Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Make Money Forex Trading by Utilizing Volatility

Traders in the forex market are now a savvy lot. Almost everyone in the forex market nowadays are self trained in reading charts, or a user of some form of high technology software to trade the forex market. Some have graduated from using simple technical analysis to the new fangled sophistication of neural network forecasting and artificial intelligence. But yet a great majority of these professed experts fail in their trading, losing money from their trading rather than making profits. Why is it so?

The answer lies in the devil within. The traders who win are those who are capable of executing their trading plans with discipline and precision, and more importantly, they can cope with the VOLATILITY of forex trading.

Theory is if you can identify volatile movements, even if they are small, and execute trades with these volatile movements, buying on the lows and selling them at the peaks, you stand to make big profits. However, in practice, many volatile movements are too fast and tiny to be identified in time to be traded profitably. Where larger volatile movements are identified, it is error in judgment and the speed of execution of the trades that reduce the amount of profits.

When I was conducting research into writing a report on how a trader can recoup his losses after a horrendous period of bad trading, I was pleasantly surprised by a veteran trader who told me he was a profitable trader from day one of his starting trading. This is by no means a false claim, because this flamboyant trader has always been known both for his tremendous skill in trading and for being anything but decent about his skills and his ability to make the correct calls in the market.

Being surprised, I asked him what was his profession before he became a professional trader and a trading coach. His answer added to my surprise, because he said, " I was a professional poker player and the runner up in the Australian poker championship!".

Therein lies his great success as a forex trader as well, because as a poker player and a champion player at that, he was accustomed to taking calculated risks.

The secret to trading his style was to take calculated risks in his forex trading.

For example, if you have identified a trade, and you have placed a trade, do not place your stops too near the entry price because the odds favor the stops being hit most of the time. Rather, you can assess the odds and probability of the stops being hit before you place them. Again, when a trade presents itself, and you can compute that the odds of winning is in place rather than losing, it is then that you can increase your trades.

If you desire to win big, learn to compute the odds of winning, and like the successful poker player, bet big when the odds are in your favor and stay away from a trade where the odds indicate you will lose. This is where forex traders will measure their risk-reward ratios for their favorite trade setups and can identify which trade setup will result in bigger profits and with lower risks. This is a skill that you ought to learn to become more profitable.

Like to see how a professional trader uses the power of computing risk and reward to 3 of his most powerful proven trading strategies to trade the forex? With the Forex Trading Machine course, you will learn 3 major trading setups which will let you quickly identify accurate trade setups where you can have the odds of winning heavily in your favor rather than losing. Discover how you can grab hold of this course and special bonuses from my blog at Make Money Forex Trading and get a free trading video or visit http://forex-trading.cashflowpc.biz/ for free articles and lessons on forex trading.

Starting An E-Commerce Business

The development and expansion of the Internet has made business opportunities, once only available to the wealthy, available to nearly everyone. In the past, opening a business was a huge commitment in terms of finances and risk. Traditional business owners had to quit the their current jobs, obtain bank financing, and sign leases before they even made a penny. Its easy to see why 95% of them failed within five years. Today, business opportunities are available to anyone willing to put in the time and effort to learn about the world of e-commerce. Best of all, you can start an e-commerce business with minimal funds and very little risk. This guide will take you though the steps necessary to start your own e-commerce business.

Find Your Niche

The first step to creating your own e-commerce business is to find you niche. Examine your hobbies and interests for potential business ideas. If you love soccer, consider selling soccer supplies or team uniforms online. You may also consider opening a business that is similar to your current job. For example, as a nurse you may know a lot about medical supplies and how hospitals obtain them. You could start a medical supply business. Your contacts and industry knowledge could give you an advantage over a competitor who does not know the inner-workings of hospitals the way you do.

Research The Demand

Now that you have a few business ideas, its time to research the demand for your products or services. If you plan to sell to the general public, youll want to find out how many people are looking for your products or services. As a small business owner, you will not have the marketing funds to create a demand for a product. The products you sell, must already be in demand. A great way to determine product demand is to see how many people are searching for a specific product. Overture has a wonderful keyword tool (http://inventory.overture.com/d/searchinventory/suggestion/) that displays the number of searches for specific keywords. It will give you a good idea of which products are popular and the specific keywords you should target when building your website.

Scope Out Your Soon-To-Be Competitors

Before settling on a business idea, scope out your would-be competitors. Visit their websites and compare the following:

Professional Look & Feel

Products and Services

Search Engine Ranking

Page Rank (Available on the Google Tool Bar)

Keywords

Back Links (how many sites link to them).

Youll need to know your competitors websites inside and out. Spend some time exploring each one. This will give you an idea of what youre up against. Keep in mind, that your website will need to be equally as professional or better than theirs. Dont worry if you dont think you have the technical skills necessary to create a professional website. The use of professional website templates will be explained later.

While youre researching your competitors, check to see if the products you intend to sell are sold at large department stores such as Wal-Mart, Target, and Amazon.com. It is very difficult for a small business to compete with these large companies because the profit margins are extremely low. Youll need to sell products that are in demand, but arent sold by corporate giants.

Establish A Business Entity

In order to conduct business, you need to establish a business entity. Fortunately this can be as easy as filing a Doing Business As or Fictitious Name form with your local County Clerks office to become a sole proprietor. When you arrive at the County Clerks office, they will check their records to make sure your intended business name is not already in use. If its available, you will need to complete the appropriate forms and pay your filing fee. Each state has different requirements. Check with your state for requirements on becoming a sole proprietor.

You will also need a sales tax id. You will need to charge sales taxes in the state where your business resides. Contact your county office for details about sales tax IDs and any other requirements they may have.

Open A Business Bank Account

Now that you are a legitimate business owner, its time to open a business bank account. Take your court documents to the bank and open a business checking account. Most banks offer a variety of business accounts. Choose the one the best meets your needs. Its usually best to start with their least expensive account because it could be a while before you start earning revenue. You can always upgrade in the future.

Some banks require a business owner to wait specified amount of time, usually 90 days, after the court documents are filed before opening a business bank account. These rules are in place to help prevent fraud. Check with your bank to obtain waiting period information.

Choose A Domain Name

While you wait to open a bank account, you can start building your website. First, register a domain name. Names that end in .com are best. If possible your, domain name should include one or more of your target keywords. For example, if you are creating a yoga supply business, youll want to choose a name with the word yoga, such as yogacenter.com, yoga-supply.com, or yogastuff.com.

Create Your Website

One of the keys to successful e-commerce businesses is a professional website. Your website is the first and often the only impression your visitors will have of your business. A professional website can be the difference between your visitors viewing you as a home-based business operating out of your garage and a multi-million dollar business with hundreds of employees. Fortunately, you dont need to be a web programmer to create a professional website. There are companies that sell professional website templates. You can get website templates for free, but its much better to pay for a highly professional template. To find these templates, simply search for website templates. You should expect to pay $50 $150 for a good template with multiple pages and professional images.

Most website templates can be customized with common HTML editors and a simple graphics program. Templates can be edited without having to invest a lot of time and energy into learning how to code web pages.

Youll want your website content to target specific keywords. This can be achieved by creating articles, product reviews, product comparisons and detailed description of your products. Avoid repeating the keywords so often that the text becomes difficult to read. There is a fine line between good copy text and spam text. Spam text is designed to increase your sites listing in the search engines, but often backfires when penalties are issued and your website is dropped from the listing.

Host Your Website

Now that your website has been created, its time to find a company to host your website on their servers. You should be able to find a good hosting company for around $10 per month. This fee should include technical support and email accounts with your domain name. Domain name-specific email accounts are important for a professional image.

Your website files can be uploaded with a simple FTP program. The hosting companys technical support personnel can walk you through the steps to upload your files and launch your website.

Implement A Shopping Cart

No e-commerce website is complete without a secure shopping cart. There are many shopping cart options. Many e-commerce business owners make the mistake of using Pay Pal to accept payments, which immediately tells visitors that their company is very small and not professional.

A good alternative to Pay Pal is a remotely hosted shopping cart. Remote shopping carts take the burden of maintaining security and credit card numbers off your shoulder and places the responsibility on another company. Remote shopping carts can usually be configured to look similar to your website. In fact, your customers may not realize that they have left your website to place an order. The remote shopping cart provider will give you the HTML to add to your website. When your potential customer clicks on the Buy Now button, he or she is taken to the remote shopping cart to enter the personal information and payment details.

Depending on your choice of a shopping cart, you may or may not need a merchant account to process transactions. Some shopping cart services allow you to use their merchant accounts for a slightly higher fee.

Stock Your Inventory

Now that your website has been created, its time to stock your inventory. The first step is to find the manufacturers of the products you wish to sell. You can find this information by reviewing your competitors websites. Some of them may list the manufacturer with the product name or description. Once you have the name, you can search for the manufacturer online.

Contact the manufacturer and tell them that you are interested in becoming a distributor. Ask for a wholesale price list and an application. The price list will help you determine if the profit margins are high enough to justify selling their product.

Youll want to ask the manufacturer the following questions:

What is the MSRP (Manufacturer Suggested Retail Price) for the item?

Am I required to sell the item at MSRP?

What is your minimum order quantity/amount?

Some manufacturers will not sell to e-commerce businesses that do not have a brick and mortar retail location. If this is the case, youll simply have to find a company that manufactures a similar product and is willing to sell to an e-commerce business.

Promote Your Business

Now that your website is live and youre open for business, its time to promote your website. If no one knows that it exists, you will not receive any sales. Most website visitors originate from search engines. Before search engines can list your website, they have to know that it exists. Youll need to submit your website to search engines and directories such as Yahoo!, DMOZ, Excite, and others. Search engine submission programs and services are available, but they not effective. Most good search engines require websites to be manually submitted. They enforce this by displaying an image with a series of letters or numbers that automated programs cannot read. The code embedded in the image is required to submit your website.

Search engine algorithms are extremely complex. The ranking of a website in their search results depends on a number of factors, including keywords, density, back links, page rank, and other factors. After submitting your website to the major directories and search engines, the next step is to establish back links. When search engines crawl the web and find a link to your site, they count the link as a vote for your site. The more votes you have, the higher your site will rank (assuming other criteria has also been met). You can acquire back links by sending emails to other website owners and offering to exchange links. Its very difficult for new websites to acquire back links. Most people prefer to exchange links with established websites. In a way, its a catch-22, but it can be done and the results are worth it.

Starting your own e-commerce business is a lot of work. Making it successful is even more work, but the pay-offs can be rewarding. Thanks to the explosion of the Internet age, e-commerce business opportunities are now available to anyone with a computer, a few hundred dollars for start-up costs, some spare time and the desire to create a business.

Copyright 2004 ZIP Baby. All Rights Reserved.

About The Author

Danna Henderson started ZIP Baby in order to provide parents with comprehensive potty training information as well as a large selection of potty training products. For more information about potty training, or to browse the potty training store, visit the Toilet Time Targets for Potty Training.

Education In Real Estate Investing-What You Need To Know To Start Profiting Now

So you want a good education in real estate investing? Certainly, this is one of the most lucrative investing fields you can embark in, today or ever.

The great thing about real estate is that there will always be a great demand for it. Everybody will always need a home to live in, and thats what you can provide as a investor.

Many people have a big misconception about real estate investing. You see, most people mistakenly believe that most real estate investors make their money by buying for a low price, and then turning around and selling for a higher price. This is not what most successful real estate investing gurus do.

In reality, the vast majority of the successful real estate investors will buy a house only if they can be sure of making some long term income from it. Just like stock investing, the vast majority of investors are only looking for a quick buck.

The same thing applies to real estate investing. Like stock investing, the vast majority of real estate investors dont succeed because they are too focused on making a short term gain, and not worried enough about long term income. The ultra successful investors, on the other hand, will generally only buy a stock or real estate investment property if they can be assured of making a long term income from it.

In real estate investing, this would involved renting the property to someone else, and then using that as a passive long term income stream. of course, in order to know this, you will need a good education in finances and real estate investing. This means being able to read a financial statement, and determine an investments overall profitability before investing.

Unfortunately, most investors never do this simple little step. Remember, when it comes to investing, its all about the numbers. If the numbers arent there now, they likely never will be. Therefore, get a good educating in real estate investing, an then only invest if the numbers are right.

To learn to invest money and for other investing advice, try checking out http://www.online-investing-tips.com. This is a popular investment site that gives money investment advice to help you achieve financial freedom.

Mini Accounts: A Great Way to Get Your Start in Currency Trading

Currency trading is a risky but potentially profitable means of earning more money in addition to your regular income. There are many ways of going about it, but if you are a beginner to currency trading, I strongly suggest starting with what is called a mini Forex account. You can open a mini account with a minimum investment as small as $250, and some brokers will even allow you to open an account with a $100 minimum investment. With a mini account, you will still enjoy many of the same privileges as a regular account holder.

Let's look at the difference between a mini account and a standard Forex account. In a standard account, the lot or trading contract size amounts to 10,000 units of the base currency--in the case of USD, that would amount to $10,000. A mini Forex account will handle only a percentage of a single lot, which means that mini account contract is one-tenth the size of a standard Forex account contract. The pip values in mini Forex trading are also one-tenth the normal value.

Mini account trading does involve engaging in marginal trading. That means that you are making use of leverage, or in other words, borrowing money to be able to perform a trade without having to invest the full amount required for a single lot. The investment that you pay for out of your own pocket is called a marginal lot. For a mini account, the marginal lot for every $10,000 lot is $50, which is a 200 to 1 leverage. On starting a mini account with a minimum of $250, you are trading five mini lots with your investment.

Should you be concerned that the mini account requires a high degree of leverage as compared to other forms of trading? For example, stock market day trading has a leverage ratio of 4 to 1 in a trading day, which is far lower than the leverage ratio of mini account trading is 200 to 1. But this is the standard practice in mini Forex trading and traders and brokers do not see it as over-leveraging.

When you look at what happens in mini Forex trading, you will find that the traders risk on a mini account can be compensated by the smaller amounts of potential losses in mini trading. An average loss in mini account trading is one-tenth the amount that would be lost in an equivalent trade on a standard Forex account. That makes it easier for mini Forex traders to follow a disciplined trading strategy, since a trader normally finds it simpler to let go of a small loss, whereas a greater loss may prompt an investor to hold on longer than one should to a declining currency. The high leverage in mini Forex trading also gives an investor more options and trading strategies in currency trading.

A mini Forex account is the recommended investment choice for traders who want to invest $10,000 or less in currency trading.

Learn more about getting into Forex trading. View our latest articles about the Forex market at http://www.faso06.com

Commodity Trading Blunders IV, PART 1 - My Early Days As A Novice Trader

Be wary of the man behind the curtain. He may represent the biggest company with the most powerful software, but still, you need to verify. And remember, if whatever worthwhile you are trying to accomplish was easy, everyone would be doing it and already rich. Commodity trading takes lots of practice and skill. There are no shortcuts.

I keep coming back to Max, my first broker. Let me tell you another story that taught me two lessons. About the time I made the big British Pound futures contract trade, I started to notice that my commodity account statements did not agree with what I thought the balance should be. It was off something like $3,500. I sent my paperwork showing profits and losses to Max. He said the trades seemed correct, but still, my account balance was $3500 lower than it should have been.

Max finally told me to come in and sit down with a Merrill auditor. I showed up and met a thin, balding man of about 45, with glasses and a very conservative look. I just knew he was thinking I was the typical commodity futures gambler who would be blown out in no time. He had not studied my trading records to this point.

I showed him the futures trades and he looked them over one by one. What I remember about the session is his shocked look when he realized that I was actually making money in the account! He looked at the cotton ”limit up” trade and said, “ you made $5,000 on this trade?” I tried to act like it was nothing - like it was an everyday thing and said, “yep.” I could see his eyes widen as he looked at some of the “lucky” big ones. After about 45 minutes he said he could not find an error in my paperwork and said he would credit the futures account for the full $3,500 the next day.

I learned two valuable lessons that day. The first is not to trust any commodity account statement. As good as our computerized world is today, there are still mistakes being made. It can mean having wrong trades put into your account or not receiving them at all. Errors can be more numerous when day trading since many trades come and go quickly.

The second and most important thing I learned is that most new and inexperienced commodity futures traders lose and blow out their accounts. It’s just a matter of time before the commissions, bad analysis, ego generated mistakes, order mistakes, over-trading and everything else reduces the account to nothing. I realized this when the auditor was stunned that I was actually making money with Max. Later I found this to be the case in the real world. The statistics in stock trading are no different. Futures trading is not unique in this regard.

Hey, I’m not the greatest commodity trader either. I still struggle with the trading triangle every day. But you and I don’t have to be the best trader in the world to make money - only better than most. Perfection is not required.

Most commodity futures traders are reckless with their trading. Many just guess or look for tips. They come, play for a few months, get blown out and never come back. Then a new group comes in and the cycle repeats. Only a small percentage hang around long enough to learn how to break even. Even that is a big accomplishment. Later with persistence, learning and good fortune, they pull it off by making some money each year.

It’s all about the bell curve. At one end of the curve there will be some that are gone in a few days. In the middle, the majority will make a little, break even or lose a little. Then there are the superstars at the opposite end who consistently make multi-millions each year.

Probability allows for everything. Every scenario will play out eventually. If you stay focused and are willing to drop things that do not work and keep trying new ideas, you may be able to find the right combination that fits you to a ‘T.’ That’s the whole commodity futures and options game. You need to figure out your strengths and weakness. Then match up a commodity trading program where you feel comfortable and confident enough to take consistent action.

Part Two of Four - Next!

There is substantial risk of loss trading futures and options and may not be suitable for all types of investors. Only risk capital should be used.

Thomas Cathey directs the managed futures division of Thomas Capital Management, LLC. Get FREE, the complete 44+ lesson, "Thomas Commodity Trading Course" by visiting: http://www.thomascapitalmanagement.com/commodity/welcome.htm It's brand new and fun reading... a "street-wise" trading e-course. Visit the main Thomas Capital Management trading website at: http://www.ThomasCapitalManagement.com

Understanding Financial Statements

Financial accounting's focus is on the financial reports distributed to people outside of the company. The major component of financial reporting is the financial statements: income statement, balance sheet, statement of cash flows, and the statement of stockholders' equity. The income statement indicates a company's profitability during a specified time period such as one year, three months or one month.

Under accrual accounting the income statement reports the amount of revenues earned and the expenses that were incurred to earn the revenues. Expenses also include costs that expired during the period of the income statement. If a corporation's stock is publicly traded, the income statement will also report the earnings per share of common stock. The balance sheet reports a corporation's assets, liabilities, and stockholders' equity as of a specific instant, such as midnight of December 31. Most balance sheets will group all of the current assets and all of the current liabilities. This allows readers to easily see the corporation's working capital and current ratio. The statement of cash flows organizes the explanations of the change in cash and cash equivalents into three sections: operating activities, investment activities, and financing activities. The statement of stockholders equity provides a summary of the changes occurring to stockholders' equity during the accounting period. The changes include net income, dividends declared, purchase of treasury stock, and other comprehensive income.

In order for the readers of these financial statements to make comparisons with other companies, it is necessary that the financial statements follow some common rules. The rules are referred to as generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP (pronounced gap) and consist of several components. One component of GAAP is the basic or fundamental accounting principles and concepts such as cost, matching, going concern, economic entity, materiality, conservatism, consistency, reliability, and others. You can see a brief explanation of these basic principles along with an example of each at AccountingCoach.com.

Another part of GAAP includes the detailed rules established by the Financial Accounting Standards Board or FASB (pronounced fas Bee). These pronouncements are entitled statements of financial accounting standards. FASB interpretations are also part of GAAP. You can view these pronouncements at www.FASB.org/st. The accounting rules established by the predecessors of the FASB remain as GAAP unless they have been superceded by the FASB.

Lastly, GAAP includes industry practices. For example, the balance sheet of a public utility will list the plant assets ahead of its current assets. Unique reporting practices often occur in industries that are regulated by government agencies.

The financial accounting and financial reporting of publicly traded corporations also include the annual report to the Securities and Exchange Commission (Form 10-K), the annual report to stockholders, and various press releases on financial matters.

The Accounting Coach is a former university instructor known for his clarity in presenting accounting information. He now spends his time developing a free website of accounting material, http://www.AccountingCoach.com

How to Sell Covered Calls, Part 1

There is a way. By selling a call when you also own 100 shares of the underlying stock, you cover your position. If the option is called away by the buyer, you can meet the obligation simply by delivering shares that you already own.

You enjoy several advantages through the covered call.

You are paid a premium for each call that you sell, and the cash is placed in your account at the time you sell. While this is also true of uncovered call writing, the same risks do not apply. You can afford exercise because you own 100 shares of stock. Upon exercise, you would not be required to buy shares at market price; you simply relinquish ownership of the shares you already own.

The actual net price of your 100 shares of stock is reduced by the value of the option premium. The covered call discounts your basis because you receive cash when you sell the call. This gives you flexibility and downside protection, as well as greater versatility in selling calls with high time value.

Selling covered calls provides you with the freedom to accept moderate interim price declines, because the premium you receive reduces your basis in the stock. Simply owning the stock without the discount means that declines in the stock's market value represent paper losses.

By selling calls against appreciated stock, you are able to augment profits and, in the case of exercise, build in a capital gain as well.

The disadvantage to covered call selling is found in lost opportunity risk that may or may not materialize. If the stock's market value rises dramatically, your call will be exercised at the specified striking price. If you had not sold the call, you would benefit from higher market value in shares of stock. So covered call sellers trade the certainty of premiums received today, for the potential lost profits in the event of exercise.

Tip: The major risk associated with covered call writing is the possibility of lost income from rising stock prices. But that might not happen at all; when you sell a call, you accept the possibility of lost capital gains income in exchange for the certainty of call premium income.

Get your Momentum Stock Trading System and sign up for my free weekly online trading system newsletter here at: http://www.stressfreetrading.com

Monday, September 24, 2007

Make Money Fast - A Specific Method Anyone Can Use

If youre looking for advice like you need to be motivated or adopt the right mindset to make money this article is not for you If on the other hand you want a specific method you can use right now to make money fast in clear easy steps and only need small seed capital then read on.

Were going to look at the facts that this method of making money fast works and were going to look at the turtle experiment which will show you the potential and then how you can do it.

The turtles experiment

Was conducted by legendary trader Richard Dennis in just 14 days he taught 23 people from all walks of life to trade financial markets (before you say thats to hard or to expensive read on)

The experiment arose because Dennis believed trading could be learned but his partner disagreed - the experiment was conducted to prove who was right and Dennis won after 14 days these traders went on to make Dennis $100 million dollars!

Could you do the same?

Well you may not earn as much as the turtles, but the opportunity is there for all to make money fast. Before we move on to what you have to do, lets dispel two myths about trading financial markets first:

1.You need a lot of money

No you dont you can today open an online account with a credit card for just a few hundred dollars

2.Financial trading requires intelligence and hard work

Nothing could be further from the truth trading requires learning the right knowledge consider that Dennis taught this in 14 days to people who had never traded and many game from blue collar jobs, so if they can learn it so can you.

So how do you get the right education?

You use the net and all the information is free (see our other articles for how to do it) and keep it simple. Once you have a simple method you need to practice it and have confidence and then trade it ( you can do a dry run in a real time demo account offered by brokers to test your skills ) when your ready you can trade Now consider this:

Money makes money!

We have all heard this saying and its true. Now if you trade financial markets (and the best is the forex markets) you get an advantage:

They will allow you to leverage your money. For example if you have $1000, they will let you leverage it at 100:1 thats 100 x 1,000 or $100,000 you can invest. This leverage can therefore work for or against you.

With leverage you need a system that cuts loses quickly and runs profits. Look at a graph of currencies and you will see that repetitive trends that last for months constantly occur your aim is to lock into them for profit and cut any losses quickly.

This is an odds game and similar to blackjack or poker.

Its no coincidence that many top forex traders were once blackjack or poker players. Why are they so good at it? Because they know that to win you have to bet only when the odds are in their favour and fold when their not.

Many of these blackjack players are not particularly intelligent or highly educated but they know that if they follow a simple system that is odds based they will win.

So how to I get started?

Start looking on the net, learn about the turtles and technical analysis and read up on how to trade the odds in forex markets. Get the book the Way Of The Turtle by Curtis Faith and also Market Wizards by Jack Shwager which outline the experiment in more detail.

Its up to you!

The turtle experiment provided that anyone can be a successful financial trader and its true anyone can.

All you need to do is learn the right knowledge and have the courage to apply it.

The opportunity to build wealth and make money fast is there for all you just have to decide if you want success enough to try forex trading and make it work for you.

NEW! 5 X Critical Trader PDF's & Much More

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In the Eye of the Beholder

In July of 2005, the Road Traffic Management Corporation reported that, during the 2003-2004 crash statistics reporting period, more people died on South African roads each day (one every 48 minutes) than people were killed in Iraq, an acknowledged war zone.

Historically, bad road conditions have only been responsible for roughly 5% of our accidents; human error, irresponsible and drunken driving have been said to cause far more bodily annihilation than poor road conditions.

The percentage of accidents for which bad road conditions are directly responsible, has leapt through 10% and is heading for 15%, Gary Ronald of the AASA, reported. As a result, the AA has begun a campaign to encourage road users to SMS the AA with information about poor road conditions. Potholes, missing traffic signs and flooding are notable concerns.

Theirs is not the only campaign of this nature. Whether they succeed in galvanising municipalities, provinces and highway management consultants into speedier and more competent repair action, is debatable.

The authorities must accept that poor road conditions not only affect crashes, but also cause considerable congestion, poor public-transport access and contribute significantly to the cost of vehicle maintenance. All of which directly affects people in all economic categories; their lives and their deaths.

Strategic objective (Department of Transports 2000 2005 The Road to Safety document)

In order to realise the mission, an equally clear and simple strategic objective is required. We have set this objective as being:"To reduce crashes, deaths and injuries on South Africas roads by 5% year-on-year until the year 2005 at a saving to the economy of R770 million per annum and then, based on the strengthened institutional platform created, by at least 10% year-on-year until the year 2009."The targets have been set in carefully separated stages to take realistic account of the constraints still facing us in the current phase of fundamental restructuring of road traffic safety management. This restructuring work lies at the heart of The Road to Safety.In 2005 we will thoroughly review the emerging statistical trends and, if these trends are as positive as we hope, recommit ourselves to the more ambitious target of 10% (or, if justified by progress, consider setting a higher target).

Ouch! Eina! And Eish! Enough said

Even the Minister of Transport had the grace to mention, in a message on the DoT website, ironically headed: Taking the road to Safety that there are serious disparities in road conditions, nationally.

Management and delivery

It is commonly considered politically correct to blame the previous regime for the state of our roads. Over a decade has passed since the newly victorious entered (left, through ballot box) with full knowledge that service delivery had not addressed the entire population for over a century and had been seriously diminished during the prior decade, as the ruling party non-comrades redirected their focus towards the more personal issue of coping on reduced income.

This is underscored by the state of the inherited rail system. Where once the rail service was quite phenomenal (envisioned by Rhodes in his dream of a monopoly from Cape to Cairo) branch lines and outlying stations were closed down in the late 80s declared unprofitable in a country where an independent public transport/taxi industry was becoming a noticeable force.

Assets that are not adequately maintained will very soon become liabilities a rule of life just as first-time homeowners discover that their bond payments are negligible when compared to the cost of maintaining and improving their home over the life of its bond. And like bond interest, negligence compounds, until renovation becomes virtually unaffordable. It follows that the budget necessary to maintain and expand South Africas once-excellent road structure is now exorbitant.

Other factors, like the refusal by many, to pay for services, tax evasion of many working in informal-sector industries (crime and drug dealing, for instance), the migration of people to our cities (and a hybridised shack-dwelling lifestyle) and the high rate of unemployment, have made it even more difficult to restore what has now been neglected for at least two decades.

Now that the penny seems to have dropped, so has its value and maintenance costs have soared.

Public evolution

Moreover, as jobs have become more available to a wider market and the economy develops, so those who once might never have expected to travel further from home than their closest town, have become frequent and seasoned travellers. Large numbers have afforded their own vehicles and enjoy complete freedom of movement.

Sanctions ensured that instruments of industry, such as ports, freight transport and the other trappings of healthy economies, became fairly unprofitable. Not only those aboard the previous gravy train paid the price of sanctions. Despite surges in the economy, the technological era, an ultra-just constitution and definitive labour laws have marginalized ordinary people.

It was no secret that virtually every sphere of public business was bound to need urgent regeneration, come 1994. It is hardly surprising that our roads have taken such a beating, now that more vehicles are pounding past us, more times, on a daily basis.

First prize will surely go to a plan that incorporates most of what South Africa urgently needs to set her people free.

Ditches to nowhere

Across the sea, America has a similar history to ours vast tracts of land colonised by pasty, white foreigners, who credited the native Americans and their own slaves, with debatably fewer rights than those awarded to their South African counterparts.

There, Franklin D Roosevelt, is famed for his Five Year Plan. On the return of many thousand troops from World War I, unemployment and hardship were rife as America sank into a post-war recession. His plan ensured that jobs, mainly requiring unskilled labour, were available for returning troops.

They didnt pay much, but they did prevent families from starving and labourers moved to outlying and eventually, rural areas, as they followed the projects initiated, creating a magnificent infrastructure for the USA.

Roosevelts Five Year Plan opened up areas where no thinking person would previously have chosen to live and presented new, unforeseen opportunities for necessary service industries and businesses.

As projects were completed, so the state was slowly relieved of the salary burden. Individuals bought land and established entire communities.

Gold rush

South Africans will see the similarity to our colonial past, with gold and diamonds the local incentive. Despite the fact that the colonial and Apartheid eras are so criticised, they did achieve for South Africa many of those features that modern society considers essential to well being up to a point.

There appears to be an incentive to repeat the American strategy in South Africa. It has, in fact, been introduced in at least one province already, to a lesser degree. In KZN, rural people, many female breadwinners, are employed by the state to keep rural roads passable: fill in potholes, cut grass and alert the authorities to essential, urgent, major repairs after extreme weather conditions.

This presently only ensures that some rural families have regular, if meagre, income. But it works! To complete bigger projects, it only needs to work better. The more jobs that are made available in rural areas, the more incentive there is for city squatters to return to those areas.

The strategy could provide countless benefits, in the shape of thriving communities that would need more shops, services and facilities.

Funding

South Africa has, altogether, a road network of some 65 000km. The South African National Roads Agency Limited (SANRAL) is mandated is to develop, maintain and manage South Africa's 7 200 km national road network comprising over R30 billion in assets, excluding land.

In September 2005, SANRAL reported a spend of R1.2 billion for maintaining the national road network during the 2004/2005 financial year. Revenue had grown from R1.3 billion to R2.2 billion profit stood at R406 million. SANRALs annual report stated that the road network had grown by 1 560km (77% of which were non-toll roads) during that period, to a total of 10 880km.

When the agency was formed in 1998, the intention of DoT was to decrease its annual Treasury subsidy until it became self-supporting; the entire point being that it should function as a private entity, despite its responsibility to report to the Minister of Transport, its owner and sole shareholder.

In July 2006, Minister Radebe quoted (in reply to a parliamentary question) that public funds for national roads will almost triple (from the R1.2-billion allocated for 2002/2003) to R3.5-billion by the 2008/2009 financial year. Over the same period, provincial road allocations will grow from R5.2 billion to R11.8 billion. The private sector has apparently contributed more than R9 billion via concession contracts for national roads, since 1998 (iafrica, 24/7/06).

Although we are regularly told that government is unable to budget sufficient to keep roads maintained and that plans are afoot to surtax the driving public in some provinces, supplementary to the fuel levy, no mention was made as to whether the above amounts included the levy or not.

Question time

Pertinent questions occur:

Does SANRAL still benefit from a government subsidy, despite its 2004/2005 R406 million profit?

Does Treasury release the fuel levy to DoT in Pretoria, to provincial government, municipalities or to SANRAL? And how regularly does this happen?

Which specific projects have been funded from the levy during the years of its existence? (Do we know how it has been spent?)

How do we know that there really is insufficient funding for road maintenance?

How are the funds that are collected from traffic notices, provincially and municipally, used?

Although government policy dictates transparency, the public will only be told as much as it asks to know. In clichd terms: if we dont know the answers, were asking the wrong questions.

As those working within public service structures are aware, the transport discipline falls under various departments in different provinces: Transport, Public Works or Safety and Security. Thus, in different provinces, road engineering and maintenance are accorded different priorities. No wonder, service delivery standards are not constant.

Ball control

If hosting the 2010 World Cup galvanises Transport into action, it will have served a useful purpose. Should it result in an influx of buses, taxis and freight transport, the success of a few months bustling activity could turn into disaster for the future the road infrastructure being already inadequate for the amount of traffic using it.

In June 2006, Naamsa reported a total of 35 071 passenger vehicles were sold during May (a 16.6% increase on the same month in 2005). Business Day then reported, in July 2006, that the road infrastructure does not have sufficient capacity to carry current volumes.

Small wonder, then that congestion paranoia is heightened. It will take far more than a few jolly soccer matches, still four years ahead, for government to confront and conquer the backlog. Add into the equation: a shortage of engineers and it seems clear that the road environment in SA is unlikely to improve much, soon.

Supply chain

Eyefortransports view (6/7/05) that the local capacity crisis in the transportation industry is only a reflection of a similar, global situation where demand outstrips capacity and the reason for the speed at which our roads are deteriorating, becomes apparent, is not comforting.

Between the 2002/2003 and 2005/2006 financial years, Engineering News (14-20/7/06) reported an increase of 16.5% heavy trucks registered. This article also mentioned decreases in rail locomotives (33%) and rail wagons (28%) for the same period, so we should not expect, it seems, Spoornets rolling stock to be saving our socks any time soon!

Perhaps consideration should be given to whether our heavy transport toll fees are covering the cost of the resulting road damage. The perception is that rail prices itself out of the market, but it is possible that rail is only just covering costs that government transport budgets are actually subsidising in the freight transport industry, to the detriment of the bottomless pit of road maintenance.

The ratio of 1300 sedan to overloaded extra heavy in road damage just does not seem to be proportionate to the toll fees charged. Although it has been suggested that weighbridges should be installed at all toll plazas, to ensure that overload tolls are collected repeatedly over long trips (thus freeing up enforcement officials for other work) exercises of this nature are deemed too expensive.

Clearly, I havent done the arithmetic, but I do hope that someone has, because it appears to be an excellent long-term answer to a situation where fixing the roads is also considered too expensive!

Dedicated routes

A suggestion to build a dedicated freight transport highway between Johannesburg and Durban initially appeared to be innovative. The N3 presently carries immense loads and vehicle numbers, putting the safety of all who travel on it, at tremendous risk. Perhaps, though, we should pause to consider possible trends into the future:

Is the N3 likely to remain as congested by freight into the future?

Will the Richards Bay hub take some of the pressure off it in future years?

If so, would a dedicated freight transport highway duplicating the present N2 route, not prove a more sensible option?

If the present fuel depots in Durban are moved to Richards Bay or Coega, wouldnt a dedicated freight transport highway or pipeline from there to Gauteng be more worthwhile?

In fact, the amount of planned development reported for all South Africas ports, including Port Elizabeth and East London, is extensive. One wonders just how much coordination exists between one plan and another when bombarded by the numerous suggestions made in the press:

Cape Town Harbour, it seems, would like a bit of the Durban pie; Maputo provides easier harbour access for Gauteng (but has a problematic border post); the Eastern Cape expects a sharp increase in inland-moving road freight on a newly-built highway that will allow the province to compete with its more industrialised neighbours; 400-plus kilometres can be cut off the journey West, but for some reason isnt proving popular with freight transporters

We know that predictions made in the Moving South Africa report have already been outstripped. Has anyone in authority rehashed them? Have any statistical forecasts been done to establish where we will be in 5, 10 and 20 years? Does anyone really know which way we are heading and how we anticipate getting there? What logistical research capacity does Transport have?

Crystal gazing

After recent heavy rains and flooding, many roads, particularly those in the Eastern Cape, deteriorated significantly. Video clips on TV news programmes showed the N2 slipping seawards and dirt roads that were more crater than roadway. We could not but sympathise with anyone trusting vehicles to them. No driver with a loaded taxi would eagerly negotiate their terrors, even at walking pace. Only a yuppie intent on pushing his flashy, new SUV to its limits, could feel exhilaration.

We can all empathise with people in rural areas, subsisting on next to nothing, next to virtually nothing! Their lives have doubtless become far more lonely and difficult since so many of their neighbours joined the influx to the cities. Just as there is no logic in providing frequent public transport that may frequently travel empty, or almost empty, the fact is, that in under populated areas, keeping roads in tip-top condition is nigh impossible.

Few people are gainfully or regularly employed, few pay taxes and extreme poverty makes it tremendously difficult for people to find the fares for public transport. Retail therapy is simply not on their list of regular amusement. Yet, these people have as much need for reasonable roads as those of us whose health would vastly benefit from a quick walk to the shops.

The introduction of democratic community road safety forums encourages community participation in decisions about safety upgrades to township and rural roads. Based on the premise that some communities respond more positively to agreed changes and that those living in an area understand the prevailing conditions better than visiting professionals, the forums have proved extremely successful.

Whether urban or rural, whether in up-market or really poor areas, community road enhancement seems to have depended, latterly, quite heavily on a proliferation of one-way streets, speed humps, 4-way stops and traffic circles, all of which increase traffic congestion and totally negate a need for professional engineering abilities. Smooth traffic flow has been totally subjugated in favour of slowing traffic to a crawl.

Although these tactics were devoted to saving lives, interestingly, focus on congestion was limited until Trevor Manual complained publicly and bitterly about the amount of time it was taking him to get to work every morning. Have the decisions made by road safety forums reduced road deaths over the long term? Are road deaths in urban areas down? Now, that would be a really interesting piece of researchbecause, as far as we can calculate, the numbers are still climbing somewhere!

Warning bells

South Africa: home of the pothole, corrugations, blocked storm-water drains, washed-away craters, falling, thrown or strategically placed rocks and burning tyre barricades. There is little doubt that our road-user culture is one of a kind!

Road reports with up-to-date information on road conditions and ongoing road repairs are now available at the click of a mouse, through the press, radio and television. They even warn about hazardous weather conditions and recommend alternative routes. These general services to the public make pre-trip planning a pleasure and can also provide opportunities to avoid congestion.

But few of us would think to check, on a daily basis, that our route to work was not to be disrupted. Nor would potholes left by road workers the previous day, be mentioned there. Rush-hour traffic jams are often caused by unmarked, inner-city road works.

In February 2006, in a city downpour, several vehicles were immobilised and abandoned whilst negotiating a man-made trough that ran the entire width of Umgeni Road, in Durban. It had clearly remained unmarked the entire night. By 10:00, the area had still not been secured, nor was there any officer directing traffic.

Commuters battled the elements and various vehicle disabilities until noon, when sandbags were used to shore up the road. One wonders how many vehicles hit that hole (at the regulation 60kmph speed) in the dark the previous eveningno wonder our taxis are in such atrocious condition!

Last week, road workers in the next road to our home refilled holes to about ten centimetres below the surrounding road surface and left without marking the spot. The drivers who regularly use that road took a few days to remember, on approaching, to avoid itby moving into the oncoming lane.

Safe? Hardly; and then we wonder why our wheels are not balanced, our tyres wear quickly and our shock absorbers take strain. Yet, because we travel that road regularly, our perception remains that the road surface is reasonable.

Expect the worst

It is often said that the reason South Africans believe their roads are bad, is because they perceive them to be perfectwork that one out! In essence, because so many of our roads are actually excellent, we have an exceedingly low tolerance for those that are less than perfect. We are so spoilt rotten that we expect the impossible of the authorities whose function it is, to keep all our vehicles rolling along.

Its a point worth considering: even the most law-abiding citizens find it difficult to keep to the urban speed limit. Modern cars beg to hit 70kmph before reaching fourth and this makes the adage Dont fool yourself, speed kills, one that many drivers are pleased to disdain.

Back to basics

Speed for circumstanceif all the possible circumstances that could confront South African drivers are considered, bad road conditions should head the list. Do we have good cause for complaint? Indubitably, I believe! There is little doubt that, from municipalities to highway management consultancies, our roads are not checked, maintained or upgraded as well as they should be.

I believe it to be a management issue insufficient teams are detailed to perform checks regularly. Unless road workers alert road management to dubious conditions they have left behind, no follow up will occur. Extreme road damage is mostly a seasonal occurrence and can be anticipated. Seasonal workers can be employed to cope with it.

Heres a simple equation to get you going: no road maintenance = no sustainability = no benefits.

About the Author:

Moira Haarhoff

Initially completed a graphic design diploma and worked for 25 years in:

Print media e.g. Natal Mercury, Fair Lady and RP stable (Art Director of Darling magazine and of Style magazine).

Advertising e.g. Grey, Phillips, Bunton, Mundel & Blake, BBDO Health & Medical, Freedman & Rossi. Also freelanced for all major Johannesburg advertising

Design studios e.g. Grey Action. Also freelanced for Paton Tupper, Bates Direct, FCB Direct.

PR, promotions and experiential marketing Acuity Group.

After completing a bookkeeping and accountancy diploma, I worked for CIA International in the field of credit information, in sales, service and marketing. Strategy, planning, co-ordination and communication for the initial Arrive Alive campaign at the Department of Transport, in Pretoria, from 1997-2000. I opened my own business in 2002 and became an associate of the IIB in January 2006, as a business consultant to SMEs:

  • marketing and communications
  • writing commissioned articles
  • editing and proof reading
  • market research and social-science research and

Sunday, September 23, 2007

Wall Street to Main Street: News, Views and Commentary: June 19, 2006

Its Monday June 19, 2006, and its the first day of the trading week and it should be an interesting one. Verizon (NYSE: VZ) has taken the bull by the horns as they struck a multiyear deal with PBS TV Stations to carry a wide array of PBS programming on the new Verizon TV Business. The lines are getting thinner and the war between phone companies and cable operators will begin to heat up this summer.

On the heels of that, the new FCC rules that would loosen the noose on major phone companies have been upheld by the U.S. Appeals court. Basically the large phone companies will not have to provide access to their networks in the residential arena. So smaller phone companies that are trying to grab market share from companies like AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon will have a tough time of it as the major carriers own the infrastructure that allows for service to a majority of the residential areas through out the country.

Political Front

In the Saddam Hussein trial prosecutors are pushing for the death penalty for Saddam Hussein and three of his former aides for crimes against humanity following a 1982 crackdown on Shi'ites in which hundreds were killed and tortured. So Hussein will rant and rave until the gavel comes down and his fate is sealed.

North Korea plans on testing a missile launch that, fully fueled, could reach as far as Alaska. So both the United States and Japan have warned North Korea against the launch. North Korea is taking advantage of the worlds attention that is diverted to Iraq and Iran to run this test. So this is a developing story.

Here in New York, city lawmakers are coming down hard on the Department of Homeland Security's decision to cut anti-terror funding. This comes on the heels of a report that came out over the weekend that showed that al-Qaida had a plan to attack the NYC subway system in 2003.

Tid Bits

To combat the mighty Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERICY) Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and Siemens (NYSE:SI) have both agreed to a joint venture that will merge their mobile network operations, creating a $20 billion entity. Now the new venture will be called Nokia Siemens Networks and is still subject to regulatory approval, but if this should go through two things will certainly happen, one is that Ericsson will be given a run for their money and two , close to 10,000 jobs will be eliminated. That is the casualty of this mobile network war. It is a smart move for both companies, as the mobile arena is getting tighter. So expect for these stocks to trade higher on this news.

After months of Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) creating historic lows in its trading history. UBS sees value in the company. The upgraded the stock from a Neutral to a Buy and gave the stock a target price of $23 and that is up from $21.Now the question is will the Institutional money begin to flow back into Intel or will the UBS upgrade just entice individual investors to jump on board. The stock closed at $18.30 on Friday.

Now lets take a look at the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) front, last week Bill Gates stated that he will be stepping down from the Day to Day duties of Microsoft. Now this is definitely getting mixed reactions as he was the visionary behind the company and at one point in time gave a helping hand to Apple Computer (NASDAQ: AAPL) when the company was down on its luck. But times do change, Microsoft, once being a vibrant young company that dared to be different, topping the one time juggernaut IBM (NYSE: IBM) seem to have gotten too big to have that burning desire and vision. With Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) looking to grab software market share from Mr. Softie by giving people what they want but for free seems to be just another nail being driven into the coffin of Microsoft. Now dont count them out just yet, Mr. Softie is coming out with guns blazing against Apples iPod success by launching its own MP3 player. Some think that its late in the game but technology is constantly changing so they still may have a shot, but 10 years or so ago would Mr. Softie have waited so long to be at the forefront of an evolution?, all that we can do at this point is wait and see what the reaction will be to the new product line, the shift in management and whether the software giant will consider splitting the company at some point down the road.

Movers and Shakers

Some major movers in yesterdays trading session included Focus Media Holdings (NASDAQ: FMCN) , we mentioned Focus Media when it hit a ceiling of $68 three times in a row and sent out an alert that it could pull back into the $51 range, which it did. We also alerted our readers that once it found a bottom that their next trip up to $68 would be fierce and create a base in that level. The stock traded up $6.28 on Friday to close at $60.78, the momentum has been building up in the company and you should see it try to reach that ceiling this week. We also mentioned that their United States based mirror image is a small little known company by the name of Impart Media Group (OTCBB: IMMGE), for those that have taken steps in researching and getting involved in the company should listen in on their analyst/investor conference call that is set up for this Thursday. Take a look at their latest press release for call-in details.

Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD) made nice movement on Friday, trading up $4.69 to close at $44.31. The company announced about a week ago that they have upped their stake in a ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Alaska offshore project called Cosmopolitan Unit, from 10% to 50%. So the stock moved up along with several other Natural Gas companies but investors had time this weekend to ponder many things that happened in the previous week and Pioneer Natural may be one of them.

Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) made moves on the upside on Friday after reports surfaced that the New York based Polo was on the road to striking a deal with JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) in the form of an exclusive partnership. This would give a big boost to Polo and definitely add to JC Penneys bottom line. Polo closed up $2.30 to close at $57.00 on Friday.

Other stocks that made nice moves on Thursday include Martek Biosciences (NASDAQ: MATK) which traded up $2.77 to close at $29.48, Cigna (NYSE: CI) traded up $2.25 to close at $93.45, Winnebago Industries (NYSE: WGO) traded up $2.21 to close at $30.64, Rockwell Automation (NYSE: ROK) traded up $1.71 to close at $67.39 and New Century Financial (NYSE: NEW) traded up $1.69 to close at $47.00.

Neurocrine (NASDAQ: NBIX) traded down on heavy volume on Friday, the stock tumbled $4.19 to close at $15.18 after stating that the company may have to supply the FDA with additional safety data to get the approval from them. This could lead to big delays, as they will undoubtedly need to conduct further clinical studies to get the FDA the information that they need.

After OmniVision Tech (NASDAQ: OVTI) announced great numbers analyst had a chance to review their quartley earnings and question the quality of those earnings. Analyst at both Piper Jaffray and Needham & Co questioned that as well as the companys outlook. So this drove the stock down $3.37 to close at $23.44 on Friday, this was on over 14 million shares traded. Their average volume has been approximately 1.8 million. So once the bleeding stops OmniVision may require a second look.

Under Ten

Some stocks that made moves on the upside under ten bucks include Britesmile (NASDAQ: BSML) for some odd reason closed up 90 cents to close at $3.23 on Friday. Initially the stock gained lots of interest on the heels of a fluff bid from one of their private competitors, which Britesmile graciously turned down. So you can expect the stock to slip back a bit over the coming days after the bump up last week. But who knows perhaps the fluff bid for the company may be backed up by a solid financial group, but that may not be likely just yet.

Orthovita (NASDAQ: VITA) traded up 41 cents on Friday when word got out that the Food and Drug Administration approved its product for controlling bleeding during surgeries. Now this may also pull back a bit even though the run wasnt tremendous it did hit a new 52 week high, which could cause for a pullback.

Wet Seal (NASDAQ: WTSLA) received an upgrade by Matrix Research from a Sell to A Hold, this morning and it should be a welcome upgrade which could give boost to investor confidence in Wet Seal. So look for a tad bit of movement in this one today.

Other stocks that moved higher yesterday under ten bucks included Catalyst Semiconductor (NASDAQ: CATS) which traded up 27 cents to close at $3.89, Memry corp (AMEX: MRY) traded up 23 cents to close at $2.90, Great Basin Gold (AMEX: GBN) traded up 20 cents to close at $1.85 and Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) traded up 19 cents to close at $4.71 on Friday.

Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades

Recent Analyst upgrades include aQuantive (NASDAQ: AQNT) was upgraded to a Buy from a Neutral by Merriman, Curhan Ford & Co and to an Outperform from a Market Perform by Piper Jaffray, Martin Marietta Materials (NYSE: MLM) was upgraded to an Outperform from an In-Line by Goldman Sachs, Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) was upgraded to an Overweight from an Equal Weight by Lehman Brothers, Vulcan Marterials (NYSE: VMC) was upgraded to an Outperform from an Inline by Goldman Sachs and Monster Worldwide (NASDAQ: MNST) was upgraded to a n Overweight from an Equal-Weight by Morgan Stanley.

Recent Analyst downgrades include Petsmart (NASDAQ: PETM) was downgraded to a Neutral from an Outperform by Credit Suisse, and Michaels Stores (NYSE: MIK) was downgraded to a Peer Perform from an Outperform by Thomas Weisel Partners.

Recent analyst coverage initiations include Vishay Intertechnology (NYSE: VSH) which was initiated with a Hold rating and a $16.50 price target by Citigroup Investment Research, Novacea Inc (NASDAQ: NOVC) was initiated with an Outperform rating by Cowen 7 Co, Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) was initiated with an Outperform rating and a $30 price target by Credit Suisse, RH Donnelley (NYSE: RHD) was initiated with an Overweight rating and a $64 price target by Lehman Brothers, the stock closed at $51.55 on Friday and Allscripts Healthcare Solution (NASDAQ: MDRX) was initiated with a Neutral rating by UBS.

FURIOUS FIVE

Today we are featuring Universal Truckload Services (NASDAQ: UCAL) as our Furious Five feature on the Investors Corner. As our subscribers already know, this will be sent out separately later today to subscribers only.

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Disclaimer: None of the information contained on the NAMC Newswire constitutes a recommendation by the NAMC Newswire, its journalist, nor its parent company that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific investors or person. Each individual investor must make their own independent decisions regarding any security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy featured on the NAMC Newswire or NAMC Radio Any past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. The NAMC Newswire, its journalist nor its parent company does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit, and all investors should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investments featured on the NAMC Newswire or the NAMC Radio. The strategy or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value and investors may get back less than you invested. Before acting on any information featured on the NAMC Newswire website or the NAMC Radio segment, investors should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from their own financial or investment adviser. Investors are also urged to do their own due diligence before investing in any security.

All opinions featured on the NAMC Newswire or NAMC Radio are based upon information that is considered to be reliable, but neither the NAMC Newswire, its journalist, its parent company, affiliates nor assigns warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. The statements and opinions featured on the NAMC Newswire by its journalist are based on their outlook at the time of the statement or opinion, and are subject to change without notice. NAMC may at times hold a position in the companies that it features, in these cases appropriate disclosure is made.

Louis Victor is the host of the syndicated radio show and financial newsletter "Wall Street to Main Street" which is featured on the NAMC Newswire Radio. He has been involved in the financial industry for over two decades, on the retail and investment banking ends. He is also well versed in the advertising and marketing industries, which has given him insight into market trends and unqiue companies that may be under the radar.

Day Trading

Day trading is an integral part of the stock market. These traders are always looking to make some quick easy money, and they buy and sell stocks and options for a quick profit, they generally hold their position for short terms, usually less than a day, hence the name Day Trading. The trader buys shares not with an investment purpose but with a quick profit in mind.

The day traders keep buying and selling throughout the day with the intention of a short term profit. The value stock keeps fluctuating second to second throughout the day and as it does, the fortunes of the traders also fluctuate. It is high risk trading and not for the faint of heart.

Many day traders operate with borrowed money, they obtain money at high interest with the hope that their profits will cover the cost of the loan. This is a risky way to try and make a living, resulting in tremendous pressure to succeed. A person operating under this type of pressure seldom makes good decisions, resulting in terrible losses. Which in turn feeds the cycle, borrow more money, higher pressure to win, poor decisions.

Day trading is neither illegal nor is it unethical. But it is risky. You need to keep certain factors in mind before deciding to try your hand at day trading. An investor must be mentally prepared to suffer huge risks and he must be financially capable of making good his losses should the need arise. The trader should only invest only what they can afford to lose. They should not take the house payment and stick it into the stock market.

It has been said, if you can't drive down the road with your car windows rolled down and hundred dollar bills flying out the window and not get upset, then you shouldn't try day trading. Keep in mind, for most traders, day trading is not about investing, it is more like gambling, and is just as addictive. No one can predict how the stock market will react on a day to day basis, so a successful day trader must know how to lock in profits and cut his losses as soon as they can. Typically, this means not carrying their position overnight in the hope that the next day will bring better prices.

Day trading is not meant for the weak hearted, because it can be extremely stressful. It can take up your entire day with monitoring the stock prices. Just don't buy into the hype about easy money, and don't blindly follow any hot tips or leads. You need to do your research before you buy.

John Marston is a self taught trader who has traded online for over 15 years from his home in California. Here is the exclusive Forex Market Trading System that John uses; you can also go to his website at http://www.Trade-The-Stockmarket.com which has a wealth of information about various trading strategies. You can also read his Blog which describes some of his personal trading strategies.

Getting Started with Options Trading

If you are just getting started with options trading, you may feel a bit overwhelmed, since there is a wealth of available options and a multitude of ways to trade these same options. However, if you are determined, you can implement options trading as a successful investment strategy. You only need to realize what your ultimate goal is and what you hope to accomplish.

Since options trading can take on multiple roles in an investment portfolio, it is imperative that you have clear aim and focus before employing this particular method of investing. For example, your goal may be to protect your investment portfolio if the market takes a turn for the worst, or perhaps you have decided that you would like more income from your stocks. Whatever your goal or strategy is, it is essential to have one.

The next step, after deciding what you hope to achieve with options trading, is to begin learning about different options trading strategies so that you can implement a strategy or combination of strategies that will prove effective for your investment goals. There are a many strategies available for trading options, but the ones you implement will depend on what you hope to achieve.

After you have done your research, you are almost ready to begin trading options. Now you will need to choose a brokerage firm. The brokerage firm you choose will depend on the level of personalized service that you will require. If you are not yet quite comfortable with investing, you will do best to choose a firm that will guide you along as you master options trading. If you are pretty comfortable with your knowledge level, then you may choose to go with a discounted firm that does not offer the same level of personalization as the more expensive firms.

Before you begin trading options, you will be required by your brokerage firm to fill out and submit an options trading agreement. This form is used by the firm to ascertain your knowledge of options trading as well as your overall investment knowledge.

Your firm will approve you for a certain level of options trading based on the information you provide on the options trading agreement form. So if you are just getting started, it is probably safe to say that you will not be approved for certain strategies at first. This is because some of the strategies associated with options trading are pretty risky for an unknowledgeable person, and the firm uses this as sort of a built in protection feature, for both the client and itself.

Trading stock options can be a rewarding experience, both mentally and financially. However, in order to gain the most from your options trading experience, you must be diligent about your research and willing to continually expand your trading knowledge.

Daniel Beatty, DVM is an option trader that specializes in trading conservative strategies. He runs an informational website and blog providing details on how to trade these strategies along with reviews of the best option courses and books. To take advantage of this great information and more make sure you check out Dr. Dan's site at http://www.conservative-options.com

Surviving The Commodity Markets, PART 1 - Trading Guidelines For Different Account Sizes

Of all the important skills in trading, survival is number one. For unless we make it through the inevitable bad times, we won't be around to capitalize on the good. I've laid out some trading account guidelines that specify the account size required to conduct various commodity futures and option trading activities. Stick within these guidelines and you will have an edge on most of the commodity trading public.

The most important factor to success in commodity futures trading is our ability to survive the bad times. The second most important factor is our ability to identify and then take low risk, high probability commodity trades. Conquer these two and you are well on our way to trading success.

Yes, taking low risk, high probability commodity trade recommendations isn't enough. It's up to you to take the next step and follow the account survival guidelines discussed here. By surviving, you will be ready and able to participate in the favorable commodity trades that eventually come along, like buses in the night.

The commodity markets always change from trending to choppy and back again. There will be tough markets. You can count on this. We need to have several methods to cope with this uncertainty. We can never be sure of each individual trades outcome, so we need to put probability on our side to prepare for a losing string of trades.

One way is to have more chips at the table than our competition. A way to simulate this is by trading small breaking our account equity into ten to twenty parts (or more) and never risking more than 7.5% maximum on any one trade or idea. Many professionals with large accounts risk even less, like well under 5% a trade.

The problem with this plan is when we are dealing with smaller accounts. When the commodity trading account is under $20,000, to comply with 5% to 7.5% risk can mean taking on very small positions. Some commodity traders tend to get restless for bigger action and start breaking the rules. For example, with a $10,000 account, we should look to risk no more than $1,000 on each trade. (10%) Even this figure is too high.

If we risk less, like, 5% ($500), then the bad times are more survivable. The thing to remember is you can do all the in and out trading you want. You can grant options, spread options, hedge, buy dips, sell rallies day trade, etc - do whatever suits you. Just keep the risk for each trade down below 10% and preferably at 5% and you increase your chances of success markedly over the reckless plunger.

Next we will talk about actual account sizes and suggested activity.

Part Two of Six Parts - Next

There is substantial risk of loss trading futures and options and may not be suitable for all types of investors. Only risk capital should be used.

Thomas Cathey - 27-year trading veteran heads the managed futures division of Thomas Capital Management, LLC. View his TimeLine Trading market predictions and get his complete, free 44+ lesson, "Thomas Commodity Trading Course". http://www.thomascapitalmanagement.com/commodity/welcome.htm

Main site: http://www.ThomasCapitalManagement.com

Economic Survival in the 21st Century - the Three Key Questions to Ask

In this special report, I want to pose a few important philosophical questions to my readers. Firstly -- our Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, addressed the effects and implications of our aging population on things such as Social Security again in a speech that he made last Friday. Readers may remember that I also briefly mentioned this issue in my June 24th commentary. I urge you to keep this worldwide phenomenon of the aging population firmly on the back of your minds. If you are like most people, then you earn you living by producing a certain thing such as a consumer good, or a service that the masses want. Lets face it how many people really struck it rich by being pure traders or investment managers? The stock market and other financial markets are definitely very important to us investors/traders but this super secular trend of the aging of the worldwide population will impact every aspect of our lives, whether it is losing our relative competitiveness on the world arena, increasing pension and healthcare costs, or even a potential fundamental change of our political system.

The second question that I want my readers to think about is the potential end to the era of cheap energy prices an era which we have basically enjoyed for the last two decades without thinking of the long-term repercussions. The United States, with less than five percent of the worlds population, currently consume approximately 25% of the worlds energy each year. Supply is maturing while demand continues to surge as exemplified by the surging in demand from China and India. In the meantime, spare energy-producing capacity and inventory levels have been at all-time lows potential for a perfect storm?

Finally, I want to ask my readers the following question: What kind of investor are you? What investing style do you adopt and what investing style are you most comfortable with? Can you be a contrarian and buy when the crowd is selling or are you merely a follower who is only comfortable if you fit in? These are straightforward questions but these are questions that you really need to ask yourselves in order to truly make money in investing over the long run. If my readers take the time out to thinking about these three questions or issues and ultimately have a firm grasp of even just one of the issues then you will be in a much better economic situation than most Americans five to ten years from now.

To begin, what are the potential implications of the aging population phenomenon? Readers my recall that in my June 24th commentary, I stated: Assuming that the current level of benefits remain into the future and assuming the level of taxes is not raised, then public benefits to retirees would dramatically increase going forward. On the extreme end, Japan and Spain will see a more than 100% increase in their outlays to retirees. Clearly, this is not sustainable. Either things such as defense or education spending will need to be cut, or the above countries will need to raise their taxes. Neither of the two scenarios is optimal. Borrowing more of their funds is not a long-term solution. Cutting funding in defense and education will comprise a countrys future, and raising taxes will place a huge social and financial burden on the population of the developed world where taxes are already at a historically high level. Think about this: If you were a bright, young, French industrialist and you were forced to pay 60% of your income as taxes to support the elderly, what would you do? Why, you would vote with your feet and relocate to another country that is more tax-friendly and business-friendly and so will other great talent that may have been a great contribution to the French economy. The governments of the developed world recognize this but there are no easy solutions.

This picture gets grimmer when one takes note of a study that was done by the Bank Credit Analyst. In that study, the BCA predicts that by the year 2050, the percentage share of the developed countries of the global population will drop from over 30% in 1950 to less than 14% -- or about equal to the population of the Islamic nations of the world. Similarly, Yemen will be more populous than Germany in 2050; while Iraq will be 30% more populous than Italy (Iraq is less than 40% the size of Italy today). Russias population is projected to continue to decrease at a rate such that the population of Iran will be even higher to that of Russias in 2050. India will be the most populous nation in the world, and Pakistan will only lag the U.S. by approximately 50 million people. If the developed countries of today do not choose to work harder or become more efficient, then they will ultimately lose their comparative advantage, as the younger population of the world is inherently more hard-working, energetic, innovative, and creative. In todays globalized world, this will be a killer for the average worker in the developed countries the more so once the language barrier is eliminated (the successful commercialization of universal language translators is projected to happen in ten to fifteen years). I am generally more optimistic, as the elimination of the language barrier will greatly enhance business opportunities and efficiencies, but a person such as the average American worker will loss his or her comparative advantage in the global workforce. The availability of a huge supply of labor should also drive down wages in the global marketplace and most probably increase the maldistribution of wealth in todays developed countries.

Like I have mentioned before, there are no easy solutions. If the average American sees an increase of 10 years in his or her life expectancy, can he or she reasonably or logically retire at the current normal retirement age of 65 (which was determined during the Roosevelt administration during the 1930s) without placing an undue burden on the system? The answer is most probably no. Applying the same working-years-to-retirement-years ratio to his or her new life expectancy, then the average American should probably work around five to six years more thus giving a revised normal retirement age of 70 or so. Moreover, all this analysis is based on the outdated population distribution in the form of a pyramid where the younger and more able workers represent a majority of the population (and where the elderly represents only a small minority of the general population). The pyramid distribution has historically facilitated government support of the elderly as the monetary and social burdens have been shouldered by a relatively large younger population. The current experience of Europe and Japan suggests a more uniform distribution in the population of those countries going forward as the birthrate in those countries are now dismally below the replacement rate of the population. The situation in the United States is not currently as drastic (given our relatively lax immigration policy) but we are heading towards the same direction. Thus to maintain the current standard of living at retirement, my guess is that the general population will not only have to work longer, but work longer hours in the present (and save more) as well.

The situation is more alarming when one considers that the combined population of China and India makes up over 1/3 of the worlds population. The number of unemployed workers in China is greater than the entire labor force of the United States. The competition for relatively unskilled jobs will continue, and it promises to accelerate going forward. The average American who does not stay ahead of the curve or does not keep pace of the trend will find his or her job being outsourced not to mention the average wage being driven down by global competition. I, for one, believe that this continuing trend of globalization will make the world a better place, as hundreds of thousands of people will finally be empowered as they climb out of absolute poverty (again, over half of the worlds population currently live on less than two dollars a day) and as the prices of consumer goods are driven down still further. The average American will probably disagree, but the trend of globalization and offshoring will not stop. The last time the United States adopted economic and military isolationism we had a Great Depression and subsequently, World War II. I sincerely do not think that this was a coincidence.

The trend of the general aging population and globalization will have a profound impact on all Americans. Ultimately, I think all Americans will benefit although it may not be clear to people who are losing their jobs today. For the initiated and nimble, you will not only survive but thrive in these interesting new times. Imagine a market for your product that is over ten times the size of the population in the United States. China and India has historically disappointed as the citizens of those countries have historically been too poor to consume much U.S. goods and services. Globalization and offshoring will change all these. A world more equalized economically will also mean a much more secure and less conflictive world.

Now, I want to address a similar concern of all Americans as the era of cheap energy (basically the cheap energy prices as experienced by Americans for the last twenty years) comes to a close. While I think oil prices will decline in the short-term (i.e. for the next few months), I am longer-term bullish on both oil and natural gas prices (I will only discuss oil in this commentary). Consider the following:

  • The world supply of oil is flattening out. Readers may not know this, but the United States today still produce enough oil to satisfy approximately 40% of total domestic demand. The United States also had 22.7 billion barrels of proved oil reserves as of January 1, 2004, eleventh highest in the world. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United States produced around 7.9 million barrels per day during 2003. This is down sharply from the 10.6 million barrels averaged in 1985. The peak of domestic oil supply occurred sometime during the 1970s. Today, total domestic production is at 50-year lows and still falling.
  • While Saudi Arabia (the worlds top exporter and contains 25% of the worlds reported reserves) has claimed that there are and will be no supply problems for the next few decades, they have not been transparent with their reserves data. According to Simmons & Company International, five to seven key fields in Saudi Arabia produce 90% to 95% of its total oil output all but two fields are extremely old with the last major find reported in 1968. The last publicized reserves data was in 1975 when Saudi Aramco was still managed by Exxon, Mobil, Chevron and Texaco. In that report, the worlds best experts determined that all the key fields at that time contained 108 billion barrels of oil in recoverable reserves. If this holds true, then the peak of supply in Saudi Arabia will come soon. Moreover, if the report is correct, then there is really no plan B (unlike during the 1970s when the center of power shifted from the Texas Railroad Commission to OPEC due to the peaking of supply in the United States) crude oil prices will soar.
  • The last frontier for the production of oil (namely the North Sea, Siberia, and Alaska) is now aging. Most companies are now struggling in order to even maintain their current production levels.
  • World oil demand continues to grow. Oil demand in the early 1990s stayed relatively flat (at around 66 to 68 million barrels per day) but over the next ten years to today, world oil demand increased 14 million barrels per day. Today, total world oil demand is greater than 82 million barrels per day. The energy experts who in the early 1990s predicted a flattening of oil demand growth and who wrote off demand growth in developing countries were dead wrong.
  • No new refineries have been built in the United States for the past two decades, even as refineries have been closing every year during that same time period. Refining capacity from 1981 to the mid 1990s also dropped drastically (this author estimates a drop of approximately 6 million barrels per day in refining capacity during that time period). Since 1994, however, an expansion in refining capacity at existing refineries has contributed to an increase in refining capacity from 15.0 million barrels per day to 16.7 million barrels per day (as of today). Despite this expansion, however, domestic refining capacity is still stretched to the limit, as utilization at U.S. refineries is now averaging nearly 90% -- leaving no cushion room if something unforeseen happens.

There are currently three factors at work which should contribute to a continued increase in the world oil price the maturing of supply, growing demand, and the lack of a cushion in refining capacity and low inventories. The culprit has usually been labeled as China, but it is interesting to note that the United States has had virtually no domestic energy policy (in terms of conservation and encouraging the development of alternative fuels) for the last twenty-something years. China demand, however, has soared over the last few years. It is now the second biggest oil consumer, having just surpassed Japan for the title. Demand for oil in China has more than doubled over the last 10 years (to todays 6 million barrels per day), and this amazing increase is projected to continue, especially given the fact that oil demand in China is still a lowly 2 barrels per person per year (compared to 25 barrels per person here in the United States). Furthermore, it is interesting to note that the number of cars in China only totaled 700,000 as late as 1993 and 1.8 million as late as 2001. Today, the number of cars in China totaled more than 7 million and this number could potentially have been much higher if not for the Chinese government intervention in limiting the number of cars that could be sold and driven each year. Now the most scary part: Current oil demand in India is only 0.7 barrels per person per year given this fact, oil demand in India could potentially explode over the next decade barring a huge worldwide economic recession or depression.

I believe my readers should be made aware of the current energy supply/demand situation. Given the above, what is the best course of action for the average American? How about the best course of action if you were the head of a motor company like GM or an airline pilot employed by a legacy airline like Delta? How about the best course of action for a mutual fund manager or a commodity fund manager? Since there are no easy solutions, there should be no easy answers either. In the short-run (three to five years), Americans will have to pay up if we want to drive gas-guzzling SUVs, and legacy airlines like Delta will have to continue to cut costs by probably further slashing labor costs as their first priority. A further improvement in extraction technology should help, but the serious development of alternative fuels will have to start now. I also believe that the next serious decline will be induced by a combination of an oil shock and a rise in interest rates. Readers may recall the relative strength chart that I developed in my August 15th commentary showing the AMEX Oil Index vs. the S&P 500 and the huge potential inverse heads and shoulders pattern in that chart. For now, the relative strength line should bounce around the neckline (the line drawn on that chart) possibly even for a few years but once the relative strength line convincingly breaks above the neckline, crude oil prices could rise to $80 or even $100 a barrel. I sure hope that my readers would not be taken by surprise if gas prices at the pump soars to $4.00 a gallon five to six years from now.

Finally, I want to pose to my readers the following question: Have you taken the time out to learn more about your psychological makeup and how it has affected your investment or trading decisions? What type of person are you when it comes to the market? Are you a so-called buy-and-holder, a swing trader, or a day trader? An independent thinker, a contrarian, a momentum investor or merely a follower? I am asking you these questions because of my following considerations:

  • This author believes that we are currently in a secular bear market in domestic common stocks. While I believe that this current rally still have more room to go, I believe that a cyclical bear market will emerge in due time this upcoming cyclical bear market may even take us back or below the lows that we hit during October 2002. If this is true, then a buy-and-hold portfolio would definitely not work unless you were in natural resources or precious metals mining stocks.
  • When this cyclical bull market tops out, all your friends, relatives, and the popular media will be telling you to buy more or to hold your common stocks. The bears and all bearish thoughts will be ostracized and frowned upon. This has happened in every bull market in everything in all human history. If you are in cash now, would you be able to remain in cash when the top finally comes or will you be unable to resist and buy in because you are afraid of the train leaving the station without you, so to speak?
  • Most people are inherently not good day traders or even swing traders. To be good in even the latter, you need a huge amount of dedication and discipline.

Investing or trading has always been dominated by emotions and always will be. My thinking in starting www.marketthoughts.com has always been that that if I can get my readers to buy in now, it will be a much easier decision for them to sell and hold cash once the DJIA reaches 11,000 or 12,000 or so as opposed to being in cash and staying out for the rest of this secular bear market. 99% of Americans are just not disciplined or dedicated enough to stay in cash during a secular bear market not to mention staying in cash during the entirety of a secular bear market and buying and holding common stocks during the entirety of a subsequent secular bull market. The average human psyche is just not capable of doing this. Because of this, I sincerely believe that success in the stock market (for most people) during the next five to ten years would involve catching the swings at the right or near-right times. For readers who just cannot resist, I am also going to continue to recommend some common stocks at opportune times, but in no way should my readers take my recommendations as gospel and in no way should my readers put all their eggs in one basket. If you are a person who can stay in cash for the next ten years and wait until the Dow Industrials has a P/E below 10 and a dividend yield of over 5%, then more power to you you are either already rich who have no need to make money in the market anyway or you are a very disciplined and independent-thinking person. Most Americans just cannot do that but I am here to help.

Henry To, CFA, is co-founder and partner of the economic advisory firm, MarketThoughts LLC, an advisor to the hedge fund Independence Partners, LP. Marketthoughts.com is a service provided by MarkertThoughts LLC, and provides a twice-a-week commentary designed to educate subscribers about the stock market and the economy beyond the headlines. This commentary usually involves focusing on the fundamentals and technicals of the current stock market, but may also include individual sector and stock analyses - as well as more general investing topics such as the Dow Theory, investing psychology, and financial history.