during that same time period. Refining capacity from 1981 to the mid 1990s also dropped drastically (this author estimates a drop of approximately 6 million barrels per day in refining capacity during that time period). Since 1994, however, an expansion in refining capacity at existing refineries has contributed to an increase in refining capacity from 15.0 million barrels per day to 16.7 million barrels per day (as of today). Despite this expansion, however, domestic refining capacity is still stretched to the limit, as utilization at U.S. refineries is now averaging nearly 90% -- leaving no cushion room if something unforeseen happens.

There are currently three factors at work which should contribute to a continued increase in the world oil price the maturing of supply, growing demand, and the lack of a cushion in refining capacity and low inventories. The culprit has usually been labeled as China, but it is interesting to note that the United States has had virtually no domestic energy policy (in terms of conservation and encouraging the development of alternative fuels) for the last twenty-something years. China demand, however, has soared over the last few years. It is now the second biggest oil consumer, having just surpassed Japan for the title. Demand for oil in China has more than doubled over the last 10 years (to todays 6 million barrels per day), and this amazing increase is projected to continue, especially given the fact that oil demand in China is still a lowly 2 barrels per person per year (compared to 25 barrels per person here in the United States). Furthermore, it is interesting to note that the number of cars in China only totaled 700,000 as late as 1993 and 1.8 million as late as 2001. Today, the number of cars in China totaled more than 7 million and this number could potentially have been much higher if not for the Chinese government intervention in limiting the number of cars that could be sold and driven each year. Now the most scary part: Current oil demand in India is only 0.7 barrels per person per year given this fact, oil demand in India could potentially explode over the next decade barring a huge worldwide economic recession or depression.

I believe my readers should be made aware of the current energy supply/demand situation. Given the above, what is the best course of action for the average American? How about the best course of action if you were the head of a motor company like GM or an airline pilot employed by a legacy airline like Delta? How about the best course of action for a mutual fund manager or a commodity fund manager? Since there are no easy solutions, there should be no easy answers either. In the short-run (three to five years), Americans will have to pay up if we want to drive gas-guzzling SUVs, and legacy airlines like Delta will have to continue to cut costs by probably further slashing labor costs as their first priority. A further improvement in extraction technology should help, but the serious development of alternative fuels will have to start now. I also believe that the next serious decline will be induced by a combination of an oil shock and a rise in interest rates. Readers may recall the relative strength chart that I developed in my August 15th commentary showing the AMEX Oil Index vs. the S&P 500 and the huge potential inverse heads and shoulders pattern in that chart. For now, the relative strength line should bounce around the neckline (the line drawn on that chart) possibly even for a few years but once the relative strength line convincingly breaks above the neckline, crude oil prices could rise to $80 or even $100 a barrel. I sure hope that my readers would not be taken by surprise if gas prices at the pump soars to $4.00 a gallon five to six years from now.

Finally, I want to pose to my readers the following question: Have you taken the time out to learn more about your psychological makeup and how it has affected your investment or trading decisions? What type of person are you when it comes to the market? Are you a so-called buy-and-holder, a swing trader, or a day trader? An independent thinker, a contrarian, a momentum investor or merely a follower? I am asking you these questions because of my following considerations:

• This author believes that we are currently in a secular bear market in domestic common stocks. While I believe that this current rally still have more room to go, I believe that a cyclical bear market will emerge in due time this upcoming cyclical bear market may even take us back or below the lows that we hit during October 2002. If this is true, then a buy-and-hold portfolio would definitely not work unless you were in natural resources or precious metals mining stocks.
• When this cyclical bull market tops out, all your friends, relatives, and the popular media will be telling you to buy more or to hold your common stocks. The bears and all bearish thoughts will be ostracized and frowned upon. This has happened in every bull market in everything in all human history. If you are in cash now, would you be able to remain in cash when the top finally comes or will you be unable to resist and buy in because you are afraid of the train leaving the station without you, so to speak?
• Most people are inherently not good day traders or even swing traders. To be good in even the latter, you need a huge amount of dedication and discipline.

Investing or trading has always been dominated by emotions and always will be. My thinking in starting www.marketthoughts.com has always been that that if I can get my readers to buy in now, it will be a much easier decision for them to sell and hold cash once the DJIA reaches 11,000 or 12,000 or so as opposed to being in cash and staying out for the rest of this secular bear market. 99% of Americans are just not disciplined or dedicated enough to stay in cash during a secular bear market not to mention staying in cash during the entirety of a secular bear market and buying and holding common stocks during the entirety of a subsequent secular bull market. The average human psyche is just not capable of doing this. Because of this, I sincerely believe that success in the stock market (for most people) during the next five to ten years would involve catching the swings at the right or near-right times. For readers who just cannot resist, I am also going to continue to recommend some common stocks at opportune times, but in no way should my readers take my recommendations as gospel and in no way should my readers put all their eggs in one basket. If you are a person who can stay in cash for the next ten years and wait until the Dow Industrials has a P/E below 10 and a dividend yield of over 5%, then more power to you you are either already rich who have no need to make money in the market anyway or you are a very disciplined and independent-thinking person. Most Americans just cannot do that but I am here to help.

Henry To, CFA, is co-founder and partner of the economic advisory firm, MarketThoughts LLC, an advisor to the hedge fund Independence Partners, LP. Marketthoughts.com is a service provided by MarkertThoughts LLC, and provides a twice-a-week commentary designed to educate subscribers about the stock market and the economy beyond the headlines. This commentary usually involves focusing on the fundamentals and technicals of the current stock market, but may also include individual sector and stock analyses - as well as more general investing topics such as the Dow Theory, investing psychology, and financial history.

Trend Trading or Counter Trend Trading - Which is Best?

When I first starting designing and testing trading systems, back in the early days of personal computers and trading software, I immediately gravitated toward counter trend trading. I would put up a stochastic, before I even knew what it was measuring, and my eye went right to all the divergences. A divergence is a basic counter trend pattern, where the price makes a new high, for example, and the indicator makes a corresponding lower high, thus forming a divergence with the price. The idea is that the new price high was not confirmed by momentum, which in this case was losing strength. When this pattern is seen, it is thought the market might have put in a high for the move, and it might turn around and go in the other direction.

I liked the idea of picking tops and bottoms. I was getting really good at it, at least on paper. I thought I had found the Holy Grail of trading. It all looked so easy. Almost every new high or new low on the chart was accompanied by a very clear divergence pattern. These patterns just jumped off the charts, screaming at me. I thought I had found the key to my trading plan, and it was going to be to be able to pick the point of a trend change. In other words, I was going to become an expert at picking tops and bottoms.

Then I started trying to trade all these easy patterns with real money. For some reason, whenever I would take a trade on one of these patterns the market didn't know it was supposed to reverse. It would just keep going in the direction it had been going. I would get several divergences and the results would be the same. That is, of course, until I got so burned out trying to catch the reversal and I would give up. Then, like magic, the perfect divergence pattern would appear, but I would not be in the trade.

I would caution anyone who thinks that they can pick the spot, with any accuracy, of a top or bottom in the market. I know many gurus and market timers claim to be able to do it. It can be quite gratifying to pick the top of a market, especially when all the media and analyst are on one side of the market, and you go the other direction and win. It gives you a very brief sense of superiority. You could see something that nobody else could, and you made a profit with this knowledge. However, after engaging in this activity for any length of time, one should review the account statements to really see if this has been a profitable way to trade.

It is remarkable how the eye can pick out major highs and lows on a chart, and to see many reasons why the top or bottom was so obvious. Maybe there was a classic three drives to a high pattern, or a head and shoulders pattern, along with diverging momentum or volume. It makes picking tops and bottoms look so easy. But if you analyze the chart more carefully, youll probably find two or three times as many set-ups that fail. The mind somehow glosses over the failed set-ups and goes right to the successful patterns.

After many frustrating attempts unsuccessfully using the stochastic indicator, I decided to study with the person who developed the indicator. I flew to Chicago to study with George Lane. Here was the guy who developed the indicator that almost everyone at that time was using to spot divergence patterns, and he talked me out of trading divergences, except in rare case. He only used the stochastic as a confirmation if many other conditions of trend change were present. I still like that indicator, but I use it in an entirely different way now. The time spent studying with him probably saved me years of frustration and a lot of money avoiding losses.

When thinking about trend change there are some things to keep in mind. First, trends tend to persist; often longer than you think is logical. When trends are up they often climb that wall of worry. Worry that the market will collapse without warning and take away your profit. Worry that the fundamentals don't justify the prices being traded. Logic might dictate taking profits, but there is worry of leaving money on the table. Uptrends tend to end more leisurely, at least in the stock market. For the public, it is easier to decide to enter a market or take profits in the calm of rising prices, where only greed is the factor. In down markets, traders often panic, and margin calls with fears of losing your home are often a motivator that results in more urgency. Therefore, bottoms can form quickly and sharply. Futures markets seem to be a bit more even regarding uptrends and downtrends, due to the nature of the mix of traders involved. A sideways trending market, or a market with a perceived lack of trend, will often lull traders into complacency, and with attention elsewhere, breakouts into a trend can be missed.

To summarize, I find the best strategy is to find the main, confirmed trend, whatever indicator or method used to determine that trend. Then trade only in the direction of that confirmed trend. Trading pullbacks, such as flag patterns, will usually offer the safest entry points. Trends have smaller cycles within the larger cycle. There are usually pullbacks within the longer term trend. One can still trade turning points of these smaller cycles, as long as they are in the direction of the longer-term trend. I will accept kicking myself for the few times I see major tops or bottoms that I will most certainly miss. This is a small price to pay for missing many losing trades resulting from trying to buck the trend. There are always trends somewhere, and in some timeframe. Going against the trend is like jumping into a river flowing rapidly in one direction, and trying to swim in the opposite direction. It is difficult and exhausting to do. It's much easier to float down the river in the direction that the current wants to go. The ego is more gratified in going the opposite way. The ego is also one of the most difficult aspects of trading to overcome.

Doug Tucker has a blog with daily commentary on stock indexes, precious metals, and other markets. There are many articles on technical analysis and indicator design and interpretation. To visit go to: http://tuckerreport.com/

Internet Marketing Basics: What Worked Years Ago Still Works Today!

Internet marketing can seem mystifying not only for beginners, but for moderately skilled internet marketers. With all the courses, forums, blogs, reports, seminars and teleconferences available to help people learn how to get traffic to their sites, it is one of the most overwhelmingly dense subjects on the internet.

Unfortunately, and this is perfectly true, most of the advice or "expert" tips are outdated or completely false. Since anyone can publish on the internet, you have a mixed bag of good information followed with much more bad information.

The mysticism of internet marketing is created largely by this glut of some good and mostly bad information. It makes the whole topic SEEM like rocket science when, in fact, much of what was true about internet marketing years ago is true today.

Most people think that since search engine marketing changes every five minutes, that ALL internet marketing tactics must have changed as much in the same amount of time. Not true.

The basics, like trading links, article syndication, testimonials, forum signatures, joint ventures, affiliate programs - most work as well today as they did years ago. That is, if you know how to value the work above for what it will truly do for your website traffic.

Funny thing is, no one places much value on the above tactics anymore because there is always some "new" tactic around the corner that claims the death of everything that came before it. And most people blindly follow that advice as if it were true.

Most of the time, this is to the detriment of their internet marketing efforts. The basics are what work all the time and what have always worked on the internet.

You can always experiment with new things, as long as you have not forgotten to do the basics. The basics proven to drive traffic, page rank, link popularity, and branding to your business.

Conservative, relevant reciprocal linking
Article syndication
Participation in your field and among your market (forums)
Blogging
Offline advertising
Non-reciprocal linking tactics
Press releases
...and many other proven methods.

Everything else is just a big experiment until proven to work over time. "Over time" being the operative words. Lots of flash in the pan crack pot schemes work for awhile. But most never stand the test of time.

Links from a widely syndicated article will never fade away, yet I see people chasing down fly-by-night linking pyramid schemes as if they truly believe something like that is a smart thing to base their internet business on!

Tens of thousands have walked away from their dreams, gone back to their depressing, predictable, slave-labor jobs never knowing how close they were to actually succeeding.

Good people have left this business proclaiming it an utter lie that any average person can make it with an internet business and an internet marketing plan.

I guess there is truth in that statement. Average people do in fact quit this business before they ever get started because average people fall for tricks and schemes that above average people avoid on their way to success.

If you have read this far, you are probably in the above average category. Why? Because average people would have take one look at the list of things I mentioned that are the bread and butter of internet marketing and saw nothing but hard work. And they'd be right!

Above average people don't shy away from work though. I don't know a single soul (and my rolodex has some of the biggest names in internet marketing in it) who got where they are today without a lot of hard work.

You can succeed in internet marketing if you are not afraid to work, and not constantly tempted by those who say you can succeed without it!

Focus on the basics of internet marketing and stay with them as you try new strategies. We all experiment. But successful internet marketers never leave their bread and butter tactics behind unless they cease to be effective.

Copyright 2005 Jack Humphrey

To learn bread and butter internet marketing tactics along with cutting-edge new internet marketing tactics, check out Jack Humphrey's all new Power Linking 2005. http://www.power-linking-profits.com

Top Ten Investment Mistakes

1. Lacking an investment plan a/k/a/ Don't take a trip without packing the map. A pre-planned asset allocation generates positive results and eliminates emotional panic selling.

2. Buying cheap stocks a/k/a Road crews erect "Dead End" signs for a reason. Most stocks with low share prices also arrive at the bottom for a reason. There must be institutional interest to influence price, and many won't even glance at stocks below $8 or $10.

3. Purchasing story stocks a/k/a A good fable lulls a child to sleep. Don't get taken by compelling story stocks. The plots include a cure for cancer, a big oil strike or a revolutionary invention. Such promising stories rarely prove true. If the story materializes, the company will still be a buy.

4. Selling your winners a/k/a You gotta know when to hold em. Don't sell your winners. These companies combine outstanding management, product and cash flow, creating steady growth for years. Holding these companies for the long run will compensate for other investing mistakes. In fact, one or two big winners can create real wealth.

5. Holding onto a peaked stock a/k/a Trees don't reach to the heavens, and companies don't continue growth beyond reason. Top companies peak for reasons such as attrition of top management or competition. Systematic pruning will help you avoid a rotting, unhealthy investment.

6. Under diversification a/k/a Ideas are good, but a mind full of them is better. Resist the urge to rely on a few stocks that you know. Lack of portfolio diversification leads to erratic and volatile returns, and owning several companies in the same industry also isn't diversification. The best investment results happen by investing in leading companies across various industries.

7. Over diversification a/k/a A portfolio stretched like an old T-shirt won't help an investor benefit from their insight. You don't create diversification by spreading yourself too thin. Although a mind full of ideas is good, ideas acted upon on a whim waste good thoughts.

8. Over trading a/k/a Replanting a garden every week won't produce high-quality tomatoes. Don't follow market noise and bounce from sector to sector or theme to theme. This prevents investors from enjoying the rewards of a long-term winner. Give stocks enough time to mature and compound.

9. Too much margin a/k/a Living on borrowed time brings a rush of excitement, but its a quick trip when time expires. Don't underestimate the damage margin can create. The relatively low cost and ease of obtaining leverage takes investors down a dangerous path. When a portfolio on margin declines rapidly, it can catch even experienced investors off guard.

10. Too many options a/k/a In life theres always options, (but timing makes the difference). When you buy options, you must be right and use impeccable timing. Options allow an investor to use leverage and control more shares but there are relatively high spreads involved in trading them. Many times investors lose money on their transaction even after they followed correct assumptions.

Mr. Kimmel is a private money manager and the author of Magnet Investing, build a portfolio and pick winning stocks using your home computer. His methodology was the subject of a Forbes Magazine article (June, 2004).

Barbara Kimmel is an award winning publisher and publicist at Next Decade, Inc. (http://www.nextdecade.com).

Wall Street to Main Street: News, Views and Commentary: December 13, 2005

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is without a doubt the 800 pound gorilla in the business world, from computer software to video games, they have dominated. For the past few years they pretty much sat on the sidelines in the Internet industry, not really making that their main focus, but all of that has changed.

The company is very much so focused on search engine technology and paid advertising, they have begun to go head to head with Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) on that level. They are now looking to rain on Yahoos(NASDAQ: YHOO) and eBays (NASDQ: EBAY) parade as they enter the Internet phone business. Being strategic, Microsoft has aligned themselves with MCI who soon will be under the umbrella of Verizon (NYSE:VZ).

So now that Microsoft has become a real player in the Internet game things should not only heat up but become more advanced. Google is still a great situation to be in and we are not diverting from that, 2006 should be a great year for the company as they add more services for their visitors, more options for their advertising clients and increase their reach.

Microsoft is becoming intriguing, they have their hands in all the right things. From expanding abroad to going after the Internet giants with new services and a potential deal with Time Warners (NYSE: TWX) America Online. So the growth for Microsoft has not hit a plateau, this looks to be a rebirth of sorts, look for 2006 to be very interesting in the Internet Industry.

I know that we touch on Seamless Wi-Fi (OTCBB: SLWF) in yesterdays segment but since we are on the subject of the Internet, we need to make mention of how this company fits into the overall picture.

Microsoft is not making their intentions a secret, they know where the money is. Its in search engine advertising, the more they enhance the services that they provide to their members and visitors the more visitors that will receive. More visitors equals higher advertising revenue and this goes for Yahoo and Google as well. Now as they do the 100 yard dash down the information super highway they are making Internet technology advance rapidly. Now why are we mentioning something that is a no brainer, well as they advance this technology it will make more businesses mobile. It has already begun to open the doors to global business, which means more people will be using the Internet to conduct business both in and out of the office. They are starting to move from cables to wireless, and that means these companies will need to provide a secure way for their employees to access both the Internet and their Intranet network.

Seamless has the technology that allows a business to be in a totally secure wireless environment, a person can walk around with their laptop from office to office without the worry of that information being hijacked. The price at this point does not reflect what the company has as of yet, they have not received the media attention because they have kept a relatively low profile. So we will continue to follow this stock as companies like Microsoft, Yahoo and Google make the advances in the Internet industry that will draw more interest to Wireless Internet/Intranet security.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) is just having a bad time, from downgrades to rumors of the company going bankrupt. All that needs to be said at this point is that GMs CEO Rick Wagoner needs to focus on the shareholders and not the board nor himself. The company needs someone involved that has a history of success in the automotive industry, Kerkorian offered that and as of now it has not happened. According to reports Wagoner has the board behind him but what does that do for the shareholders? , if they get thrown into bankruptcy it will be damaging to shareholder equity. So until GM puts someone in play that can turn the company around they will continue to spiral out of control. The street is brutal, as we have said time and time again, so they should expect to get kicked when they are down.

Yesterday, NAMC Newswire correspondent Peter Farrell reported that the biggest takeover in the Natural Gas industry could happen and it looks like it is. ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is lined up to acquire natural gas producer Burlington Resources Inc. (NYSE: BR) for a price tag of over $35 billion. This will make it the biggest deal in the Natural Gas industry since Chevron (NYSE: CVX) acquired Texaco.

Now, just today, Jonathan Jacoby of Banc of America downgraded Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) from a Neutral to a Sell while raising their price target for XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR). Jacoby is off target and I think that he is not looking at the big picture. Both companies have not even tap their potential, the satellite radio industry is just beginning to develop, similar to the internet industry when it was evolving and continues to evolve. The difference is that right now there are only two players in the game and one has locked up the automobile market while the other has the retail market wide open. Even though the arrival of Howard Stern is much anticipated, I really doubt that he is the end all of Sirius. He does add value but Mel Karmazin is a smart businessman and he is not solely banking on the success of Sirius on Stern. So we are ignoring Jacobys downgrade and do agree with his target on XM Satellite. As we stated 2006 will be the catapult year for the company. Keep it on your stock watch.

Information contained herein is the opinion of Louis Victor and is intended to be used strictly for informational purposes. You should be aware that Mr. Victor attempts to assure himself of the accuracy of the information contained in the analyses he publishes. None of the information contained in this opinion constitutes a recommendation by Mr. Victor, New Age Media Concepts nor the NAMC Newswire that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy mentioned on the program. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion Louis Victors past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Neither Mr. Victor, New Age Media Concepts nor the NAMC Newswire guarantees any specific outcome or profit, and you should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or Investments Opinion posted here. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The strategy or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value and you may get back less than you invested. Before acting on any information contained here, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment advisor. Louis Victor, New Age Media Concepts nor the NAMC Newswire are not licensed brokers, broker dealers, market makers, investment advisors, analyst or underwriters

To register to receive the Wall Street to Main Street Free Daily Newsletter go to our site and click on the Newsletter section. http://www.namcnewswire.com/

Louis Victor NAMC Newswire 888-463-9237

Buying a Bank Certificate of Deposit - The Advantages and Disadvantages of Certificate of Deposits

In the World of Finance, A CD does not mean a compact disc; it stands for a certificate of deposit. Thus, if you manage to buy a CD through savings and loans or through banks that is worth a certain amount of money, then the bank will be paying you in return a specific interest rate for a certain time. Consequently, if you buy a thirty-month CD, you may get a 3%, which is equivalent to $5000. Although a bank might not issue CDs for less than $1000, this is not the case all the time. Usually there are no requirements for issuing CDs.

You are free to choose when to get your interest, whether annually, quarterly or monthly, or even with the maturity of the CD. Just take care that whatever your interest is, it will never be added to your original amount of the CD. This stands in open contrast to a normal savings account. Nevertheless, you can choose to be paid by check or to have your earned interest deposited in a new account.

It is preferable not to redeem your CD before the maturity date agreed upon. If you cash earlier than agreed upon, you might lose 3 to 6 months of interest payments; such a penalty is known as the penalty for early withdrawal.

One of the advantages of CDs is their being insured by the government (usually the FDIC program) and this is because they are certificates issued by banks. In other words, buying CDs is a risk-free investment.

Another advantage is the freedom to buy and sell your CDs just like any bond or stock, for example, through a brokerage house. By selling your CD this way, you will avoid the penalty payment.

You should also put into your consideration that CDs usually come with a minimum, mostly $5000 and they must have round numbers (multiples of 1000).

Discover the secrets to the best certificate of deposit rate when you visit http://www.tradingsphere.com - the premiere online trading portal on stock market trading tips and resouces

Forex Trading - Forex - Foreign Currency Trading and Exchange with Confidence

Forex Trading System with a few hundred dollars allows you to make incredible returns and spend less than 8 hours per month in the market! One 8 hour day at your current job versus forex trading for 8 hours spread over one month and you could be on your way to a new life, financially speaking. What would you do with more money than you could ever make now at your present job?

Forex trading allows you to consistently predict which direction the market is heading on days when financial news is announced. Learn how banks and financial institutions always know and always profit from the currency market. Most individual traders play a dangerous guessing game often on the wrong side of making a profit!

The Institutional Forex System is designed to make money no matter what direction price moves. This is as close to a guarantee as you can get in the financial markets and it completely eliminates the greed and human emotion of trading. This is how large corporations, banks and financial institutions trade the forex.

Forex Trading with the right tools can show you that only 3 days a month, an individual currency trader can expect a 10 to 30 percent profit margin, every single month. Can you think of anywhere else on the planet, where you can expect and receive that type of profit regardless of how much or how little you invest? Institutional Forex is not found anywhere for free, so don't go do a research or review check on it. This is not guess work or high sales pitch stuff, this is the tools that thousands of successful currency traders use to always come out ahead. How many banks do you know that lose money?

With Forex Trading you have the ability to trade 24/7, the market is always open. We're talking about a market of global scale and business activity that never ceases. It's the Las Vegas on a world scale. The players are always ready to trade and make money, if you have what it takes and the right tools to assure yourself of the profits institutional forex provides. You will not find a more exciting and faster moving market than the FOREX market. The Forex market has become the world's largest financial market with over 1.5 trillion USD traded daily. Forex is part of the bank-to-bank currency market known as the 24 hour Interbank Market.

Until recently the forex trading was limited to those who could afford to place large amounts of money down, like the world banks, and trade currencies on the world market. Now it's available to the little guy to get the same returns on their money as well. Don't think for a minute that you can't improve your net worth with your smaller investment capabilities, you can.

Learn more about forex trading systems:

Jim is an online writer that has a level of follower readers eager to see what is current and profitable to their individual stakes in online and offline business ventures. Today he is discussing forex trading, a highly profitable market for those in the know.

http://justaskchip.com/forex-foreign-currency-trading-exchange.htm

Psychic? Use Your Most Important Life and Business Skill

Intuition is an inner knowing. The word intuition is derived from the Latin intueri which means to see within. Intuition is natural - everyone is born with it. It is a spiritual gift - that sometimes still, small voice of love and wisdom that guides YOU in the direction of your highest good. Intuition is your sixth sense and your most important one - It transcends your other senses and includes information from all of your senses, all you have ever learned, plus wisdom and guidance from sources you are not even be aware of.

Intuition is also an experience that almost always has a physical component to it. Sometimes intuition comes as a hunch, or a gut feeling about something. I get what I call "niggles," little niggles that are ever so gently pulling me toward something. Niggles tend to keep coming back for awhile, while a hunch may be of the moment. Other experiences may be a tickle in your throat or some sensation in your body - an inner knowing is felt. You might also notice your energy increasing or decreasing, feel as if you are opening up or shutting down. All of these experiences are telling you something, offering wisdom and guidance in some direction.

And intuition is a skill. It is a skill in that it gets stronger the more you use it. Using intuition means listening to it and following its guidance. This next statement is important: Intuition is not supposed to be reasonable. So it's really best to simply go with it, take some action on it without trying to figure it out. If the purpose is not immediately apparent, it will be. Developing a strong partnership between your intuition and your thinking mind will enrich your life and work beyond any current measure. When someone asked Einstein the secret to his success he said, "It is the result of intuition, an inner knowing."

USING INTUITION IN YOUR BUSINESS

Intuition is a highly evolved business skill that can greatly assist your success. Intuition is most powerful when you first notice it - that is most often the time to take action. Fast Company Magazine has called "acting on intuition" the number one trend that will change the way we work and live.

Making decisions is one key area in which entrepreneurs can benefit from intuition. Highly successful CEOs regularly use intuition when making major decisions. Entrepreneurs and business professionals are faced with making decisions every day, often without having all the facts. Intuition accesses an infinite supply of information and wisdom. Following the guidance and wisdom of your intuition can shift you from indecisiveness, uncertainty, or worry to confidence in making decisions that will enhance the quality of your services and products, your ease of operating and your profits.

Another key area where intuition can be effectively used is in connection with prospective clients. Most of you, in retrospect, can probably identify intuitive experiences when first meeting potential clients. You've probably had at least one experience of knowing right away that a prospective client was not right but took them on anyway. Or maybe you've unconsciously followed your intuition with such prospects by not returning their phone calls or following up leads. It takes courage to turn away clients, especially when you are in a building phase of your business. It also takes trust. Both courage and trusting your intuition will serve you, your business and the other person.

FITNESS AND RELATIONSHIP TRAINING FOR INTUITION

Intuition is an innate gift. However, if it doesn't feel natural to you just yet, take some time to get to know your intuition. There are a few simple ways you can create an intimate relationship with it. You'll think of more as you go along.

1.Relax - intuition happens. Relaxation creates an ideal condition for intuition.

2.Meditate - a meditative state is a very receptive state.

3.Ask for intuitive messages at highly receptive times such as a) before going to sleep, b) before meditation and c) before journaling.

4.Spend time in nature - nature flourishes from the guidance of its own inner wisdom and primes you to tap into your own.

5.Use your imagination consciously - it has been said to be the playground for intuition.

6.Pause for regular intuitive check-ins with yourself.

7.Develop an intimate relationship with your body - intuition most always has a physical component.

8.Keep an intuition journal - keep track of your hunches, nudges and intuitive awareness; also keep track of which ones you acted on and which ones you didn't and notice the results.

FORMULA FOR INTUITIVE SUCCESS

Decide! Expect! Trust! Act!

Make a decision to be intuitive - it's simply choosing to use a powerful gift that you already have! Expect intuition! When you expect intuition, you can relax and let it happen, and it will. Trust your intuition, even if you don't initially understand it. The more you trust your intuition, and that it is always in your best interest, the more it will come around. Act! Acting on your intuition is evidence of your trust. It's your part of the relationship. Over time, it becomes second nature. And you will come to see the benefits of following the guidance and wisdom of your intuition.

Your intuition is a delicious gift, a spiritual muscle, a skill, and it is the most natural thing in the world. Using your intuition as a way of life and as a way of business will transform both into rich and thriving experiences. When we rely on the guidance and wisdom of our intuition, life takes on an effortless quality, and we find ourselves in harmony with others and the circumstances and events in our lives - we are in the flow of life!

Reggie Odom LICSW, CPCC, PCC, founder of Inspired Works, is known as the Passion and Authenticity Coach. She is a lecturer at the Simmons College School of Social Work and faculty member of the National Institute of Whole Health. Reggie is considered a master teacher and unforgettable speaker. She inspires and empowers professionals and solopreneurs to create a passionate, authentic life and business! She can be contacted at (617)524-6153, reggie@reggieodom.com, or you can visit her web site at http://www.reggieodom.com

Forex Trading - The Untold Secrets Of Forex Trading

Forex trading is a system developed to allow people to trade currencies in the various markets. For example if you bet $100 on the Yen to go up and it does, you make money. It has become incredibly popular over the last few years not because of its tranquility but because of its volatile nature. Seems sort of strange, but there is a good reason for it.

A volatile market can only mean one thing a series of large spikes both up and down. This means the gains are much higher than in any other form of online trading and it's not strange to see traders making up to 100 times the amount they initially invested.

The forex trading market unlike options and stocks is greatly affected by a number of variables, one of them being the news. During news time when an issue arises, a stir is created in the market. This is a time when some of the largest spikes may occur and a great percentage of people make both huge profits and huge losses.

Sticking To A Strategy

Some of the most successful online traders would agree with this technique finding a strategy and sticking to it. There is nothing magical about forex trading, the prices go up and the prices go down. Whether or not you make money, completely depends on the predictions you make.

There is no room for gut instinct in forex trading. Emotions tend to get in the way of your desired outcome and is one of the biggest reasons why 90% of traders fail within the first 12 months. There are of course many scientific ways of helping to improve your odds when trading in forex.

The Simple Moving Average

One of these strategies is to use a simple-moving average. This is where we extract a set of averages from previous existing spikes. Once you have determined this average you can then make an assumption that whenever the price crosses this average in the future, it's a surefire signal to buy. There are of course programs out there that can do this for you as it can be a fairly time-consuming job.

Some Tips For Beginners

Before you even think about forex trading, spend at least a week reading from people who know what they are doing. Then once that week is over, go back and analyze the information you just read to determine whether or not it was dependable. Then go and read for another week!

If there is anything to say to a beginner to the forex market or any other form of trading, it's this - don't trust anyone but yourself! Sure ask for advice, but make sure the final decision on your trade investments is solely yours. Measure up the investment to also determine whether or not you can afford to lose what you are about to place in and don't ever go overboard!

Your goal if you don't have one, should be to find a strategy that works and stick too it. Don't go changing strategies just because you got a hot tip from some guy who fluked a trade and made a mint. Find a good strategy that works well and stick to it.

The Fox And The Hedgehog

We can say people are categorized as being one of two things - they are either a fox, or a hedgehog. A fox is a person that knows a little about a lot of things and therefore tends to jump from one strategy to another. In other words, they are very cunning and use a great deal of strategies to try and get the hedgehog. The hedgehog knows a lot about ONE thing. It knows that whatever the fox tries, all it has to do is crawl up into a ball and when the fox pounces, he gets a mouthful of spikes, and so the hedgehog survives.

Don't be a fox, be a hedgehog. Become an expert of one strategy in forex trading and I promise you will reap the rewards.

If you want to learn more about forex trading or anything else about the forex market then Forex-Trading-Platform.org is the place to go for all the best FREE information!

The Truth - Computerized Commodity Trading Systems, Part 4 - Include The Basic Human Fears!

To get a computerized system edge, you need to figure out the basic human trading weaknesses and include them in your software. Anyone can buy a trading system these days, but it will have little value unless it is unique and different from the crowd. Here's some easy-to-understand ideas I use that add in the human fears!

To develop a catastrophic exit plan, we need to look back over the history of trading for the e-mini futures contract market. A computer can easily do this. Figure out after the initial sell-off, over the last X period of time, what price swing has the futures very rarely reached? Is this ten points, fifteen points or what? You need to come up with a super panic number that will get touched maybe once every three months or so for day trading.

So whats this equate to in dollars? If you are trading small e-mini futures lots like you should be, it will be equivalent to a good day or twos day-trading profits. This is a small price to pay to enable you to survive many trades that start out real bad but end up to near break-even. The key here is that you need to be positioned in the market at a manageable risk for as long as possible. If fact, if you could be in the market ALL the time with probability on your side and tiny risk if wrong, that would be the ultimate.

In contrast, what happens when we get stopped out right away? We give up the opportunity to be positioned for the move. How many times have we said, If I only had my original position, or, I got stopped out at the exact low again! If we can train ourselves to be more humble and accept that we do NOT know where the exact bottom will be and that its OK to be wrong for a while, we will evolve to the next level.

Let the e-mini futures market be what it really is a roller coaster that keeps moving up and down. You want to keep buying this coaster on the dips and selling it on the peaks as it flows. Yes, try to stay with the main trend, but dont worry about your current profit and loss until the computer says to get out on the next favorable rally whether profitable or not.

Getting stopped out too early in panics will eventually eat up your commodity trading account, or make you a break-even trader at best. By scaling in and scaling out you will be doing the opposite of the crowd. When the crowd is getting stopped out you will be excited to see another opportunity to average for a better price. But always execute your uncle point after one or two averages and no rebound occurs.

You want to make the odds work for you by letting more bad market time work for you, while your competition only takes advantage of the more rare good times. Like any risky technique, averaging down must be used sparingly. Ideally, if you are an intuitive fuzzy logic e-mini futures trader rather than a rigid system player, you can make a choice to average more aggressively when high probability set ups appear. Profitable trading IS an art.

Remember that there are special times when the e-mini futures market can go one way for days at a time. If you are witnessing a huge move like this, give the market some time to play its energy out before standing in its way. Or simply stay with your one-way trending model on this big days.

After a couple of days these one-way markets end and the e-mini market gets back to its normal choppy self. These one-way moves can do a lot of damage if you fight them. Probability will allow the market to clean out every method known to man, given enough time. Scaling in and being humble also applies to your general trading methods. Know when to lay off for a while when your models stop working and then later start up - slowly.

Small improvements every day make huge differences at year end. Work hard to find new and unique ways to make your trading even better!

Good Trading!

There is substantial risk of loss trading futures and options and may not be suitable for all types of investors. Only risk capital should be used.

Thomas Cathey - 27-year trading veteran heads the managed futures division of Thomas Capital Management, LLC. View his TimeLine Trading market predictions and get his complete 44+ lesson, "Thomas Commodity Trading Course" - they're all free. http://www.thomascapitalmanagement.com/commodity/welcome.htm Main site: http://www.ThomasCapitalManagement.com

The Whole Truth About Small Caps

Talk to most traders and ask them about the OTC markets, and you'll likely get either a story about someone who made it big, or someone who lost it all. Like Las Vegas, investors can always tell you a story. The question for you is simple: is this a place to invest your hard earned money.

The answer is yes and no. The key is in recognizing the risk involved. Keep risk to a minimum by identifying which small caps have potential, and which are a trap, and you may find yourself in the staring role of one of those stories about the guy who made it big. If you fail to take heed of the warning signs, you'll find your money, hopes and dreams fade just as quickly as gamblers in Las Vegas.

The very fact that small caps trade at such low volumes increases the risks involved in investing in them. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strongly suggests traders of small caps to remember that these stocks typically trade with very low volumes on average. This makes finding buyers when you want to sell, and sellers when you want to buy more difficult. As a result, you may not get the stock at the price you want. This can result in buying too high

Despite the risks involved, small caps are often attractive investments to investors for various reasons. If you are new to investing and looking for the chance to return a high yield for a relatively low investment you are likely to come across some microcaps. Its not surprising that investors are attracted to small caps. A move of a few hundreds of a penny can mean big returns for you. For a $0.10 stock to move up 20% requires a move of only $0.02. If the stock moves to $0.20, you have doubled your money. If the stock starts to move, you can double or triple your money within days. You won't find that kind of return on the major stock exchanges.

On the other hand

There is also a strong potential for fraud with some buyers artificially 'enhancing' or driving the costs by buying large amounts of shares and raising the perceived value of essentially worthless stocks. Most investors who fall for this lose many when it comes time to sell.

Most financial advisors will suggest not investing more than 10% of your portfolio on microcaps

It is important to remember that not all of these companies are frauds and many of them have a great deal of potential. Some are new businesses that are working hard towards their goal of earning a spot on the larger exchanges. Do your research in order to decrease your risks of landing with a declining or dishonest company. Often, most traders are often convinced that one good investment can make them a nice tidy profit. While this is true it is better to invest in a company that is showing slow and steady growth than one you are hoping will sky rocket over night. Take the time and do your research rather than gambling with your investment.

Learn more about hot penny stock picks or how to trade at http://www.1source4stocks.com

How To Turn Disadvantages Of A Reverse Mortgage To Your Advantage

When it comes to a reverse mortgage, wise consumers weigh the advantages and disadvantages prior to signing on the dotted line.

Lets start on a positive note, you could do what most borrowers do and opt for the reverse mortgage line of credit. Just think about how you would then be able to draw on the loan whenever money is required for daily living expenses, medical bills, prescription costs, home repairs, etc. This could really enhance your retirement years including in-home care expenses in later years.

Furthermore, your new found income does not affect regular Social Security payments or Medicare benefits. And lenders cannot foreclose on the loan for the life of the borrower.

Okay, thats all well and good but how do you turn the major disadvantages of a reverse mortgage into a positive one? Its all in the perspective. For every negative there is a positive to obtaining this loan.

Its true a reverse mortgage loan may affect your eligibility for state and federal government assistance programs such as Medicaid but it also gives you an important financial cushion and does not (as mentioned above) affect your regular Social Security payments or Medicare benefits.

You also have no monthly payments to make. Granted, the amount you owe continues to grow larger over time but you also have more cash on hand to enhance the quality of your current lifestyle. Look at it this way, you will now have all the money you need (and want). After all, its your money. True, you wont have the full selling price of your home to leave your loved ones but if theyre financially sound in their own right, do they really need a substantial inheritance?

Furthermore with the new found cash, you could re-invest into other income-generating streams such as stock and option trading. But that would be another story with its own pros and cons.

It all comes down to whats important to you, what your current financial needs are and if leaving money to heirs is something you feel you need or want to do.

To take a look at the basics of a reverse mortgage tips and info, get more details from http://www.wealthmountains.com/finance/reverse-mortgage-tips-info.htm

This article is part of the resources, guides and tools dedicated to your financial successes found on Keith Choy's WealthMountains Site. Visit his site at http://www.wealthmountains.com/finance

How Forex Trading Can Change Your Life

Forex trading, or foreign exchange, is a market in which currency is changed from one type to the next in the hopes of making money off the trade. In fact, forex is the worlds largest market because of just how much money can change hands here. Who can do it? How can you get in? And, can you really make a good sized investment off of this type of trading? It almost seems to simple, doesnt it? But, the bottom line is that through forex trading, you can make a good sized fortune. Youll still need experience, education and a little luck but maybe not as much.

Who Can Play The Game?

First forex trading is anything but a game. In fact, people are making hundreds of millions of dollars off of it each and every year. There are big bucks to be made. As for who can get into it, this trading is open to virtually anyone. In the grand scheme of things, though, it is mostly played by central banks, larger banks, currency speculators, governments, international and multinational companies as well as others. Small investors and speculators often can be involved as well. Most of the time these individuals will use brokers to handle their investment strategies.

Because forex trading can actually be done by anyone, it allows for small investments. This is one of the large benefits of forex. Virtually anyone can invest and you dont need a lot of money to do it. Of course, trading with more can lead to more money as well. It can be wise though to go in on a larger trading scheme, through a broker, because these companies can pool together funds for larger, more lucrative investments. Yet, there is a fee involved in it as well.

What Makes Forex Trading Unique Though?

Why not just invest in the stock market or other investment portfolios? Why should you invest in forex over other types of trading? There are several characteristics that make forex unique and these contribute to why many individuals go through this type of investment.

• Markets are always open. Being able to trade anytime, except weekends, makes this trading market very available to anyone, in any country around the world. You can go to bed at night with nothing and wake up to a huge difference in your investment.
• The volume. The market is so large that there is quite a bit of volume available through it. This makes it very easy to get in and very easy to actually make a good deal of money as well.
• Liquid as water. There are no assets, no worries about how well the company is doing. Through forex trading, the funds that you invest are liquid. You can cash them in at virtually anytime. If you are working through an investment firm, it may be harder to liquidate them, but typically funds can be turned into cash quickly, far more so than other investment strategies.
• There are also a wide number of factors that contribute to the market trading foreign exchange rates. These are the value of the currency that you have in your hand. For example, if you would like to invest in Russian Rubbles, the demand for the Rubble is dependant on the value of that money in relation to other currencies, in relation to the economic and other factors within the county as well as speculative rates as well. What makes rates change can include a simple disbelief in the government, a national announcement of good economic times ahead and hundreds of other factors.

The value of the forex trading market is huge. In fact, it is estimated that the market has over 2 Trillion United States Dollars worth of currency changes happening each and every day the market is open. This large amount of money in the trading environment is what makes it such a lucrative and worthwhile investment for many people.

Getting Started

How can you get into this? How can you make the money that all of those other guys are? Youll find most of the help that you need offered to you on the web. There is a wide range of programs through brokers that can help you. Firms are willing to work with virtually any individual, corporation or small business that has any size monetary value to invest. Contracting with a broker for a small investor is the ideal way to go. Forex trading can be a lucrative market, if you get into it. It can then literally change your life.

For forex trading systems reviewed and rated visit http://www.forextradingsystemsreviewed.com/. You may freely reprint this article on your website or in your newsletter provided this courtesy notice, link and URL remain intact.

Finding Money for Rehabbing Property

If you are just beginning in the real estate investment business, it may be hard to find money to fund your deals. Especially in the beginning, it's going to be hard for you to establish relationships with the right people with no experience. My suggestion is to polish up on your lingo so it seems like you have a little experience. When you approach all of your favorite doctors, lawyers, real estate investors, family and friends with retirement accounts you sound like you are an expert. Go in head strong like you own the place. Trust me you'll become and expert before you know it.

People love to make money and people really love to make money doing nothing and that's what you are going to allow them to do. You take the back ache off of them. When you meet them for the first time be sure you are very professional and decide what rate of interest you are willing to pay. Usually in cases like this you can expect to pay 10-16% to borrow their money. Don't forget it is risky for them and you want the to be able to win too. Create win wins for both of you. Always keep your word with potential investors in your business. If you say you are meeting them at 2:00 pm for a meeting, be there waiting on them at 1:45. Their time is valuable. Don't hold them hostage for 9 hours. Keep your meeting short and to the point.

Do your homework. Do not go into your meeting sounding like an idiot. It is your time to shine. If you really want it, they will know it. Do not cut yourself short by consistently reassuring them. Stay confident and close. Also - do not give up if the first person you approach doesn't work the way you intended it to. Stay focused and determined to go to the next. Keep your message simple and to the point. Make it look like you have a way for them to make a lot of money without lifting a finger. Most of the time, they will jump at the opportunity if it looks good.

Remember - In the real estate business, the most successful people make quick decisions. They do not sit around and ponder ideas. They take action and go with the flow.

Mandy Sheckles is the founder and President of The Wealth Corp. Her company offers Property Rehabbing Education to students around the country. In just eight years, she went from flat broke to being a real estate millionaire.

She is the author of "Renovate Your Success" and the creator of The Rehab Manager, a web-based software application designed to streamline your rehabbing business.

http://www.thewealthcorp.com

Forex Markets & Its Trading Characteristics

There are a number of reasons why FOREX trading is such a great way of entering the capital markets. Among them we can find its easy accessibility thanks to the use of the internet, the fact that currency trading is all commission-free and also the low transaction costs involved.

There is one important characteristic about Forex that makes it what it is. This important characteristic is that there is not a single unified foreign exchange market in the world. Instead of this, due to the over-the-counter nature of currency markets, there exists a number of interconnected marketplaces, where many different currency instruments are traded. What this implies is that there is not a single dollar rate in the world, but different rates, depending on what bank or market maker you are asking a quotation to. In practice these rates are often very close as you can easily find on the web.

As a piece of general knowledge you must learn that the main forex trading centers are placed in New York, London, and Tokyo, but this doesnt mean they are the only ones; there are other banks throughout the world that also participate. For example, as the Asian trading session ends, the European trading centers open, then the US session, and then the Asian centers open again. This kind of continuos market has the advantage that traders can react to news immediately, instead of waiting for the markets to open.

There are many factors that can influence the exchange rate of a particular currency. These rate fluctuations are usually caused by changes in inflation, GDP growth, interest rates, budget and trade deficits or surpluses, and other macroeconomic conditions f the country emitting the particular currency. Also major news that are released publicly can affect the prices of currencies; so many people have access to the same news at the same time that they can shake a currency price really hard.

According to a specialized study, the most heavily traded products on the spot market are: EUR/USD - 28 %, USD/JPY - 18 %, GBP/USD - 14 % and the US currency was involved in 89% of transactions, followed by the euro (37%), the yen (20%) and sterling (17%).

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Why Investing in Commodities (Part II)

In the first part, I wrote about your responsibility as the client when investing your money in any financial market. I also mentioned that investing is the art of predicting the future, and what consideration should be taking regarding this aspect of the financial markets.

In this second part, I will refer to the Risks involved in trading, particularly in the commodity market, and how to avoid some of the most common mistakes that investors make without even knowing.

3) Understand Risk

Future contracts and options over futures are highly leverage instruments, so they are considered risky investments. However, this characteristic of the commodity market is not a reason to run away from the possibility of investing in it. Remember that leverage is a two ways sword: it can hurt you, but it also can provide you with percentage returns that you probably wont find in other markets. In order to have a better chance of being successful in this market you have to understand the risks you are taking in each and every trade. You have the right to ask your broker about the risks involved in the trade he/she is offering you. Always remember that there are different types of risks that you might be taking without knowing. For example, you can be told that you should only buy options over futures because the risk is limited to the amount of money you invested plus commissions. This is absolutely true, but do you know that a high percentage of options expire worthless? This means that if you only make this type of trading you have a big chance of end up loosing all the money on your account. Another highly risky investment is to buy deep out of the money options (this example does not apply when selling deep out of the money options). These options can cost you for example only $200 each, so you might be advised to buy 5 contracts. This buying of deep out of the money options are the type of investments where the client is trying to make a fortune in one trade. These trades almost always do not work; the only thing you achieve when making those type of trades is increasing your risk and paying a lot of commissions to your broker.

When trading futures contracts there are also many ways of increasing the risk. For example, you can decide to go short on Unleaded Gasoline the day before a hurricane hits the Gulf Coast. Maybe you are thinking or are told that the hurricane is going to change direction at the last minute according to weather reports, so the next day all the energy complex is going to collapse and you will make a fortune on your short position (again an example of an investor trying to make a killing on one trade). Another typical mistake that investors do and hence increase their risk is to send money to cover a margin call. If you have a margin call, first close the position because it means that you are in a loosing position. If after you close the position, you still owe money to your broker, then send the money; and if that trade was your broker advise and was not the first time that you had a margin call, then change broker.

As you can see in these examples, risk is always part of the commodity market as it is of all investment markets. There is nothing you can do about the risk that belongs to the market, but respected it. However, you can have a better chance of making money, if you understand the risks associated with the trades you are advised to make.

4) How Much Money to Start

In order to answer this question, first you have to decide whether you want to trade on your own or have someone giving you the trading recommendations. Commodity markets are different from the stock market; is not a good idea to trade on your own if you dont have access to real time quotes, broadband Internet and the time to be in front of your computer most of the day. Remember, because of the leverage, mistakes are very expensive in this market.

For small investors, the best thing to do is to open an account with a broker that you feel confident with and that will give you advise and manage your positions. There is all kind of minimum requirements regarding the amount of money that you need to open an account. I think that small investors that are getting started in this market should open with a minimum of $5,000 and maximum of $20,000. Less than $5,000 is not a good idea because it narrows you on your possibilities of diversifying your money in different markets and types of trade, which is another way of increasing your risk. I also dont advise clients to open with more than $20,000 because remember that when you open your account, what you are basically doing on your first trades is seeing if the broker you are starting to work with has the ability and potential to make you money. As I mentioned before, if you loose money on your first 4 or 5 trades, chances are you will keep loosing money on that account. It might be cheaper to find some other place to work with.

Conclusion

Small investors do have an opportunity to make money in the commodity market. If you want to increase your chances of being successful in this market, you also have to do your part. It is not enough just to look for a broker, sign the paper forms and send the money. As the owner of the funds, you have the responsibility of understanding where your money is being invested and what are the risks involved in every trade. Finally, remember that you are not opening an account to get rich in the very short term. You are investing in the commodity market as a way of diversifying your investment portfolio, trying to achieve a better return overall.

Jorge Malo is the President of TeoFutures, an Introducing Broker who specializes in working with investors who want to participate in the commodity market with a minimum of $5,000. TeoFutures trades Futures contracts and Options over Futures on a non-discretionary basis for our clients. Mr. Malo has more than 15 years experience in the financial markets in the US and abroad, and is a member of the National Futures Association. Please visit our Web page at http://www.teofutures.com to learn more about the commodity market and our company, and to subscribe to my Free Weekly Financial Newsletter with important market information and analysis.

Electronic Medical Billing Control with Computer Aided Coding Software

The average practice submits half of its codes wrong, while some practices rarely exceed more than one code right out of every five codes. Inexact and inconsistent coding increases the risks of undercharging, overcharging, and post-payment audit. This article outlines evolution of coding from individualistic art towards disciplined and systematic process.

It is convenient to review the role of coding in the context of the entire claim processing cycle, which consists of patient appointment scheduling, preauthorization, patient encounter note creation, charge generation, claim scrubbing, claim submission to payer, and followup, which in turn includes denial or underpayment identification, payment reconciliation, and appeal management. The importance of thorough knowledge and correct application of coding rules at the charge generation stage of claim processing cycle are well known and have been frequently discussed. Less obvious but no less important is the ability to make correct interpretations of the same rules at the claim followup stage during denial or underpayment analysis and upon receiving payment and explanation of benefits.

Coding is difficult because of a four-dimensional complexity. First, the sheer volume and intricacy of coding rules make it difficult to select the right procedure code, correct modifier, and necessary diagnosis code for the given medical note. For instance, a claim will get denied if you charged for two CPT codes but provided an ICD-9 code that shows medical necessity for one CPT code only. Next, the payer-specific modifications exacerbate the complexity of coding, creating the need to code or process differently the same procedures depending on the payer. For example, some payers require medical notes attached to some CPT codes in addition to standard ICD-9 codes. Third, the codes and regulations change over time, necessitating continuous coding education and re-education. Finally, charge generation and claim followup are disconnected in space and time and often performed by different people, adding to confusion and costs of the claim processing cycle.

Only experienced coders can handle such complexity but experience too often turns into handicap as, in the absence of a reliable self-correcting process, the coder or the followup person may repeat the same mistake over and over. Hence ad hoc coding is error-prone and expensive. Paper superbill-driven coding improves upon traditional coding because it allows fewer errors and eliminates some of the costs. Computer aided coding with integrated superbill completes the transformation of coding from individualistic art towards disciplined and systematic process and is the most reliable and least expensive solution.

Traditional Coding

Since the practice owner is ultimately responsible for coding quality, it behooves the physician to manage personally the coding process. But traditionally, in the absence of systematic practice management, the physician looked for a coding approach to avoid the burden of coding. Such an approach to coding is error-prone and expensive. According to the Healthcare Financial Management Association's "Tip Sheet: Medical Claims Denial Management," the average error rate for CPT coding is 45%-55%. Some specialties (e.g., interventional radiologists) have trouble exceeding even 18% of correct coding, according to the March 2003 issue of "Healthcare Biller: The Communication Network for America's Health Care Billers," a monthly newsletter from Aspen Publishing.

Traditional coding involves the doctor, data entry personnel, and certified coder. The doctor dictates, types, or handwrites descriptions of diagnosis and procedures, without listing actual codes. The data entry personnel enter codes based on reading doctor's descriptions, and the certified coder supervises and audits the quality of coding by the data entry personnel.

Traditional coding process is error-prone because the certified coder does not audit 100% of entered codes and because such process does not have a vehicle for context maintenance between the charge creation and claim followup stages. The errors may become especially expensive upon post payment audit of the charges by the insurance company. This process is also expensive because multiple people are involved in the coding process and because the errors, if discovered at all, will be discovered only downstream, rising the costs of error correction.

Paper Superbill-driven Coding

Pre-compiled superbill-driven coding process places the doctor in control of coding, ties together claim creation and followup stages, and avoids many shortcomings of traditional coding. Such a process delivers two-fold advantage of lower cost and improved communication. First, the doctor codes at the end of patient encounter without involving data entry personnel in the middle. Second, the paper superbill serves the role of a formal vehicle for coding information communication between charge creation and claim followup stages. Additionally, a pre-compiled superbill improves coding consistency across the doctors within the same practice.

Superbill creation process has four stages:

1.List the codes used most often first. Use CPT frequency report.
2.List the diagnosis codes
3.Leave room for ancillary services
4.Include patient's information

Along with the advantages over the traditional coding process, the paper-based superbill still has four shortcomings. First, the data must be re-entered into the system from the paper superbill, introducing potential for errors. Next, the superbill must be reviewed periodically to adjust for changes in practice operations. Worse, it is difficult to keep up with changes in coding regulations, necessary modifiers, and bundling decisions that differ across various payers. Finally, the paper superbill contributes nothing to upfront coding error identification and correction, delaying potential error identification and resolution to post-submission, or worse, post-payment phases. Obviously, the later in the process the error is identified, the more expensive is its correction.

Computer Aided Coding with Integrated Superbill

Computerization and integration overcome most of the problems of paper superbills, eliminating duplicate data entry, automating code review and adjustment for frequency, practice operations, and payer idiosyncrasies, and shifting much of the error identification and correction from post-payment stage to claim pre-submission stage.

Computer aided coding with integrated superbill offers multiple advantages:

1.Dynamic - Adjusts for changes in practice operations and payer specifics. For instance, adds automated alert to satisfy unique payer demands, such as requests for paid drug invoices in addition to injection CPT code and J code for supplies.

2.Precise - Matches codes to EMR and alerts in real time about potential coding errors, such as confusing modifiers 59, 76, 77, and 91 for repeat procedure or test, or not coding the ICD-9 code to the highest level of possible digits in spite of specific diagnostic available in EMR.

3.Defensive - Allows for real-time profiling of coding patterns to alert about potential audit flag.

4.Reliable - Facilitates end-of-day juxtaposition of visits with charges, avoiding unpaid visits.

5.Inexpensive - The doctor can use it directly, eliminating extra data entry step and associated costs.

In summary, coding is a mission-critical responsibility of practice owner. Computer aided coding with integrated superbill places the doctor in control and enables dynamic, precise, reliable, consistent, defensive, and inexpensive coding process. Superbill digitization and integration overcome the four-dimensional coding complexity, tie it to EMR, patient scheduling, and billing (i.e., to the entire spectrum of practice management functions), and require powerful Vericle-like computing platforms.

Yuval Lirov, PhD, author of "Mission Critical Systems Management" (Prentice Hall), inventor of patents in Artificial intelligence and Computer Security, and CEO of Vericle.net Billing Technologies and Services. Vericle unites hundreds of billing services across the nation. Its electronic medical billing software tracks payer performance from a single point of control and shares compliance rules globally. Yuval invites you to register to the next webinar on audit risk at BillingPrecision.com

Forex Trader- Getting Behind The Non-Farm Payroll Report

The Non-Farm Payroll report presents quite a dilemma for the new Forex trader. On the one hand it is a predictable market mover which happens on the first Friday of every month at 8:30 am Easter Standard Time.

On the other hand, it has the following major disadvantages for the Forex trader:

• The large price swings can create whip saw reaction which can easily take out stops.
• Trading at this time is very volatile and many online brokers cannot guarantee positions. Slippage is a major factor at this time so the Forex trader may not get the profits they think they should or they may get stopped out when they think they shouldn't.

Before considering how a Forex trader should approach the market at the time of this report, let's get behind the scenes and get some background information on this fundamental announcement:

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases this statistic which represents around 80% of the workers responsible for the gross domestic product of the USA. In other words, the figures released show the total number of paid employees in the USA in any sector with the exception of those in:

• general government service
• private household category
• certain non-profit organizations
• farm and agricultural sector

This comprehensive report gives details of:

• how many people are looking for employment
• how many people are in employment
• salary levels of those in employment
• number of hours worked

Why is this of interest to the Forex trader and why does this information have such an impact on the foreign exchange market?

A successful Forex trader needs to have some understanding of economic factors in order to perceive what candlestick charts are representing.

The employment data contained in the Non-Farm Payroll report is a major indication of how well the economy of the USA is doing. Additionally, the data provides a guide for investors as to where to put their money.

Another major factor is the insight the employment data gives on inflation, especially the figures relating to salaries and wage trends. Any signs that inflation may be increasing or decreasing are monitored closely by the Federal Reserve which responds accordingly.

As a result, the money markets react in a big way.

How should the Forex trader deal with the Non-Farm Payroll report?

In view of the wild price swings which are characteristic at the time of the release of this report, and as many online brokers cannot guarantee positions at this time, many professional traders choose to stay out of the market at 8:30 am EST on the first Friday of each month, and for perhaps 30 to 40 minutes after.

Additionally, price action is often very muted during the first Friday of every month as the market awaits the Non-Farm Payroll report. Modest price action may even be noted one or two days before the first Friday in some instances.

The Forex trader needs to be aware of this and recognize the market conditions leading up to this report. Price will often be in consolidation working its way up and down narrow channels. Trading opportunities still exist but of course, such price behavior will require a different set of strategies.

As for the time after the report, there can often be good trading opportunities. After waiting for the market to settle, which may take anywhere between 30 to 60 minutes after the report, it is possible to start making sense of what is happening.

By observing key support and resistance levels, candle patterns, Fibonacci levels, and other indicators, it is possible for the Forex trader to profit from the second leg of price action, after the first dramatic swing has taken place.

So to summarize:

Why does the Non-Farm Payroll report have such an impact on the Forex?

Answer: Because the employment data contained in the report can be a major indicator of how well the economy is doing and how the Federal Reserve is likely to respond to inflation indicators.

How should the Forex trader approach the time of this report?

Answer: STAY OUT! Then, once wild price action has settled some time after, calmly review the information represented on the charts, and if a good setup appears, TRADE!

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Discount Stock Brokers

Discount stock brokers are individuals offering services for a variety of trades at discounted prices. Their position permits them straight access to the share market. Discount stock brokers are ideal for those who know the trade industry well and do not need extensive information about the market. Since an investor can obtain high discounts, these brokering services are very significant.

Discount stock brokers do not provide any investment advice. They only arrange the stocks demanded at a discounted rate. The brokers take an order and do not make commission. In other words, discount stockbrokers earn money by selling massive amounts of stock. Their services also permit the shareholder to invest some savings back into the market for a return.

Technological advancement and the popularity of computers facilitate almost any business deal from home, via the Internet. Stock brokering is also pretty simple to do online. Several companies on the Internet allow users to sign up, complete the application process and start trading within a few days. The online stockbrokers are mainly discount online stockbrokers and full-service online stockbrokers.

Discount online stock brokers - licensed to trade in shares - are popular with today's online investors. They offer an execution service for a variety of trades with lower fees than the full service agencies. Before making a decision about investments, it is wise to contact several agencies requesting information on fees, because all online stock brokers are highly competitive.

Full-service online stockbrokers can provide far more stocks and products compared to discount brokers. They also help in all share related activities, such as buying shares, creating a safe investment portfolio, and investment advice. These service providers are mostly paid by commission, hence they will work harder to satisfy the investor.

An investor opting for a discount broker has to know the market industry well, since the agent does not provide advice on what or when to buy sell, or trade. The person should ideally possess knowledge in the market. A stockholder can work with multiple discount brokers at the same time.

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Forex Education - The Way of the Turtle

Many years ago, I read the story of the turtles in the book Market Wizards. I was fascinated to read how the legendary trader Richard Dennis, trained a group of novice traders in just 14 days and how these novices later became trading legends themselves.

Now we have a book written by one of the turtles themselves. The Way of the Turtle by Curtis M. Faith. This turtle and author made $30 million for Dennis - and now shares his insight of the turtle experiment and its achievements

The Bet

In 1983, Richard Dennis had a bet with his long-time friend William Eckhardt. They had a friendly dispute on whether traders were born, or could be taught to be successful. Dennis thought they could be taught, but Eckhardt thought they couldnt.

The turtle experiment took place - and Dennis won. The turtles achieved a collective compound rate of return of over 80%. This group of 23 traders had never traded before, yet were taught to trade a system in just 14 days.

Way of the Turtle reveals the reasons for their success, and covers such areas as:

. The system rules and methodology

. Why, even though they used the same method, some Turtles were more successful than the others were.

. How to expand the rules that the Turtles used - in order to find core strategies that work for any tradable market.

. How to apply the Turtle methods to your own trading strategy.

. Ways to diversify your trading risk

The Way of the Turtle is a good book - being easy, and fun to read. The book throws up one key fact that all forex traders should note in their forex education: Simple trading systems can provide a trading edge, but its psychologically difficult for most traders to follow these systems and take advantage of the edge the system can provide. This is clearly shown by the fact the Turtles results varied (despite the fact they all were taught the same methodology).

Theres also a discussion on the difficulty of executing a system that has a few big winning trades, in order to achieve an overall positive return on investment.

If you learn one key fact from the book, its that learning a successful trading system is not enough. You need the mental discipline to execute the system correctly - in order to maximize your returns.

Ive always found the experiment an inspiration, and Im sure other traders who read this book will come away thinking, they did it - so its possible!

Its possible to become a successful trader if you gain the right knowledge but you also need courage and discipline, in order to execute the knowledge correctly.

You may not be as successful as the turtles were but the book will point you in the right direction, to achieving currency-trading success. The book does this by highlighting some key areas you need to apply in your own forex trading strategy, in order to become a successful currency trader.

Way of the Turtle is well worth buying - and you should consider it to be an essential read, and part of your forex education.

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